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For the first time this year, the Nasdaq hit a bump in the road. Investors took profits and rotated out of big cap tech stocks. No major damage occurred during the sell-off, but the enthusiasm quieted. Investors used the sell-off as a short term buying opportunity. The trend remains up. Short term support levels are intact. Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term (weeks-months). The bulls remain in control for now.

Technology has higher projections. Top Holdings in QQQ remain in an uptrend.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and
Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  As of 06/20/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.49%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.20%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 7.20%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.47%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 5.01%, and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), 4.38% totaling 41.75%.

The QQQ penetrated the middle channel after a 9-week consolidation trading between 129.38 and 134.00 (the red circle) on 04/24/17.  The upside target is 158.00, an 11.2% gain from present levels, now trading at 140.33 as of 06/21/17 intraday.  The intermediate trend remains up as long as the QQQ remains above the trendline (see the orange line).  Notice how the middle channel and the trend line are very near one another, increasing the significance of key support at 129.00.  If the QQQ falls below 129.00, on a weekly close, this would change the trend from up to down and more caution would be warranted.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9), a measure of momentum.  MACD has confirmed the price high in the QQQ.  The uptrend remains in effect (green line).  Over the next several weeks watch to see if MACD breaks the uptrend, giving a warning of a trend change and potentially more selling could occur in the QQQ, or if MACD turns up again making another new high which would be bullish.

Weekly Price of Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook, (FB) and MACD 12-26-9

 


Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook, (FB) are top holdings of the QQQ and are in weekly uptrends (orange line).  MACD in all four stocks has made highs, confirming their price high which is bullish.   As long as these stocks remain in uptrends the QQQ should continue higher towards the upside objective of 158.00.

Apple (APPL) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top),
and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 


The top part of the chart shows the weekly price of Apple’s active trading channel (purple lines), projecting the upside objective at 175.00.  Apple had a false breakout peaking on 05/08/17 (red circle), then retreated from 156.42 to 142.20, a pullback of 9.1%, more than the 2-3% I expected.   Even with the recent decline, the intermediate uptrend (black line) remains in effect.  Another test of the high is possible. 

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD did go on a sell after Apple’s (APPL) large rise. Even with the MACD sell, I remain optimistic another test of the highs is likely because MACD confirmed Apple’s price high (green circle) and MACD uptrend remains intact.  These confirmations are positive signs another rally attempt is likely.  If either trend is broken to the downside, my bullish outlook would be negated.

In Sum: 

Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term which means upside potential remains greater than downside risk.  Technology stocks continue to lead the market higher despite last week’s weakness.  The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) price, MACD, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook, (FB) are all intact which is bullish. Apple is the only stock to have generated an MACD sell.  If the QQQ falls below 129.00, on a weekly close, this would change the trend from up to down. If the uptrend is broken on either price or MACD on the QQQ more caution will be necessary.   For now give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.  

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this!

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts June 22, 2017

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

 

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 Equity market overview—bullish developments remain in place

The stock market has been extremely resilient, filled with enthusiasm since the presidential election.  Major averages have made new all-time highs on a regular basis.  Market breadth has been mixed from day to day, with Nasdaq breadth not yet confirming the highs in the Nasdaq Composite.  Whenever potential warning signals show up (such as weakening momentum or unnerving world news events) and the market looks like it might be ready to fall, instead the bulls step in to buy and the market rebounds.

Technology has been the star performer, continuing to charge ahead, leading the advance outperforming the other major averages.  Overseas markets have joined the party, high yield bonds remain firm, and VIX (a measure of fear) is near its lows.  All of these are signs of a healthy market. Our models remain overall neutral-positive.  The intermediate and long-term trend remains up. There is no evidence of a change in trend until proven otherwise.   Review my last Systems and Forecasts article dated 05/25/17 for 11 clues you want to watch for a potential trend change.  The trend is your friend so why fight it.

Let’s turn now to an area where we haven’t talked about in a long time—Gold.  You can trade gold bullion with the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).  The charts suggest that gold now appears ready to shine.


It is easy to trade gold bullion using the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)

GLD has a relatively low expense ratio of 0.40 and, like the physical metal, is 1.43 times more volatile than the S&P 500 (SPY).  Investing in commodities entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors.  GLD, for the most part, is not usually whippy; it tends to be trendy, with its price moving steadily in the same direction for extended periods.  After GLD establishes a trend, it could remain in that trend for many months or years at a time.   Gold (GLD) appears now to be at a critical juncture that could represent the early stage of a long term rally.


SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) WEEKLY (ETF) and 12-26-9 MACD

 

The top portion of the GLD chart above shows the weekly active trend channel in effect (blue lines).  Purchasing the GLD is an easy way to participate without holding the physical commodity.

Gold (GLD) bottomed on 12/07/15 at 100.23 after years of decline, being out of favor by investors.   A sharp rally followed, before GLD fell again, retracing most of its gains and bottoming at 107.00 on 12/15/16.  Since hitting bottom last December, GLD has traced out a series of higher low and higher highs.  This week GLD penetrated the high on 04/17/17 at 123.07 and has now broken its downtrend from its peak (orange line) from 07/05/16.   There is more room for further price gains, especially if GLD can penetrate the middle channel.  A break above 125.00 would suggest a potential upside target to 138.00.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a momentum indicator.  MACD had a timely entry from an extreme oversold condition. Only recently has MACD turned positive.  There is plenty of room to the upside before MACD will be in an overbought condition. MACD is still rising, showing no signs of weakness.  The trend of gold has improved.  With equities at new highs, now could be a good time for investors to add some diversification to your portfolio into a sector where the trend has turned favorable, before further interest from other investors and institutions.

SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) MONTHLY (ETF) and 12-26-9 MACD

The top portion shows the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) monthly (ETF) chart. GLD has been out of favor for many years.  GLD peaked in September 2011 (yellow circle). Investors are more optimistic about the precious metal and it’s up 12.5% this year through 06/06/17.   After breaking the shorter term monthly downtrend (pink line), GLD had a brief rally but didn’t have enough strength to break the longer term downtrend from the September 2011 high (blue line).  Most times after weakness prevails for long periods of time, the first rally attempt normally is unsuccessful and not sustainable to continue.  Another test of the low is required.  The second attempt tends to be a safer, profitable and more sustainable.  GLD appears to have made a successful test of the low.   For those of you who are willing to take the risk, I recommend adding GLD to diversify your portfolio, using 107.00 on a close as a stop.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a momentum indicator. MACD has been oversold since June 2013, below 0, now on a buy and gaining strength.   Gold is looking more appealing and it is also gaining some relative strength against the SPY. There is a good chance if GLD does indeed move higher you can expect additional money to flow into this sector from investors and institutions to fuel a further advance.  It would be bullish if GLD breaks above 125.00, (the same as the weekly chart), which would break the monthly downtrend from 2011 (blue line) and then penetrates 131.15, the July 2016 high.

Summing Up:

Our models remain overall neutral-positive.  The stock market remains resilient and continues to work its way higher with the bulls in control.  There is no evidence of a change in trend until proven otherwise.  An area out of favor with investors appears ready to shine. GLD appears to have made a successful test of the low.  A buying opportunity has developed in GLD on weekly and monthly charts.  I recommend adding GLD to diversify your portfolio, using 107.00 on a close as a stop.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

 

If you like this article, then you will love this!

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts June 08, 2017

 



Disclaimer
: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Technology continues to lead the overall market and outperforms other major averages.  The Nasdaq Composite is stronger than the S&P 500 Index, a condition that has characterized more favorable overall market climates historically.  In May, we saw the first noteworthy selling that generated the most fear and angst seen in many months among investors (including me).  But the decline was short-lived as stocks have rebounded.  Broad market indexes are resilient as price trends remain intact.  Our models remain overall neutral-positive.

But we are not in the clear.  Leadership has been thin.  Stocks making new 52 week highs on the New York Stock Exchange index have been rather lackluster.   The bellwether Financials Sector SPDR (XLF) was a hot sector early in the year.  However, in recent weeks financials are lagging, not a good sign for the bulls.

The momentum of the rally has been diminishing over time and warning signals are starting to appear.  As discussed below small-caps remain in their 16-month old price uptrend that began (on monthly charts) in February, 2016.  However, the relative strength trend of small caps outperforming large caps that also started in February 2016 has now been broken.  In general, when financials and small caps are weak, this is not a sign of a healthy market.

So the question remains: will the major averages will break out to new highs and begin another leg up, or will the major averages stall, turn lower and usher in a more meaningful decline?

11 Clues You Want To Watch For a Potential Trend Change

  1. Whether overseas markets continue to rise or begin to stall and work their way lower. Watch Emerging Markets (EEM), China (FXI) and Europe (IEV) as benchmarks.
  2. Look at the Technology sector if it continues to make new highs or suddenly turn down. Monitor Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Semiconductors HOLDR (SMH).
  3. The Value Line Geometric Composite, an unweighted average of roughly 1700 U.S. stocks regains strength to take out its high at 526.83 on 04/26/17. This would indicate more broad participation rather than only a few stocks rising.
  4. Observe the action in the Biotechnology sector (XBI). Strength would indicate investors are willing to take on more risk.
  5. The Transportation Average (IYT) has been weak, well below its high on 03/01/17 at 173.88. If the IYT continues to decline this would suggest a strong rally from here is unlikely.
  6. The Financial Sector regains relative strength vs. the S&P 500 (SPY). Watch XLF and KRE as benchmarks.
  7. High Yield Bonds remain firm instead of weakening and turning lower. Use HYG or JNK as a benchmark.
  8. Apple continues to be a leader (APPL). Upside objective 175.00.  A break below 150.00 on a closing basis could portray weakness to follow in other technology stocks.
  9. Volatility remains low. Look out if VIX takes out the previous high from 05/18/17 at 16.30.
  10. New 52 week lows on the New York Stock Exchange Index remain low, presently at 33. An increase to over 150 would not be a good sign.
  11. Watch the last hour of trading. If the major indices closed near the highs of their daily range consistently this would be bullish.  If the major average closed near the low end of their daily range consistently this would be bearish.

Warning:  A potential trend change has been given by Russell 2000 (IWM).

Russell 2000 Index (IWM) ETF Weekly Top and (IWM) Russell 2000 Index / (SPY) S&P 500) Ratio (Bottom)

 

The top portion of the chart shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.  After the election last November, small caps lead the advance.
Strong gains followed in January and February this year peaking on 04/26/17 at 141.81.  The IWM has been unable to generate enough momentum to break out and regain the strength it had early in the year because investors have favored large-cap growth stocks.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been in an uptrend since 02/01/16. The intermediate uptrend will remain intact as long as the IWM is above 130.00.   If the intermediate trend is violated, this would not be a good sign and the likelihood of a potential serious decline would increase.

The bottom part of the chart is the Weekly Russell 2000 /S&P 500 (IWM/SPY ratio).  A rising line means the IWM is stronger, and if falling, the S&P 500 is stronger.  The IWM ratio was steadily rising with a few small turn downs but holding above the uptrend line (purple line).  However, the uptrend from 02/01/16 has been broken.

Summing Up:

A warning of a potential trend change has just been given. I recommend reviewing your portfolio to make sure you are not overly exposed to small caps.  Historically, when IWM is stronger than the S&P 500 (SPY) it has been a bullish condition for the broad market. This condition is no longer supporting the market. Risk has increased.  For those of you who have large holdings, I suggest shifting your assets out of small caps and move into S&P 500 (SPY) or raise cash and wait for a safer buying opportunity later this year.  If the IWM fails to take out its high and turns down below support at 130.00, you can expect further weakness in IWM and could potentially spread into other sectors of the market.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this!

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Grow Your Wealth and Well-Being E-Book HERE

 


*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts May 25, 2017

 


Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Are you ready for more happiness in your life? Most people are caught up in all that can go wrong that they miss out on all the joy right in front of them. Finding mine has taken years of work and self-discovery. As I look back on my own journey what has helped me the most is in being thankful for the lessons learned and the ability to embrace each experience by being present in the moment. As it turns out this past month turned out to be one of my happiest yet. It was jam-packed with excitement, family time, personal development training, and celebrations to treasure for a lifetime. 

My adventure started with a Mother’s Day filled with fun and an array of emotions as I thought of my own mom (RIP) and everyone who may be missing their mom on such a special day. Time has helped me to heal so the day was not as sorrow filled as it has been in years past. Over time I’ve learned to focus on the good times we shared instead of being sad I’m not with my mom. Redirecting my focus has allowed me to enjoy the day by being fully present for my own family. If you’ve lost someone so special then you too know and understand how it feels. My hope is you were also able to fully enjoy your day. My day started with my husband, Neil giving me a beautiful bouquet of flowers and making me a delicious breakfast. Then my daughter gave me a certificate saying we were going to spend time together at Muse Paint bar creating a picture of flowers (we had so much fun together). Then before I could soak everything in, Neil gave me tickets to see Barry Manilow! I was so surprised and still get excited all over again just thinking about it. Barry happens to be my most favorite singer for the past 40 years and I never get tired of seeing him perform. We finished off the night with more family and had a barbecue together sharing laughs, memories, and plenty of love. It was a perfect day.  

Last month was great for my personal development as well since I was also able to attend a Retreat Weekend in Portland Oregon. It was there I had the opportunity to see my coach face to face and meet up with friends who also take part of the six-month mastermind program (a customized blend of group coaching in an environment where it is a safe place to talk openly filled with continuous learning). There was so much wisdom shared, and genuine support from one another. While spending time together, we were challenged to stretch beyond our limiting beliefs and also learned the importance of living in the moment for an optimal life experience. It was life changing and filled with many a-ha moments. Not only for myself but also for everyone within this group. A very special time I will always cherish.

After spending my alone time in Oregon it was back to New York to take part in one of the proudest moments any parent can have. My daughter, Amanda completed her Masters in Special Education with honors.  As it turned out the honors ceremony was on the first day back after I returned from my trip. Needless to say it was a busy day. That weekend we went to the graduation ceremony to celebrate her success. Neil and I are very proud of her accomplishments, and know without a doubt she will make a difference in the lives of every child she touches and will continue to be a positive influence in the years to come.

 

 Every single second is an opportunity to change your life because in any moment you can change the way you feel.” – Rhonda Byrne

 

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Do you find yourself getting frustrated, distracted or irritated easily? It is possible to start your day with less stress, anxiety, and feeling more refreshed. You can create more joy in your life with a positive mindset. Simply make a commitment to yourself by incorporating disciplined daily rituals so you can be at your best.  

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  • Raise your energy, will increase your happiness and you will have more success.
  • Help you be more optimistic and give you a feeling of more confidence.
  • Help you relax.
  • Help your focus to achieve the tasks or goals you desire.
  • Help you build a strong mental attitude.

Some examples of easy daily rituals for more happiness:

  • Have a healthy breakfast.
  • Sit quietly for 5 minutes taking a few deep breaths.
  • Focus on what is positive in the moment.
  • Learn to focus on what you want, not what you don’t have.
  • Move your body – create a short exercise routine that you like and will do each day.
  • Read for 5 minutes on an area in life that interests you.
  • Write down 6 goals you want to accomplish. Circle the top 3 and focus on them until complete, not doing the other ones. In this way, you will see what is most important and a priority to you.

By taking consistent action with your daily rituals you will create happiness and experience more joy in life. We all lead busy lives but you can still take the time to celebrate special times with your family and friends. Life has so much to offer and as your journey continues, learn to become mindful of each moment and enjoy the process of growth along the way.  Keep your momentum going forward. Choose what you desire in life, and be open to new challenges and opportunities. Life is amazing, be happy and continue to help others along the way. 

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No one really knows if the old adage sell and go away in May will hold true for 2017. What is known is May has begun quietly as the S&P 500 remains in a narrow trading range on less than inspiring momentum. However, the present tape action is a far cry from bear market action.

The technology sector continues to soar to new highs. In the 02/16/17/ Issue of Systems and Forecasts I brought attention to the possibility of another leg up for Technology, revisiting the article on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout. This indeed has occurred. The QQQ original objective was 130.00, followed by 139.00.  On 05/09/17 the QQQ made an intra-day high of 138.93, meeting the upside objective.

 

The Tape Remains Mostly Bullish


PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index)
Weekly Price and Trend Channels
(Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  The top holdings are Apple, (AAPL), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Facebook, (FB) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) and all have been climbing.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), led by Apple is red-hot and looks as if there is more room to the upside.  In the latest issue, I pointed out it’s necessary to watch and see if MACD made a higher high or if MACD turns down. Notice the lower chart.  MACD made a new high confirming the high made by QQQ. This confirmation suggests the odds favor an extension of the rise and has bullish implications going forward over the next several weeks to months.  Any weakness now should be contained and only be temporary before another rally attempt would occur.

If the QQQ falls below support at 129.00, just under where the QQQ consolidated early this year, much more caution is necessary.


In Sum:

The QQQ intermediate uptrend remains in effect (orange line). The upside target for the QQQ is 157.00.  The breakout is in process. Time is now on the side of the bulls.


Apple Charges Ahead Leading the Technology Sector Higher

The top half is a price chart showing the weekly high-low-close of Apple since April 2014.  Apple was out of favor in 2015, until June 2016 when investors selling turned into buying.  A clear uptrend is in effect (black line). As long as Apple is above the trend line, the intermediate trend is up.

Apple has had explosive momentum in 2017, going from 117.91 to 154.08, a gain of 30.68 %. Notice how Apple this week has penetrated the upper channel. This is a bullish breakout giving a new channel upside objective to 175.00 (orange line).  A test of the breakout could occur in the near term, amounting to only 2.00% – 3.00%.  However the recent thrust suggests the advance will continue and declines would be very minor.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD has confirmed the Apple’s price high (green circle) similar to the QQQ.  A solid uptrend remains intact.


Summing Up:

Our equity models remain overall neutral–bullish, a potentially favorable market climate, although there has been an increase in risk. Technology stocks remain the leader supporting the overall market.  MACD on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and Apple (AAPL) has confirmed the recent price highs. The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq (QQQ) and Apple (AAPL) are solidly intact.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has an upside target of 157.00 and Apple has an upside target to 175.00.  This could be the year where you don’t want to go away and sell in May.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! Free Instant Access to Grow Your Wealth and Well-Being E-Book HERE

 

*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts May 11, 2017

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The short-term decline in April has ended.  The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all successfully tested key support levels this past week.  The recent news of possible tax cuts sooner rather than later, an optimistic perceived outcome to the election in Europe, and a good start to the earning season has spurred a potential new leg of the advance.   Overhead resistance on some indices exists.   However, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has made a new high, has broken through resistance giving new upside projections, which could carry the overall market higher for the next several months.   More time is needed to know if other averages will follow suit or if the present rally will fizzle.   However my prediction is there is more room to the upside.

Technology leads the way.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  As of 04/24/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.84%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.20%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.80%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.38%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.70%, and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), 4.10% totaling 41.02%

The QQQ has been rock solid this year, leading in relative strength vs. the S&P 500, and up almost twice the gains of the S&P 500.  The QQQ has slightly penetrated the middle channel after a 9-week consolidation, where the QQQ traded between 129.38 and 134.00 (the red circle), now trading at 135.14.  The bullish outcome is not a surprise.  (See my article in the 03/15/17 Systems and Forecasts: Weekly MACD confirms the advance: Higher prices anticipated).  The next upside target is 157.00, a 16.2% gain from present levels. The intermediate trend remains up as long as the QQQ remains above the up trendline line (orange).

Because the initial upside thrust since the election was so strong, the expectation the first decline wouldn’t be significant is exactly what has occurred.  The present breakout needs to be watched closer.  Keep an eye on how Apple (AAPL) performs, the largest holding of QQQ.  If the Nasdaq continues to show leadership, making new highs, then it could support the market and help the technology sector over the next several months.  

On the other hand, if the QQQ falls below 129.00, retracing its recent gains, a warning sign of a potential change of trend would be given.  If the QQQ falls below 125.00 breaking the uptrend, (orange line) more caution would be warranted with possibly a larger correction on the horizon than the decline in April.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9), a measure of momentum.  It was a bullish MACD pattern that confirmed the price high made in QQQ in February 2017, before the recent consolidation.  The uptrend remains in effect (pink-line).  The QQQ has made a new high.  If MACD turns down failing to make a new high, a negative divergence would occur.  Over the next several weeks watch to see if MACD makes a higher high.  This would be bullish.  If MACD turns down, this would complete the negative divergence pattern and would be considered bearish. 

Summing Up:

Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term which means upside potential remains greater than downside risk.  Technology stocks continue to lead the market higher.  After many weeks of consolidation and weakening momentum, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has broken through resistance giving new upside projections to 157.00 which could carry the overall market higher for the next several months.  The advance seems to be broadening.  Market breadth is improving, financials and small caps have come to life again gaining in relative strength. These are all signs of a healthy market.  The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq (QQQ) price and in MACD is intact.  If the uptrend is broken on either price or MACD more caution will be necessary, as the odds would increase the advance will fizzle and no longer sizzle. For now, the bulls remain in control, continue to enjoy the ride. 

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts April 27, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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Admit it, you’re stressed and sometimes feel overwhelmed to the point where it seems as though there is no end to all the busyness.  Time is such a precious commodity and also highly coveted when you discover there isn’t enough of it within the day to accomplish what you want to do.  Tell me, when was the last time you did something to inspire you and make you feel good? If you’re like most professionals it’s been longer than you can remember. Redirecting your focus toward your well-being is an important step in helping you to relax, have fun, and feel increased inner peace. When you do, you “get in the zone of life”, which inspires confidence and brings balance so everything within work and home flows better. Doing what you love makes every part of your life better and can greatly impact how you experience your world. Don’t wait weeks and months to pass by. Now is the time to take action! You only need to redirect your attention to receive the maximum benefits. 

How you create a balance between your personal obligations and work demands makes the difference in how quickly you get in the zone of life and begin doing more of what you love to do. Striking a balance between the two will allow you to start doing what you love to do NOW instead of later and also add an abundance of tranquility and inner peace within your life. Start the process by acknowledging there is work to be done and decide you will schedule time in your day solely dedicated to those things that bring you joy. Schedule some “me time”. You deserve fun in your life. You can choose to experience these times of dedicated joy alone, with family, or with friends. What matters most is you spend the time. Your brain needs to decompress and to get away from it all too; and there is nothing better than a juicy chapter in a book, listening to music, a short or long vacation, or starting the day in meditation watching the sunrise to renew your spirit and well-being.

Carving out time is one area you will need to plan to really get in the zone of life. You also want to learn how to be in the now so you can fully enjoy the experience instead of think of those things causing you stress. This can be more than challenging especially if you are in the habit of being “on” all the time or you put a lot of pressure on yourself.  I know this feeling well and the challenge for me was in quieting my brain enough so I could fully enjoy my “me” time. I found myself time and again getting caught up in the moment and feeling fearful wondering what someone might be saying and or even judging myself on what I was doing (or not doing) at the time. I wasn’t in the zone of life. What worked for me was practice and meditation.  I made it a priority to schedule the time to focus training my mind to silence those thoughts so I could learn to enjoy more what was right in front of me. This has made a world of difference. I’m less stressed and have a better handle on those feelings of overwhelm. (I’m not perfect, I do have times where I slip up). What I realized was I didn’t know how to fully embrace my “me” time experience before moving on to something else. Those feelings of peace and tranquility alluded me until I learned the importance to celebrate my successes each step of the way. It’s OK to put yourself first and to meet your get in the zone of life goal.  Pat yourself on your back and enjoy your moment of greatness in what you have created. You’re worth it!

Another barrier to getting into the zone of life is focused misdirection. In the past, I would create large lists of all the things I had to do. Large never ending lists on various pieces of paper (all of which was overwhelming in itself), scratchpads, or within notebooks. I found I would focus on these various lists and the many minute details within each task. These unfinished lists turned into me resisting action because I kept telling myself I can’t’, I’m afraid, and/or it’s not good enough. As a result, I turned to food when feeling stressed and fearful. I was so overwhelmed by what I had to do I was unable to create the positive momentum needed in order to even start. I was sabotaging myself over and over again to the point it would take months to take a small step forward on projects I really wanted to do. I would worry about the future and focus on what could go wrong. I would get angry at myself and then find myself frustrated. Totally not a good place to be! Don’t do like I did. There was no benefit to these choices.  Decide now you will focus on your most important item first. Breathe deeply and re-center if you find yourself falling back into old habits. Learn to embrace the process by not focusing on the end result but by focusing on the one specific task at hand. Step into your fear a little bit at a time and you will be able to take on later. Remember to focus more on what you want, instead of what you don’t want.  I had to learn worry won’t make things happen faster or make things better. Use your time redirecting your focus by visualizing the positives that will come from you moving through your fear and stepping forward toward completion. When you let go of the fear, relax your mind, and learn to trust yourself and others, you will get in your zone and become a believer in all you can do. This alone can have a major impact in your life. It’s something you will need to work on and I’ve put together some additional ideas to help you when you are not in balance and allow you to get into the zone so you can live life to the fullest.

 11 Easy Ways How You Quickly Get in the Zone of Life

  1. Don’t sweat the small stuff. Many times, what is bothering you isn’t really very important and work itself out within a few days.
  2. Relax instead of worry. Be grateful for what you have, and make choices to do what you love to do.
  3. Take better care of you. Get to know yourself better giving you more confidence in your professional and personal life.
  4. Write down your favorite way to spend the day, and then schedule an appointment with yourself on your calendar. For example: Have a spa day, or buy yourself a gift you have wanted for a long time and haven’t given yourself the permission to buy.
  5. Shift your mindset to a more positive one. If you are feeling a little down, grab your pen and paper. Create a list of 10 things to make you smile. Choose one and do it.
  6. Soothe your soul with something you love, gives you a big pick me up, and a burst of energy.
  7. Do the kindest thing you can do for yourself if you are sad, or maybe in pain whether it’s physical or emotional.  My favorite thing is to begin each day with soft spiritual music, and finish my week with a clean desk at work, and have a 2-hour massage.  
  8. Don’t ever give up on your dreams or goals. Believe miracles happen each and every day.
  9. Be positive and enthusiastic.  Don’t complain, instead smile and be the one who brightens up a room when you are around others.
  10. Be brave. Go out of your comfort zone.  Keep it simple. You can do anything you set your mind to. 
  11. Make it a habit each day of doing one act of kindness for other people. You can change their life. They will feel good and you will too.

After you’ve started the process you may find you are at a point where you are not making progress in getting into the zone of life. If this does happen then I urge you to keep pushing forward and to refocus your attention on the feelings of success you’ve experienced in the past. You may not see it but you have made progress in making creating a shift in your life. Keep in mind it takes the time to change habits you have developed over a lifetime and may not have been in your best interest because you are now shifting the tides within an ocean has only brought you stress and overwhelm. Decide today you deserve fewer struggles, more enjoyment in life, and to feel real inner peace. Don’t allow your schedule to be so full you aren’t putting you and your well-being first. Stop worrying about the future and what might happen. Avoid focusing on your fear and focus on getting into the zone of life! I have learned from experience stepping into the fear and allowing yourself to feel it creates inner growth faster than if you simply do nothing. It takes practice and patience with you to break the cycle and by deciding to “do it (as my coach says) will put action behind the fear and push it out of the way. Once you take action, you will get better and better at it and in time your fear dissipates. By digging deep for your inner courage, you will discover it will become second nature to you and with each new challenge you will be stronger and better equipped. Overcome your initial feelings of fear by asking for help and turning to someone who supports you such as a friend, an accountability partner, or an experienced coach. When you take action, you will be amazed at how you good feel. 

You have a choice every day on how you will handle and the attitude you will embrace for what shows up in your life. Decide today to look for what you can learn and choose to only focus on what is positive. Don’t get caught up in frustration, anger, or lose focus on those negative thoughts coming into your mind. It’s a waste of valuable time and good energy. Train yourself to stop for a moment, take a long deep breath, and refocus your attention on what you want. Get into the zone of life by knowing what is important to you and put yourself in the mix by carving out time for doing what you love to do. Making this adjustment in your life will create more wealth and well-being so you can live a lifestyle filled with the happiness, inner peace, and all the freedom you want and desire. 

 

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During the past five weeks the stock market held its own, holding key support levels and avoiding any major losses. The S&P 500 remains near its highs, holding above key support as it has been consolidating within a narrow trading range. Nonetheless, bullish momentum slowed down in US equities during March. This is normal considering the huge upside thrust that occurred in January and February. The Nasdaq Composite continues to lead the S&P 500 in relative strength, a bullish sign.

Fewer stocks have made new highs during the advance because of the decrease in momentum. Financials and small caps were the leaders of the advance in the aftermath of the election. However, they have weakened considerably in the past month. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. On any weakness look for buying opportunities with the expectation of another rally attempt taking place sooner rather than later.

Buying Opportunity in Energy

One of the worst performing sectors in the first quarter was energy. But that might be about to change. The short and intermediate term has shifted from down to up. This could present an opportunity to buy low rather than chasing a rally.

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE Daily (TOP) and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom

The top chart is the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) that tracks the Energy Sector Index, investing in common stocks in the Oil, Natural Gas, and Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration industries.  As of 04/7/17 its top 4 holdings are Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 23.11%, Chevron (CVX) 15.47%, Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) 8.23%, and Conoco Phillips (CON) 4.66%, totaling 51.47%. Be aware the XLE is an aggressive investment vehicle.  The XLE 90-day volatility is 1.72 compared to the S&P 500 of 1.00.

The XLE peaked on 12/16/2016 at 78.45 and steadily declined through the first quarter of 2017, making lower highs and lower lows forming a down trend. The XLE bottomed 03/27/17 at 67.86. The downtrend was broken on 04/05/17.   However, the XLE reversed to close near its lows suggesting the breakout could be false.   There was no follow through to the downside so investors stepped in to buy.  On 04/10/17 the XLE closed clearly above the downtrend line and is in the process of testing the breakout.  Short term support is at 70.00, resistance is at 73.00.

The bottom half of the chart shows the 12-26-9 MACD, a technical indicator that shows you  changes in direction, momentum, and strength of the stock’s price. MACD generated a buy in late March from an oversold condition below 0, is gaining momentum, and has broken its downtrend from its December 2016 peak after moving sideways since February.  This suggests the downside risk should be contained in the near term.

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE Weekly (TOP) and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top portion shows the weekly SPDR S&P Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE).  The XLE was trending higher for 2016, peaking at 78.45.  This year the XLE has been the opposite, out of favor by investors, much weaker than other sectors to start the year.  The XLE this past week broke the weekly downtrend (purple line), shifting the intermediate trend to up.  Resistance is at 76.00.  A break below the recent low at 67.86 would negate my near term bullish outlook and increase the odds of a further decline.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD gave a sell in January. However, MACD has now reset, falling to below 0.  Downside momentum has subsided.  If the XLE turns up now, MACD would generate a fresh buy signal supporting the bullish case the XLE is ready to resume its bullish trend from 2016.

In Sum:

The market continues to be resilient.  The S&P 500 is holding above key support consolidating within a narrow trading range.   Another rally attempt toward new highs is possible sooner rather than later. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls on any weakness looking for buying opportunities.  A buying opportunity has developed in the energy sector (XLE).  The short and intermediate trend has shifted from down to up.  As long as the XLE remains above 67.86 you can anticipate higher prices in the near term and risk to be limited.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.


If you like this article, then you will love this!
Click here for a free report:
Top 10 Investing Tips To More Wealth

 

*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts April 13, 2017

Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book
Journey To Wealth

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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