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Support levels on the major averages are intact, despite the decline in early March.  Technical indicators based on market breadth and volume is in the process of working off its overbought condition from the rise since the election.  In addition historical research shows after January and February are strong months; the year has the potential for additional gains. This doesn’t mean a short term decline will not occur, however the odds favor declines could be a buying opportunity.

The optimistic tone of the market has changed somewhat as the expectations of rising rates became a concern for investors.  The 10-year Treasury note yields have been rising steadily since the end of February spooking investors.  There has been an overall weakening in market breadth indicators that need to be monitored. Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate and further gains over the next several weeks.

The overall technical picture of the market remains positive. The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in February.   When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  The Technology sector is acting well. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is not far from its recent all-time high.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Strength of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 03/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.91%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.11%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.50%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.22%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.67% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.11% totaling 40.52%.

The QQQ broke out at 123.00 (red circle above) on January 6 and has been steadily rising. The QQQ has now slightly penetrated the channel objective at 130.00 (top blue channel line), now trading at 131.30. The intermediate trend is up as long as the QQQ remains above the up trendline line (pink). The next upside target is 139.00.   Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ.   Apple has moved sideways for 10 days giving up no ground.  If Apple continues making new highs, this could be positive for the technology sector over the next several months.   If the QQQ falls below 123.00, breaking the up-trend, my bullish outlook would be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  Its bullish MACD has confirmed the price high made in QQQ suggesting any weakness in the QQQ most likely would be temporary.

 

A Breakout in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is Possible?

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.   The S&P 500 (SPY) hit its weekly upside channel on March 1st at 240.32 and pulled back.  Market breath has weakened however the SPY has not given up much ground over the last two weeks, a bullish sign.  If the SPY can get through the old highs, higher projections above 260.00 will be given.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum.  Like the QQQ discussed above, MACD has confirmed the price high in the SPY and is in a clear uptrend.  This is the sign of a healthy market.   Look for the SPY to at least test the old highs.

Summing Up:

Market breadth has been weak as of late after being very strong for many months. There has been no real thrust on the advancing days to get excited about, however not much ground has been given up either.  Market breath indicators have worked off its overbought condition since the election.   Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate and potential further gains over the next several weeks. MACD over the intermediate term for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have confirmed the strength of the overall market.   Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

I would love to hear from you.  Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts March 15, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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How would you like to discover how to create more wealth and well-being on your terms, so you can live the lifestyle filled with the freedom you want?

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February had a strong month of gains following January’s advance.  The Dow Industrials rose 12 straight days.  Healthcare (XLV), Utilities, and Financials were the leading sectors for the month along with solid gains by the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.  Our trading models remain neutral-positive and the tape remains bullish.  Up trends are intact.  Some indices have met their intermediate channel objectives including Regional Banks, (KRE) Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM); however there is a good chance more gains are ahead. The bulls remain in control.

What Do You Want To Watch Now?

The top portion of the chart shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion. After the election the Russell 2000 (IWM) skyrocketed.  The IWM made a high of 138.85 on 12/08/16 overshooting slightly its channel objective at 138.00 (green rectangle).  After making a high, the IWM moved sideways for about 8 weeks, not giving up much ground.

As of March 1st, a potential breakout may have begun.  The upside objective is 157.00 while support is at 133.00.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is overbought, confirming the new high made in IWM.  If the rally stalls MACD can give a sell quickly.  Its bullish, the uptrend from January 2016 is in effect, and MACD has confirmed the IWM high.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Weekly Price (Top), and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

The top part of the chart is the weekly (IWM) Russell 2000 Index / (SPY) S&P 500 Index Ratio (IWM/SPY).  A rising line means the IWM is stronger, and if falling, the SPY is stronger. The IWM/SPY ratio peaked on 12/05/16. The IWM has clearly been losing strength, however the uptrend from January 2016 (black line) is intact.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, already on a sell warning of a potential change of leadership.  Not only is momentum weakening, but at the same time the IWM/SPY relative strength ratio has broken it’s up trend. Also, the average daily trading range for the past 25 days has been more than double the SPY.  Even though the IWM has the potential to be breaking out, if you are heavily weighted in small caps, it may be a good time to reduce your exposure and lower your risk, shifting part of your assets to the SPY.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and Weekly 12-26-9 MACD (Bottom)

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 03/01/17 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.58%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.45%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.66% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.64%.  Investing in the S&P 500 gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The top part of the chart shows the S&P 500 (SPY) weekly trading channel.  The S&P 500 (SPY) has been in an uptrend since December 2016 and steadily rising since the election.  While the Russell 2000 (IWM) is at its top of its trading channel, the SPY still has some room to go before hitting its upper channel at 245.50.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, confirming the highs in the SPY. This is bullish.

Just To Sum Up:

The tape remains strong. Major averages continue to make new highs and pullbacks have been minor.  The Russell 2000 (IWM) has met its intermediate objective.  The SPY has taken over leadership in terms of relative strength. Even though the IWM has the potential for a break out, if you are heavily weighted in small caps, it may be a good time to reduce your exposure, lowering your risk by shifting part of your assets to the SPY.  Our models remain overall neutral-positive so stocks could rise for several more weeks. As long as the Russell 2000 (IWM) stays above its support at 133.00 and the SPY stays above its hourly support of 234.00, you can expect higher highs. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts March 2, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The first week of 2017 was strong after many major averages made new highs in December.  Since that time major averages have paused, digesting their gains.  The Dow Industrials has come close a few times to the key psychological 20,000 level, however so far unable to push through.   The Russell 2000 (IWM) peaked just above its upside objective at 138.00 and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) also made its upside objective at 307.50, however then pulled back.  When the Dow closes above 20,000 there is a good chance other indices will also move higher, surpassing their old highs.

Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate.  The overall technical picture of the market remains positive.  The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in December.  When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  It was also a good sign that there were 490 daily new highs on the NYSE on December 8, the most since May 2013.  These types of readings are more bullish than bearish and suggest higher prices going forward.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is now leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Direction of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its trend channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 01/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 10.87%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.53%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.47%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 4.98%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.75% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.19% totaling 39.79%.

All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election. The QQQ rose 7 straight sessions, closing at a new all-time high.  With its recent strength, it looks like the QQQ could break out from here, (red circle above).

The upside channel objective is 130.00 (top blue channel line).

For now, the trend is our friend, however later this year could be more challenging as the market is in the late stages of a bull market.  As long as the QQQ is above the retracement line from the break out of 112.00 in July 2016 (pink line), now acting as support, periodic declines most likely will be buying opportunities. A break below 112.00 would be considered bearish and suggest a more serious market decline.

Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ which has a favorable monthly MACD pattern turning up from an oversold condition, after breaking its downtrend in September 2016 (chart not shown).  This has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  MACD has broken its down trendline which is favorable; however MACD is not in its most ideal buying position as the turn up didn’t occur from an oversold condition below 0.  This pattern needs to be monitored to see if MACD continues to rise further making a new high picking up momentum, as did the weekly MACD on the Russell 2000 (IWM) from October 2016 – December 2016.

Summing Up:

The overall trend of the market remains optimistic even though the Dow Industrials has been unable to get through the key psychological 20,000 level.  Maybe earning season that begins 01/13/17 will be the fuel that is needed to get through the level.  Upside channel objectives have already been met on the Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) and the SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY).  So far the pullback has not jeopardized the bullish outlook.  In the meantime the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up seven days in a row, reaching a new all-time high and has slightly penetrated its channel suggesting a possible breakout will occur.  Look for strength in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to lead the overall market higher. As long as the QQQ remains above the retracement line from the break out in July 2016 (pink line) above 112.00, intermittent declines most likely will be buying opportunities.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts January 13, 2017


Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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Shifting Your Money MindsetHow much of a difference would a shift in your thinking help in making 2017 your best financial year? Would you be willing to make the change? Especially if you knew it would give you some peace of mind when it comes to your money situation. Would you be willing to do what it takes to improve your circumstances? Hopefully, you’ve answered yes. Please understand that though there are many choices there is one thing that will reap you the largest return and that is to… INVEST IN YOU!!

You can start your journey toward change by learning to separate fact from fiction and by taking responsibility for your actions as you move away from getting caught up with decisions based solely on your emotions. You need to be clear headed if you plan to actually seize the opportunities that unfold and you cannot do so if you are always in reaction mode. You must be proactive in making solid decisions based on real data not on what you ‘wish’ or ‘hope’ for. When you focus on positive thoughts you can also create goals that will inspire you to save and invest. Learn to open your mind and educate yourself by reading, asking questions, and then reading some more. Do your best to immerse yourself in understanding the areas in your life that continue to elude your grasp. Your full attention is required if you expect to master your weak spots. This is especially true when it comes to finances since so many mistakes I see people make are due to their lack of knowledge. Don’t worry, I don’t expect you to take on everything at once. You can start by reading articles from magazines, trade journals and newspapers. These sources are generally well researched and prove most helpful when you arrive at those big decisions that will impact your future.

Becoming a mathematical genius, a stock market guru, or acquiring a degree in finance is NOT necessary to become prosperous. Opportunity exists at every turn if you are prepared to take advantage of it. The journey to wealth begins with a winning mindset and an understanding that every smart decision will bring you even closer to your goals, dreams, and aspirations. When done just right this will also include those financial decisions. But you have to take the first step in changing the way you look at money and how money works within your life. If you have a mental state and belief system that supports the idea “there is not enough” then you will fully live and experience a life of scarcity. Really it’s that simple. You have to shift your money mindset if you want things to be different.

I truly believe more than anything that you can do whatever your mind sets out to do. A life free from financial worry can be yours. You just need to take action so you can create the best life possible for yourself and your family. Your future is up to you! Decide what you want, never give up, and begin now to believe in YOU no matter the circumstances. I certainly do! If you have questions or concerns regarding shifting your money mindset or any area of your finances, feel free to contact me directly at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com.

To your health, wealth and happiness,

Bonnie Gortler

The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

Visit here for your “Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session”

 

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Moneyjumpforjoybag

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.”  

~Warren Buffet

Tracking your investments closely leads to more wealth in the short and long run.  If you are investing in the stock market, it’s a good idea to treat your investment portfolio the way you would if you were running your own business.  Wise investors and business owners track their #money closely.  It’s easy for you to begin tracking your investments.

Could you tell me right now how your investments are doing, or is that information left in the hands of someone else? No need to worry if you are not up to date with the exact figures because with today’s technology it’s simple for you to access your investments in real time.

Why do you want to track your investments closely?

You want to track your investments because the stock market is quite unpredictable. At times the market can move up and down, more or less than 5% in one day. No excuses, it’s a good idea to watch your portfolio.

Are you investing with the money you need to live on, or its money you have put away for your future?  Either way, you don’t want to be in the dark of about situation you may have been able to avoid.

Money bag PixabayAnswer These 9 Questions To Protect Your Money From Surprises

  1. What is your registration on the account? Is it a taxable account or non-taxable?
  2. Are your assets in a CD or money market that has a fixed rate of return?
  3. What is your risk on your investments; how much can you lose?
  4. Are your investments aligned with the current stage of life you are in?
  5. Do you have a company plan where all of your assets are in one single stock or are your assets at a brokerage house that invests for you?
  6. What is your portfolio invested in? (Example: Stocks, Mutual Funds, Bonds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s)?
  7. Are you aware of the potential loss you can have if the stock market went down sharply?
  8. What fees are you paying on your investments?
  9. What percentage of equity and bonds are in your portfolio?

As a savvy investor it helps to take control of your investment by using an array of resource tools to help you track your investments. Protect your money so there are no surprises. In minutes you can visit a reputable website where you can follow what is happening, and prepare yourself at a moment’s notice if you decide an adjustment may be necessary. Accessing your investment portfolio on the web will allow you to read the latest news reports that affect the market or find key information that will disclose a buying or selling opportunity. You can view intra day price movements on stocks, exchange traded funds of all different sectors of the market and track mutual fund performance. You’ll discover by taking an interest in the resources that are available, you will become a more confident and informed investor. Both are keys in your financial success!

I would like to share with you a free and easy resource you can use when educating yourself. It also happens to be my favorite tracking site on the internet, check it out and go to Yahoo.com. Click on tab marked “Finance” to get started. Yahoo provides a wealth of timely information on what’s going on in the investment world in straightforward language meant to help any level of investor. Once there you will find that…

Yahoo Finance Can Help You:vision board wealth for life

  • See how your favorite stock market index is doing.
  • Watch your portfolio daily, check on the price movement of your individual stocks or mutual funds.
  • Export historical data of mutual funds, ETF’s, or stocks,
  • You can compare your investing holdings using their charting tools.
  • See and experiment with the technical indicators. They will give you clues to the trend of the market.

Protect yourself today by tracking your investments. By taking the time to do some research before you invest in the stock market you will avoid possible surprises that you are able to control. The market does not always go up (great fun) and there are some severe downturns (not fun) which can prove costly when you’re uninformed. Take care of your portfolio by tracking your investments closely by becoming a better informed investor. Always ask questions and you will find yourself learning more and more about investing. Whether you are a novice or professional, it’s a good idea to develop good money making habits.  Doing your research beforehand and watching the market closely will only deepen your commitment to continue tracking your investments. Over time you will find your careful attention will create the #wealth you deserve so you may live the lifestyle you desire.

If you like this article then you will love my free training  Stop Struggling Building Wealth  Get your Free Instant Download Register Here:

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Will you be in the same place as you are five years from now? Are you happy and enjoying your life? Focus on what you desire as if it is yours now. Visualize your success and have positive thoughts.

Experiencing challenges teaches you many invaluable lessons.   The number of times you succeed is in direct proportion to the number of times you fail and keep trying. Don’t give up.  Doubts and fears might pop up however they are temporary obstacles.

Be persistent. Focus on one step at a time to reach your goal. You will have a great feeling when you successfully meet the challenge. All great achievements require time, endurance, and a push to get through to move towards your goals.

Surround yourself with others who support you and are positive and avoid the people who give off negative energy or put you down. Openly share your talents with others.

You don’t need to know all your answers in advance.  Have a clear idea of the goal you desire to reach. Take one step at a time and be patient with yourself. Once you muster up the courage to begin, you’ll find the courage to succeed.  If you can believe it you can achieve it.

Share your own formula for creative success.

Bonnie Gortler

The Inspired Wealth & Well-Being Coach

If you like this article you will love this free report, click here:

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Do you believe that news reports are a dependable source for investment advice? There are many experts and websites over the internet with different information. At times it can be quite alarming.  Are you feeling confident that your stock market investments will hold up when the market feels as if you were on a roller coaster ride? Think about the review process that you currently have in place for your investment portfolio, if you are managing your own investments. It’s wise to have an investment strategy that is flexible and allows you the ability to exit quickly in order to reduce your exposure if the stock market is not performing well. You can reduce some of your uneasiness by seeking the advice of an investment professional that can answer your specific questions one-on-one when you are feeling unsure.

It’s wise to review your portfolio and lower your Risk by avoiding big losses. You want a portfolio to suit your needs within a certain time frame depending on your goals and objectives. If you are feeling stressed about your investments here are some ideas to follow that will help you in meeting your investment goals.

Simple Tips to Navigate During Stressful Stock Market Times

  • roller coaster stock-market-cartoons-5-300x2021Watch your investments to make sure they are doing what you expect.
  • No matter the strategy you choose, it’s a good idea to measure the returns and risks compared to a benchmark index for comparison.
  • You could be over weighted in a particular sector under pressure.  It’s a good idea not to have too many of your eggs in one basket.
  • Review your investment to see if any individual stock, exchange traded fund, or bond position exceeds 5% of your overall portfolio.
  • Prepare your plan with an exit strategy to allow you to bounce back before something unforeseen occurs.
  • When altering a security keep the whole portfolio in mind.
  • Individual stocks are volatile; you can make money fast or lose money quickly.
  • If you are investing in individual bonds review the credit rating to see they are good quality bonds.

It’s crucial that you set clear goals and objectives for your success.  Keep an eye on your portfolio so that you will know what is or isn’t performing well.  Be ready, flexible, willing, and prepared to make a change when and if you are feeling stressed by about your investments. Your future finances depend on it!

stock market roller coasterYou can feel good today about putting into motion a plan to build wealth without stress as you move even closer to a life of wealth and well-being.  You want to have a clear plan as you embrace change with new eyes and a renewed commitment toward your future.   Take time to do what is necessary in discovering ways to become more at ease with your finances.   Make the decision to live a healthy wealthy lifestyle filled with less frustration so you can enjoy the life you want.  As you continue your journey forward, remember to always place yourself in the best possible situation for success when creating a life full of wealth and well-being.

Let’s talk.  You are invited to set up your Free 30 minute Wealth and Well-Being Discovery session with me by calling 516-778-8714 or by clicking here or send me an email at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com. I would love to connect with you.

Wishing you health, wealth & happiness,

~Bonnie

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For almost 2 months, the market was quiet, moving sideways to higher. The S&P 500 (SPY) daily change was less than 1%, and then September 9th occurred.  Investors’ perception changed from bullish to bearish, spooked by news of potential rising rates in September, sooner than expected and the S&P 500 fell 2.45%.   It’s been months since heavy selling has occurred. Volatility rose sharply. VIX, (an index that measures fear) increased from an intraday low of 11.65 to a high of 20.51 in two days, a gain of 76%.  There was no place to hide.

The next day, stocks reversed quickly to the upside, however the rally couldn’t be sustained.  Heavier selling the next day was broad based.   Few stocks rose and many fell. The tape showed very poor market breadth readings on heavy volume, including new 52 week highs deteriorating. The trading screen was full of red, emotions rekindled, and a feeling of angst by investors was front and center (including me).   Volatility is back.   Risk has increased.   Market breadth is no longer favorable supporting the market, so stock and sector selection will be more important making money going forward.   Our models have moved from positive to neutral and no longer suggest the market is low risk.

For the short term in favor of the bulls, the major averages are only a few percent from their highs. Support levels on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have held so far.  The unfavorable seasonal period of September, including expiration will soon be behind us.  Institutions will begin to focus on the end of quarter window dressing, preparing for rising rates and the presidential elections. Also supporting the market is Apple, (AAPL) the stock investors had shied away from, out of favor since the highs made in April 2015. Apple (AAPL) has clearly broken its weekly downtrend to the upside, now up from 102.53 on 091216 to trading at 114.91 as of this writing.  If Apple rises more you can look for the technology sector to continue to be stronger than the S&P 500.   In the long run this is a bullish sign for the market.

As of this writing the latest decline looks more like a short-term pullback within an uptrend that could lead to more gains and another test of the highs.   I am cautiously bullish watching closely to see if the support levels hold, and if the intermediate up trend remains in-tact I will give the market the benefit of the doubt.

Chart To Watch Now:

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

spy091516

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.  As of 09/14/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.07%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.39%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.93% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.74%. Investing in the S&P 500 (SPY) gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The top part of the chart shows the S&P 500 (SPY) penetrated its trading channel, getting through resistance at 212-214.00 in July 2016 (red circle).  Notice on the recent sell off, the S&P 500 tested the breakout of the channel making a low of 212.50, holding just above 212.00 acting as key support.   As long as the S&P 500 (SPY) can hold 212.00 and turns up, this would be considered a successful test of the upside breakout in July.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) remains at 228.00 mentioned in the August 18th newsletter.

On the other hand, if the SPY closes below 212.00 for two days, a warning would be given a further decline is likely.   As long as 204.00 on the S&P 500 (SPY) is not violated, the intermediate trend remains intact (the green line) and up.  If violated, the decline could accelerate fast and possibly be more than a short term correction.   Next support 197.00.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum. MACD is now falling, and has generated a sell. It’s very clear momentum is weakening.   It’s a good sign MACD confirmed the breakout and no negative divergence took place.   Tops many times take a long time to form and the confirmation makes me believe another leg up could occur before there is a more serious decline.   Its positive MACD confirmed the breakout and no negative divergence took place.

Summing Up  

There was a short term change in investors’ perception from bullish to bearish that evoked panic selling and caused stock prices to fall sharply with increased volatility.  It looks like there has been a successful test of the upside breakout in July.  Warning signals are starting to form in intermediate momentum indicators that a potential top is looming and upside potential could be limited.  Stock and sector selection will be more important as the year moves forward.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) remains at 228.00.  For now the intermediate trend remain up.  Quiet times are over, expect volatility, and more risk. Review your investments now before the bears take charge and the intermediate trend changes from bullish to bearish.  The key number to watch on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 212.00.   A close below 212.00 for two days would be a warning further decline is likely.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com sharing your thoughts, or ask me any questions you might have.

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Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical result and is not meant to represent the actual performance of any particular investment. Future results cannot be guaranteed. Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed either in any form that the above information is a statement of fact, of opinion, or the result of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisers to consider the suitability of investments discussed above for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels.

 

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I like to have a good clear out and get rid of clutter on a regular basis; now, if truth be told some people will never have to do this because they never accumulate enough clutter in the first place. They move through life smoothly and efficiently, shedding the unnecessary as they go. But for me and a lot of women I know, there’s some clutter still left to clear.clear-clutter-vivenne

Recently I had the bitter sweet experience of clearing out all the rest of my husband’s personal effects at the end of our nine year relationship. It was sad and I cried but I also felt lighter and freer to reclaim my space and my life again – not to mention the luxury of having a whole load of new cupboards and drawers available for storage! As the Single Mum’s Survival Guide (and a single mum myself) I know that many of you may have the physical effects of your old relationship – photos, valentines cards, mementoes of your time together.  Don’t be too hasty to purge here if you have children together because there might be things like photos that your child may really appreciate having in the future- after all, this is documentation of family history. Perhaps they could live in the attic -out of sight- until your child might want to look through them, by which time they might not seem so painful to you to behold. Then there’ll be the mental and emotional clutter – the pain, the hurt, the anger and the regrets. Isn’t it time you had a clear out, to make room for a happy new life?

It may be that your clutter is not emotional in that sense. It could be papers as yet unfiled, magazines as yet unread or bills as yet unpaid. Chances are, though, that every time you look at your clutter, procrastinate about tidying it up or attempt to find something in the piles (or even try to ignore it altogether), it will be adding guilt and draining energy and productivity from your day.

Sometimes we need help clearing out our clutter and that means hiring a coach or other professional to help us to get started and ensure that it is a positive and useful experience. I’d like you to have the opportunity to clear out your clutter now. Haven’t you waited long enough?

Vivienne Smith, Coach and author of The Single Mum’s Survival Guide

 

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