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The stock market has been somewhat split since the election.   Some sectors performed better than others.  Investors sold consumer staples, health care, biotechnology and big cap tech stocks.  It was an ugly month for bonds, as interest rates rose; yields soared, initiating heavy selling.  The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Market Index lost 3.6%, its worst showing in twelve years.

It wasn’t all doom and gloom, money rotated into energy, financials; mid and small cap stocks and they soared higher. As the major indices have moved to new highs, investors have become more optimistic as shown by the Investors Intelligence Sentiment readings (which are contrary indicators).   As of 11/29/16 it showed 56.3 % Bulls and 22.3% Bears.  These readings are not yet at extreme high levels where historically market peaks have formed, however they are not showing signs of pessimism as they did early in the year at the February lows.

Our market timing models remain overall neutral-positive, suggesting the potential for further gains.  The tape action has improved in early December. It has now been almost 4 weeks since the election and it appears the next leg of the rally could be in process.  (See the 11/10/16 Systems and Forecasts article “Wait for the Dust to SettIe”).

A few optimistic signs:

  • Overseas markets have stabilized. The Ishares China (FXI), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Mexico (EWW) are all higher than the 11/09/16 close.
  • Long term interest rates have stopped rising. TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Yr. Treasury Bond (ETF) is no longer making lows and has turned up.
  • High Yield Bond Mutual Funds have stopped falling and have turned up from their lows.

I would like to see continued improvement in market breadth, more stocks making new 52 week highs, along with the big cap technology stocks joining the advance.   Enjoy the rally for now but be ready with your exit strategy if market conditions change.

What Chart You Want To Watch Now:

 iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Weekly Price (Top), and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

The top portion of the chart shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.  The IWM failed to take out its high on 09/22/16, started to retrace it gains and then slightly penetrating support at 117.0.  After the election the IWM skyrocketed.   The IWM rallied 11% in November making a new high on 11/11/2016, and is less than 2% away from reaching its channel objective at 138.00.  (See Systems and Forecasts 09/29/16 issue).

A break below short term support at 124.00 would change my bullish outlook.   If the IWM closes above 138.00 for two days the likelihood would increase the odds that another leg up potentially to 157.00 is possible.

For confirmation of further strength keep an eye on the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY), which has been on a roll, achieving  its  first upside projection at 303.00.  A break above 307.50, would confirm another leg up is likely.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, (a momentum indicator).  The entry was well-timed, rising sharply after breaking the short term down trend (black line).  MACD is overbought, confirming the new high made in price.  The bulls remain in control.  The small caps (IWM) are stronger than the S&P 500 (SPY) for the intermediate and long term.   I continue to expect small caps to outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) however there could be more volatility and potentially more risk investing in the IWM.

Summing Up:

Our models remain overall neutral-positive.   December is a favorable seasonal period historically. Interest rates have stopped rising, bonds have stabilized, and overseas markets are heating up joining the advance.   Market breadth is improving, small and midcaps are near their upper channel objectives, close to giving a higher projection, suggesting the market will continue to advance.  If the IWM closes above 138.00 for two days the likelihood would increase that another leg up potentially to 157.00 is possible. The bulls remain in control.  I remain optimistic the stock market will work its way higher into year-end and no serious decline will occur.

What level are you looking for the Russell 2000 (IWM) to reach?

Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.  I would love to hear from you.

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts December 08, 2016

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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What dreams do you have? Decide to take action to achieve what you desire now instead of waiting for tomorrow.  You can start at anytime. Why wait? Seize the moment. The time is now. 

You hold the key that  unlock all the possibilities that stands in your way. You can do anything you set your mind to. Keep your dreams alive.

Sit quiet, see it, feel it and live it. Believe you will succeed.  When you can visualize what you want, the impossible becomes possible!  

To your health, wealth and happiness,

Bonnie

The Inspired Wealth & Well-Being Coach

Survivor – Eye Of The Tiger lyrics
Risin’ up, back on the street
Did my time, took my chances
Went the distance
Now I’m back on my feet
Just a man and his will to survive

So many times, it happens too fast
You trade your passion for glory
Don’t lose your grip on the dreams of the past
You must fight just to keep them alive

[Chorus]
It’s the eye of the tiger
It’s the thrill of the fight
Risin’ up to the challenge
Of our rival
And the last known survivor
Stalks his prey in the night
And he’s watching us all with the
Eye of the tiger

Face to face, out in the heat
Hangin’ tough, stayin’ hungry
They stack the odds
Still we take to the street
For the kill with the skill to survive

[Chorus]

Risin’ up straight to the top
Had the guts, got the glory
Went the distance
Now I’m not gonna stop
Just a man and his will to survive

[Chorus]

The eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger

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Kathy money_treeInvesting can be frustrating because sometimes the market is tricky, but it can also be so rewarding if you’re willing to stick with a plan that can drive you toward improving your investing success. Are you finding it more challenging to make money investing in the stock market and would like to experience more success? Would you like to be less stressed and confidently build more wealth? You don’t have to be a mathematical genius, a stock market guru, or have a degree in finance to be prosperous and make money investing. You can master the skills needed with some simple trading and money-making investing strategies that you can assist you in accumulating wealth.

Increase your odds of more successful investing today

Being profitable, takes discipline, a winning mindset, and managing your risk. Controlling loss is the secret to success and in being a profitable trader or investor. The key to growing wealth with investing is to control and manage risk so that you can achieve your investment goals. Do what is necessary not to let your emotions get in the way. Set realistic goals, be patient with yourself and create guidelines that are suitable for you and that are easy to follow. It’s the only way you’ll stay the course. Start now using investment practices to increase the odds for more victories when building and sustaining your wealth by using the insights listed below.

Simple Tips Toward Improving Your Investing Success

  • Develop a trading plan with a written set of guidelines that specifies when you will enter and exit a trade before you purchase any security so that you will not build losses.
  • Follow your plan. Don’t change your rules in the middle of a trade because this will most likely be the wrong decision.
  • Trust your intuition.
  • Find a trading style that what works for your stage in life that you are in so you are comfortable. Your risk tolerance is different than others.
  • Don’t make trading decisions based on emotions. Fear and greed will lead to bigger losses that will take longer to make back.
  • Don’t use money that is for day-to-day living expenses. This will lead to poor decisions, excess stress, and forcing trades at the wrong time that will not be profitable.
  • Use the internet. There are many sources with resource tools to help make your investing easier leading you to more success and profits.
  • Manage risk by protecting first. Set a stop loss to manage risk and protect your capital to avoid large losses. Don’t place too much money in any single investment in case something unexpected happens that could wipe out your investment portfolio.
  • Learn from your losses that occur so you will not make the same mistake twice and in turn this will help you be a more successful investor.

When working toward improving your investing success you must develop a lifestyle plan that has your money working for you and is also suited to meet your overall needs You can improve your lifestyle by investing wisely and taking the responsibility to control your destiny. While on your journey to wealth, you will find that you will constantly have make decisions and this may feel overwhelming but you must do your homework and Believe in YOU! When you become mindful you will find it easier to make decisions that accommodate your lifestyle and improve your financial well-being. You’re on the right track and have the power to create change in your investing success.

If you like this article then you will love these wealth tips. Download Here: https://bonniegortler.com/10-wealthtips/

I would love to hear from you. Contact me at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com.

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Start your day with a positive thought. Your attitude is key to your happiness.  If you are angry, frustrated and focusing on what is not good, then each day will be  more of a challenge and less enjoyment of life.  How you perceive and view your challenges will make a difference in your life,   Instead of anger, negativity and fear choose happiness. Life is precious.

Make a decision to  be patient, loving, and not so hard  on yourself.    Live life to the fullest and be the one to achieve your dreams and desires.

Watch the video below and be inspired now.

To your health, wealth and happiness,

 ~Bonnie

The Inspired Wealth & Well-Being Coach

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mastering-mutual-fundsThere is still time to take care of your finances in 2016 while you are enjoying the holiday season. Tax planning is important to growing your wealth. If you are invested in mutual funds, now is the time to find out if your mutual fund will be paying year–end distributions of Capital Gains. You pay tax on your capital gains in taxable accounts. (not in non-taxable accounts) Mutual funds are required to pay out their net investment income to avoid taxes. Many declare dividends and capital gains in December each year to avoid those taxes.

What is a Capital Gain?

A capital gain is a profit made from the sale of any investment where the sale price exceeds the purchase price.

If you lost money on an investment and have sold it, then you have incurred a capital loss.

Should You Sell or Exchange Your Shares to Avoid a Capital Gains Distribution?

Some investors defer the sale of profitable investments until the lower long-term capital gains tax rate can be taken. Other investors do not want the capital gain. Every individual financial planning is different in how much taxes you pay, so I recommend you consult your tax or financial advisor for guidance.

investment-kathy-invest-1346104_960_720All of the information you need is on your trade confirmations that you receive and will be used when preparing your tax return. Most brokerage houses give a year end summary that you should keep for your records so you can give to your accountant or tax advisor to help with your year-end planning. This document is sent out by mail or E mailed to you (depending on what you signed up for on your application). in late February or sometimes early March.  The shares of a mutual fund held in taxable accounts, short-term capital gains distributions are taxed to individuals at ordinary income rates. The short-term holding period is one year or less. Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income tax rates, which can range from 10% to 39.6% for the year 2016 (check with you accountant on your rate).

Here Are Two Articles to Further Guide You:

Taxes on Income and Capital Gains for 2016 – Charles Schwab

  • https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Taxes-Whats-New

Mutual Funds and Taxes – Fidelity

  • https://www.fidelity.com/taxes/tax-topics/mutual-funds

Long term capital gains distributions are generally taxed at long term capital gain rates no matter how long shares have been held. The long-term holding period is more than one year. Long-term capital gains are taxed at long-term capital gains rates, which is usually less than ordinary tax rates. The long-term capital gains tax rate ranges from 0 – 20%, depending on your marginal tax bracket of the amount of money you make.


What Information You Need For calculating the Capital Gain?investing-reading-glasses-sitting-13721622

  • The security you purchased.
  • The date you purchased.
  • The price you paid.
  • Your brokerage fees and commissions.
  • The date of sale.
  • The sell price.
  • The sell commission.
  • How many dollars you invested?
  • The gross proceeds from the sale.

Simple Example of Long Term Capital Gain:

  • Description of Security   100 shares ABC Mutual Fund
  • Date Bought 1/3/2015
  • Buy Price $1000
  • Buy Commission $25
  • Date Sold 2/28/2016
  • Sell Price $1350
  • Sell Commission $25
  • Cost Basis = $1050 ($1000 + $25 + $25) (Buy Price + Buy and Sell Commission)
  • Capital Gain $ 300 = Sell Price – Cost Basis   $1350-$1050 = $300 Long Term Capital Gain.

In the above example, there would have been a short term gain instead of a long-term capital gain if the investment was sold less than one year after purchase. In this case the 100 shares of ABC Mutual Fund was held over one year.

Most distributions are paid in December. If you are thinking about buying mutual funds in December, it’s a good idea before you purchase, call the mutual fund company or look on the website to see when the expected cap gain pay date is, (they sometimes change) so you do not have to pay tax this year without capitalizing on the gain. Mutual funds can make capital gains distributions even if the fund has lost money for the year.

Take the time today to review when your mutual fund is paying their Year–End Capital Gain Distributions before making any new mutual fund purchase at the end of the year.  It’s up to you to keep track of the documents necessary to report to the government each year. Taking responsibility for your finances. Track your investments and be an informed investor. Your journey to wealth is within reach!

For more information about investing email me at Bonnie@bonnieGortler.com

I have a free gift for you. Download chapter 1 of my book Journey To Wealth Get it here:  http://www.bgjourneytowealth.com/

To your health, wealth and happiness,

Bonnie Gortler
The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

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Early in November the S&P 500 index was down 9 consecutive days, a distant memory now after the S&P 500 joined the Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 making all-time highs, all on the same day, 11/21/16.  On the flip side, bonds have been under selling pressure, the 10-yearTreasury note yields have been edging higher, closing at 2.33% on 11/17/16, the highest level since early January.   The rate rise is affecting 30 year mortgages, as they rose 0.5% in one week.   Also US Municipal Bond yields are rising fast, and investors are moving away from this asset class. Some municipal bond mutual funds have fallen 5% or more in recent weeks.  High-yielding stocks were also hit hard especially the consumer staple sector (XLP), after many years of strong gains. Investors are shifting out of bonds and into equities as long term rates are moving higher.

112316-qqq-newsletter

Stocks could move higher into year-end as the most favorable seasonal period is upon us.  Our trading models are in a neutral-positive condition, suggesting downside risk is limited.  Expect volume to be light as the holiday season moves on. There could be some potential intraday volatility as investors and institutions rebalance their portfolios, selling weak stocks to offset their gains for tax purposes.   Before you take time off for the holiday season, it’s a good time to review your portfolio holdings and make sure you are not overly exposed to hi yielding dividend paying stocks or bonds that are susceptible to higher interest rates.   Although they are oversold in the near term, they don’t appear to be where the money is flowing.

Here are some sectors that have risen sharply since the election that investors are buying, and are gaining in relative strength.

Some examples are:

  • Metals and Mining (XME) – 35.00 upside objective
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) – (see Systems and Forecasts, 10/26/16 issue), upside objective is 138.00.
  • S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) – upside objective 303.00 followed by 307.50
  • Transportation Average (IYT) 227.00 followed by 235.00
  • S&P Regional Banks (KRE), and Select Sector Financial (XLF)

The above sectors have all broken out through their respective weekly channels. Some other sectors have made new highs but have not broken out signaling a potential new leg up.  A perfect example is the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ). (See the chart below).

QQQ (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

 112316-qqq-weekly

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), Nasdaq 100, an exchange traded fund (ETF) representing the Nasdaq 100 Index, along with price and trend channels that are acting as support and resistance areas. QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 11/22/16, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 10.65%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.42%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.58%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 4.99%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.66% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.09% totaling 39.39%.

All the top holdings peaked in October as investors started to shift away from the larger stocks to small and midcaps.   Only MSFT is near its short term high. The other top stocks FB, GOOGL, GOOG, and AMZN have bounced off of their recent lows, however the intermediate and longer term charts have weakening momentum patterns that need to be monitored closely.  Time will tell if these stocks will attract investors and push the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) higher, or if further selling will occur.   On a side note, the S&P 500 Index now leads the Nasdaq Composite in relative strength, which is near-term negative. Caution is warranted.

The QQQ has traded within the channel (blue lines) since July 2013, except for a one day blip that occurred in August 2015, where the QQQ tested the lows falling below the channel line.  The QQQ is at 118.00, trading slightly under resistance at 120.00.  A break above 120.00 for two days on a closing basis would be considered positive.  The objective is 128.00, (top blue channel line).  A break below 112.00 would not be a good sign.  A break below the retracement line of the break out (pink line), would increase the likelihood of a more serious market decline.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  MACD is on a sell.  The pattern is not favorable at this time, showing weakening momentum as the intermediate uptrend line has been broken.  Caution is necessary, if you are overweight in the top holdings of QQQ, I am recommending lightening up.

Just to Sum Up:

Investors are in the holiday spirit as all the major averages are at their highs. Sector selection is very important. Money is shifting out of bonds and into equities as interest rates are rising. Investors are in the process of repositioning their assets earlier than normal.   Caution is warranted in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).   I recommend reducing your exposure if you are overweight, because the top holdings representing almost 40% are losing momentum on an intermediate and long term basis and no longer is leading in relative strength.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts November 23, 2016

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Discover the right wealth building attitude

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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Each of us needs a boost now and then, towards achieving our goals and dreams.  We all feel fear.  What would it be like to you when you feel the fear you decide to do it anyway.  It’s so much better than procrastinating and taking no action.  When you do what you fear you will have an amazing feeling after you take the action towards your fear.  If you are waffling with your decision, ask yourself what simple step can I take now to embrace my fear?

Be your best friend and listen to your heart.  Don”t let what others stop you from what you desire. Believe in your abilities, live your passion and be the confident you.

Watch the video below and be inspired to feel your fear and do it anyway.

To your health, wealth and happiness,

Bonnie

The Inspired Wealth & Well-Being Coach

 

Opera duo Charlotte & Jonathan – Britain’s Got Talent 2012 audition – UK version

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Thanksgiving, a joyous holiday to celebrate spending time with your family and friends, sharing your love, good memories and appreciating all that you are thankful for. An added treat for me  is a triple header of  football games. 

The spirit of the holiday can be celebrated each day.. The daily practice of being grateful will increase your happiness. Gratitude helps us to endure the challenging times in life and focus on appreciating what we do have. 

Decide to make it a habit to extend the Thanksgiving spirit by taking time each day to be grateful for your life, family and friends creating the lifestyle that you desire.

Wishing you and your  family a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!

~Bonnie

 

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Relaxing music can do wonders for you when you want to take a moment out of your day for some “me time”. It’s easy. Close your eyes, breath deeply several times and feel each muscle in your body relax.

Are you feeling a little stressed? You have choice as to how you are going to handle the stress. It might be a challenge at first, and it takes practice, but you can decide to push the pause button for some well deserved time in order for you to regenerate your mind, body, and soul.  Take a moment and enjoy the beauty of nature.

You will be happier you did.

To your health, wealth, and happiness

~Bonnie

The Inspired Wealth & Well-Being Coach

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Many stocks finished October down for the month.  The weakness extended early in November where the S&P 500 index was down 9 consecutive days with concerns about the outcome of the presidential election.  A two day bounce followed, alleviating the oversold condition that was created.  As the votes were gathered investors were nervous and the overnight futures were down sharply suggesting a lower opening on Wednesday.  During the night, Donald Trump was named president.  The panic was gone by the time the market opened.

Many market averages rallied strongly off their lows. There was a split market. Sectors such as Health and Finance moved higher, and other sectors were under pressure such as Utilities, Emerging Markets, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.   Many investors, institutions and hedge funds were surprised by the outcome and had to change their investments quickly, or decide they wanted to be invested now that the election was complete.  It’s still early to forecast what is ahead.  Our trading models are in a neutral positive condition entering the most favorable seasonal period of the year, suggesting downside risk is limited.

You can expect more wide intraday trading swings in the market until the dust settles. This could take some time.   A test of the lows over the next 3-6 weeks would be a safer buying opportunity if investors shift from buyers to seller.

What to Monitor Now for a Safer Entry

  • Monitor overseas markets to see if they move higher than 11/09/16 close.  Watch the following international ETF’s, Ishares China (FXI), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Mexico (EWW).
  • Look for intraday trading swings to be less than 1% in the S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM).
  • Long term interest rates stop rising.  Watch TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Yr. Treasury Bond (ETF).
  • High Yield Bond Mutual Funds turn up and take out their recent highs. Use (HYG) or (JNK) as a benchmark.
  • Momentum in intermediate and long term charts to turn more favorable, strengthening instead of weakening.
  • An improvement in market breadth daily and on a weekly basis.
  • Watch to see if the technology sector becomes a leader over the S&P 500. Watch the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Semiconductors HOLDR (SMH).  Also keep an eye on Apple, which has been under some selling pressure the past few weeks.
  • When the market declines notice the movement in VIX (an index that measures fear).  Look if VIX accelerates quickly or it moves up quietly.  When the market falls it would be a bullish sign if VIX moves lower.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly Price And Channel

110916-weekly-newsletter

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. The S&P 500 (SPY) broke below its trading channel breaking the uptrend (green line). The SPY looked like it would go lower however; there was no follow through to the downside and after the election reversed sharply higher.

What a difference a few days can make. An explosive rally developed after making a low during the night of the presidential election, the S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 216.50 on 11/9/16. The SPY is in the process of testing resistance between 217.00 and 220.00 from July 2016 highs (blue circle).  If the S&P 500 (SPY) can get through resistance, it could potentially go to the upper channel at 228.00.  If the market turns down, support is at 214.00 followed by 212.00 and 197.00.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum. It was a good sign MACD confirmed the high in July before generating a sell suggesting another attempt at the high would be made.  Momentum has stopped accelerating downwards, and has started to flatten, both good signs. Notice however that MACD is not in an oversold condition where major bottoms take place.  If the S&P 500 (SPY) does rise and break out to a new yearly high and touch the upper channel, there is a good chance MACD will not confirm and form a negative divergence.

Summing Up:

Investors’ perception changed quickly from bearish to bullish after the election upset by our new President Donald Trump.  The S&P 500 (SPY) rose sharply and is again challenging resistance at 217-220 area.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) is 228.00. Intermediate momentum indicators are not in position for a major bottom and not likely to confirm the recent strength, therefore upside potential could be limited once the dust settles. Stock selection is very important now, as the market is split. Investors are moving out of defensive sectors, market breadth is weak and new lows are increasing. More wide intraday swings are expected to continue. I recommend reviewing your holdings and not being overweight in one particular sector. Don’t rush into buying stocks; look for a safer entry in 3-6 weeks to add to your investments.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts November 10, 2016

bg jtw book cover

Discover the right wealth building attitude

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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