Fantasy Baseball Week 7| In the Eyes of The Optiongirl

The Fantasy Baseball season is moving along, now six weeks in the books and I’m in second place :). It’s a good time to evaluate your strengths and weakness of your team.  The waiver wire is always out there to pick up some players but I recommend to test the waters and make a trade to improve your team. Now is a good time to go shopping and get a bargain. Buy Low and Sell High.  Some players who have started slow, impatient managers are willing and ready to give up on. These players are worth trading for.  If you propose a trade to another manager you have a chance he will accept. If you do nothing you will get nothing. I traded from my strength at second base and outfield to get a SS and pitching that I needed to help my team. It’s a good idea to trade for a stud in a package, here is my trade:

I gave up :

Brandon Phillips (Cin - 2B)

David Freese (StL - 3B)

Brennan Boesch (Det - LF,RF)

I received        

Hanley Ramirez (Mia - 3B,SS)

Matt Garza (ChC - SP)

I love making trades that I give up 3 players for 2. This allows me to pick up someone I have been watching from the waiver wire to add to my team.

This week I share Matthew Berry of Espn.com 10 guys I’d trade for right now.

Five pitchers to trade for:

Max Scherzer, Tigers: I am a sucker for Max Scherzer. I admit it. I mentioned him as a buy-low last week in my Star Wars column and I am back again. Still striking out 10.34 guys per 9 innings, he’s just currently being killed by a .416 batting average against on balls in play. (It was .314 last season, career .312.) An xFIP of 3.84 shows you that he’s been a lot better than his ERA and WHIP might indicate.

Ervin Santana, Angels: 25 percent of his fly balls have been home runs this season. The league average is 9.1 and it was 10.0 for Santana last season. His well-hit average is tiny (.152), just behind Roy Halladay (.151) and ahead of Yu Darvish (.153). He’s now quietly put together three straight good starts. Last chance to buy below market value.

Josh Johnson, Marlins: Don’t dismiss Wednesday night’s start as “Ah, it’s just the Astros.” It’s a sign of things to come. We discussed Johnson Wednesday morning on the pod and even if he turns things around, he is always an injury risk. But if you’re going for broke, he’s got the upside you’re looking for, and his value will never be lower. He sports a .403 BABIP (career .303), his 63.5 left-on-base percentage is sixth worst in baseball per FanGraphs and he just allowed his first home run of the season in his most recent start. His walks are up from last year and his K/9 is down (still over seven, however), so I’m not saying there aren’t warning signs, but his 2.79 FIP and 3.37 xFIP show a lot better than his 5.87 ERA.

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: His K/9 is at a career high and his BB/9 is at a career low. His BABIP is higher than career norms, his LOB percentage is too low but basically, he’s been done in by home runs, giving up seven so far when he gave up only 15 in 2010. That HR/FB rate will come down and his actual ERA is going to be a lot closer to his 2.65 xFIP than his current 5.61 ERA.

CC Sabathia, Yankees: Not a total buy-low, but if I’m being truthful, I wrote the bulk of this column on Tuesday and had Zack Grienke in here as a buy low. Then he goes out and crushes the Reds, dominating at home once again, making it a good call that no one saw, and probably no longer a buy low. That’s how quickly public perception can change. Sabathia might still only cost you a top 15-20 pitcher price and will be top eight or so the rest of the way, so still a chance for some profit. Striking out guys at his highest rate since 2008 and walking guys at his lowest rate since 2007, the long ball has been what has done Sabathia in this year, as his HR/FB rate this year (12.5 percent) is significantly higher than his career 8.5 percent. He’s not had it be higher than 8.8 percent since 2005. His FIP is 3.09, his xFIP is 2.83 and he has a 3.16 ERA and 28 strikeout to just four walks in 31 1/3 innings.

Five hitters to trade for:

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Let me get this straight, Berry. You want to “buy low” on a guy hitting .281 with six home runs and 26 RBIs? And my answer is yes. Because I think he’s even better than that. He didn’t hit his sixth homer last season until June 10. Nothing in his underlying stats says he’s getting lucky — this is legit. He was a big preseason sleeper for me and he’s been even better than expected. He’s gonna be a 30-plus homer guy with a good average when all is said and done. He’s a top 30 player on our Player Rater right now and while people know he’s good, they don’t realize how good and may be willing to “sell high” on him.

Brian McCann, C, Braves: Go Braves, apparently. His BABIP of .218 is way below his average over the past four seasons (.289) and nothing else appears to be different; he’s striking out less (12.1 percent) than he did last season (16.9), he’s walking about the same and, per Zach Jones of ESPN Stats & Information, he’s missing less (16.5 percent vs. 19.4). Seems like only a matter of time before he snaps out of it.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals: Another guy I discussed last week. Striking out less, walking more, his fly ball rate is up a little; his BABIP of .168 is one of many signs screaming “buy low.” The production is a comin’.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: He’s actually walking more than he ever has in his career and his fly ball rate is up, as well. He’s striking out more as well, so it’s not ideal, but a .219 BABIP (career .306) and a lower home run/fly ball rate than career averages tell me a correction is coming and he’ll be back to being Rickie Weeks. Speaking of Weeks, I’d be buying low on his brother, Jemile Weeks, in AL-only if I could, as well.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox: Predicted a big year for him in the preseason. Stand by that. He’s been among the most consistent players in baseball and underlying numbers suggest he’s gotten unlucky rather than some sudden erosion of skills. Not worried at all.

Some Waiver Wire Suggestion by the Optiongirl:

Denard Span (Min - CF)  Ryan Sweeney (Bos - LF,CF,RF)  Yunel Escobar (Tor - SS)  Alex Rios (CWS - CF,RF)  Yonder Alonso (SD - 1B,LF)  Michael Brantley (Cle - LF,CF) J.A. Happ (Hou - SP) Kyle Seager (Sea - 3B,SS) Casey Janssen (Tor - RP)  Paul Goldschmidt (Ari - 1B) Brian Fuentes (A’s - RP), Dale Thayer (Padres - RP) , Andy Pettitte (NY - P),  Mark Melancon (BOS -RP) and Brian Duensing(Min - RP)

As the 2012 season continues I will be discussing events of the week (tidbits), injury news, waiver wire possibilities, and sharing with you articles that I am reading that will help you achieve your goal of reaching the playoffs, and achieving the goal of being the 2012 Fantasy Baseball champion of your league!  Post your comments questions and feel free to e-mail me any time at Bonniegortler@gmail.com

Bonnie Gortler is a successful stock market guru who is passionate about teaching others about social media, weight loss and wealth. Bonnie is also a huge sports fan who successfully lost over 60 pounds by applying the many lessons learned through her commitment toward personal growth. Choose your very own FREE down-loadable gift from Bonnie by visiting bit.ly/bgoffers. You may also connect with Bonnie via Twitter & Facebook plus subscribe to BonnieGortler.com.

Like this post? Feel free to use it in your blog or ezine as long as you use the above signature in its entirety.