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Support levels on the major averages are intact, despite the decline in early March.  Technical indicators based on market breadth and volume is in the process of working off its overbought condition from the rise since the election.  In addition historical research shows after January and February are strong months; the year has the potential for additional gains. This doesn’t mean a short term decline will not occur, however the odds favor declines could be a buying opportunity.

The optimistic tone of the market has changed somewhat as the expectations of rising rates became a concern for investors.  The 10-year Treasury note yields have been rising steadily since the end of February spooking investors.  There has been an overall weakening in market breadth indicators that need to be monitored. Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate and further gains over the next several weeks.

The overall technical picture of the market remains positive. The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in February.   When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  The Technology sector is acting well. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is not far from its recent all-time high.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Strength of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 03/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.91%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.11%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.50%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.22%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.67% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.11% totaling 40.52%.

The QQQ broke out at 123.00 (red circle above) on January 6 and has been steadily rising. The QQQ has now slightly penetrated the channel objective at 130.00 (top blue channel line), now trading at 131.30. The intermediate trend is up as long as the QQQ remains above the up trendline line (pink). The next upside target is 139.00.   Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ.   Apple has moved sideways for 10 days giving up no ground.  If Apple continues making new highs, this could be positive for the technology sector over the next several months.   If the QQQ falls below 123.00, breaking the up-trend, my bullish outlook would be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  Its bullish MACD has confirmed the price high made in QQQ suggesting any weakness in the QQQ most likely would be temporary.

 

A Breakout in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is Possible?

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.   The S&P 500 (SPY) hit its weekly upside channel on March 1st at 240.32 and pulled back.  Market breath has weakened however the SPY has not given up much ground over the last two weeks, a bullish sign.  If the SPY can get through the old highs, higher projections above 260.00 will be given.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum.  Like the QQQ discussed above, MACD has confirmed the price high in the SPY and is in a clear uptrend.  This is the sign of a healthy market.   Look for the SPY to at least test the old highs.

Summing Up:

Market breadth has been weak as of late after being very strong for many months. There has been no real thrust on the advancing days to get excited about, however not much ground has been given up either.  Market breath indicators have worked off its overbought condition since the election.   Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate and potential further gains over the next several weeks. MACD over the intermediate term for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have confirmed the strength of the overall market.   Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

I would love to hear from you.  Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this!

Click here for a free report: Top 10 Investing Tips To More Wealth

*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts March 15, 2017

Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book
Journey To Wealth


Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Life is filled with twists and turns. Taking small actions toward what you want to achieve can create a new perspective on how you go about achieving your hopes, dreams, and aspirations. Have you or someone you’ve known ever challenged you to create goals beyond what you had imagined you could do? I know I have, and it’s made all the difference in my life! Goal setting is not rocket science but why go about it the same way over and over again? One of the best approaches I’m learning to help you succeed is to focus on improving your weaknesses so they become your strengths. You can do this by putting a plan in place that will keep things fresh and will help you feel renewed. Start by deciding that during this process of growth you are going to have fun, choose to be happy and do what your heart wants you to do. Life is short and can pass us by pretty fast so you want to take care of yourself and not spend too much time sweating the small stuff.

If you find yourself needing to pull yourself out of a funk, you can do so by changing your mindset and by shifting the language you use. It all starts with you accepting things for what they are.  Seeing life with all its ups and downs allows you to make better decisions about your plan of action. This small exercise will unlock your inner peace and is a great way to center your thoughts so you can begin finding the answers that will turn your weaknesses into new strengths, and also allow you to enjoy each day. 

When I started on my well-being journey I never imagined what an impact a change in perspective could be. The power to believe, added with simple consistent action steps has lead me to discover new strengths which had been hidden from my view.  The writing was never my strong point, math was. I didn’t even have to write a business letter in my corporate job, and my boss would put together the proposals to prospective clients so I didn’t get much practice. I do remember as a child that I did love writing letters to my teachers, friends, and family thanking them for their love and support.

As I grew life changed, I found other interests, that didn’t include writing.  A breakthrough appeared when one of my coaches gave me the assignment to write a poem. I wrote back to her expressing my apprehension with a big “Are You Kidding Me?” She wrote back and said, no she was not kidding and that I could do it. Yikes! I remember the fear and worry that filled my spirit. It was crazy that my coach had more belief I could write a poem than I did in myself. Instead of saying “I can’t” (one of my favorite answers before I started coaching), I dug deep and found the courage to move beyond my comfort zone and I started to write.  

Little did I know how much fun the process would be. It has opened up a new set of possibilities both personally and professionally. I learned when you find the courage to do something and continue to do it you gain a sense of confidence that spills over into all areas of your life. When I grow hesitant about trying something beyond my comfort zone, I do my best to remember back how fear used to fill me and how the flood of overwhelm would be so strong it would leave me paralyzed. Then I remind myself how I overcame all of that by finding the courage within myself to push through. This is something that has helped me time and time again. We all need a bit of encouragement and to help you make the shift take a moment and read my poem The Power of Inner Peace is Within Reach. My hope is you will realize all you can accomplish by changing your old way of thinking so you will explore new opportunities.

Putting myself out there in such a way was quite a challenge, especially since I knew that writing was not a strength I possessed. It was five years ago when I wrote that poem and had the courage to share on my blog. It taught me a valuable lesson in trusting myself and in the process of cultivating my untapped abilities. It goes to show you the power of how one thing can lead into another so that you can grow into who you are meant to be. Which, by the way, later on, another seed was planted by my mentor, when she said to me “you have a book in you.”  What? Writing a poem was such stretch that I laughed at the idea of writing a book. It was only with the support of my coach and working on having a positive mindset that I was able to discover that there really was a book in me when I published “Journey to Wealth”.  It took time and plenty of revisions but I’m proud to say it’s published and available on Amazon. Who knew? I didn’t, that’s for sure! Don’t doubt yourself. Your thoughts and perspective make a huge difference in what you do, Unlock the strength inside of you and take the steps needed so you can move forward today with a healthy outlook. 

How to Turn Your Weaknesses into Strengths

  1. Realize the impact of attitude on life. Raise your awareness to what your weakness might be and accept them, instead of going to the place of frustration.
  2. Ask someone you can trust for help that has done what you want to do.
  3. Start with doing one simple step. Practice to gain confidence and get better and better each day.
  4. Don’t take criticism or feedback personally. Not everyone is going to like what you do. Ask yourself what you can learn from the feedback that has been given to you.
  5. Change your thought process to think solutions. Focus on how to fix the problem, not on the obstacle. Don’t stay in a place of anger and keep focusing on what is negative, focus on what is positive
  6. Believe in Yourself. You are ready for unexpected challenges that arise. Think back to those challenges you already have handled in your life.
  7. Learn from your past mistakes, don’t beat yourself up, press on.

Start today by doing something you have never done before. The time has come for you to break through your challenges and gain a new perspective that will empower your new way of thinking. Do this by creating a plan and make it simple enough for you to follow. Revise as needed so you will stick with it. When you put in the effort to master a new skill, you will become excited again. The energy and revitalization you feel inside as you chart a new course in your life will become the foundation that will enable you to do even more. An opportunity exists at every turn. Take advantage of it. Create change in your life with small actions steps that move you closer to increased wealth and well-being. Living inside your comfort zone is not a good option if you want to find the fulfilled happiness you deserve. When you start to turn your weaknesses into strengths there are brighter days ahead so you can experience all richness life has to offer. 

If you like this article then you would love my new E book.

Get your free access HERE

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Bonnie 

The Inspired Wealth & Well Coach 

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How would you like to discover how to create more wealth and well-being on your terms, so you can live the lifestyle filled with the freedom you want?

Improved wealth and well-being happen when you decide to change your thoughts, make a commitment to yourself and take small, daily, action steps.

Would you love to:

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  • Achieve more wealth, happiness, and inner peace?
  • Fix what is not working and discover new, effective habits that give you the results you want?

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Register for my new, free eBook Grow Your Wealth and Well-Being and you will learn how to:

  • Strengthen your money mindset now so that you take charge of your wealth and well-being and achieve your goals. Because when you break free from your fears you will do what it takes for you to get the results you want.
  • Stop struggling with stress and anxiety so that you are more self-confident and happy.
  • Create change in your life to achieve financial well-being so that you don’t feel overwhelmed.

This powerful eBook helps you change your old ways of thinking, break through your challenges, feel energized, and create balance. You’ll apply simple, practical strategies so you can thrive. Build success on your terms and experience more inner peace.

Get your free eBook here.

Thank you.

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Bonnie Gortler

Wealth & Well-Being Coach

 

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It’s here…the list-building event that you and many others have been waiting for!


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The giveaway site opens to members on June 8th at 10 AM EDT, so don’t delay signing up as a valued contributor!


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To Your Success!

Bonnie

The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

 

P.S. This event is free to join, but with 500 + Gift submissions expected I recommend you give serious thought to upgrading your account for 4x the list-building visibility and the opportunity to add multiple gifts – all the exciting details are right here:

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February had a strong month of gains following January’s advance.  The Dow Industrials rose 12 straight days.  Healthcare (XLV), Utilities, and Financials were the leading sectors for the month along with solid gains by the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.  Our trading models remain neutral-positive and the tape remains bullish.  Up trends are intact.  Some indices have met their intermediate channel objectives including Regional Banks, (KRE) Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM); however there is a good chance more gains are ahead. The bulls remain in control.

What Do You Want To Watch Now?

The top portion of the chart shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion. After the election the Russell 2000 (IWM) skyrocketed.  The IWM made a high of 138.85 on 12/08/16 overshooting slightly its channel objective at 138.00 (green rectangle).  After making a high, the IWM moved sideways for about 8 weeks, not giving up much ground.

As of March 1st, a potential breakout may have begun.  The upside objective is 157.00 while support is at 133.00.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is overbought, confirming the new high made in IWM.  If the rally stalls MACD can give a sell quickly.  Its bullish, the uptrend from January 2016 is in effect, and MACD has confirmed the IWM high.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Weekly Price (Top), and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

The top part of the chart is the weekly (IWM) Russell 2000 Index / (SPY) S&P 500 Index Ratio (IWM/SPY).  A rising line means the IWM is stronger, and if falling, the SPY is stronger. The IWM/SPY ratio peaked on 12/05/16. The IWM has clearly been losing strength, however the uptrend from January 2016 (black line) is intact.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, already on a sell warning of a potential change of leadership.  Not only is momentum weakening, but at the same time the IWM/SPY relative strength ratio has broken it’s up trend. Also, the average daily trading range for the past 25 days has been more than double the SPY.  Even though the IWM has the potential to be breaking out, if you are heavily weighted in small caps, it may be a good time to reduce your exposure and lower your risk, shifting part of your assets to the SPY.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and Weekly 12-26-9 MACD (Bottom)

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 03/01/17 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.58%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.45%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.66% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.64%.  Investing in the S&P 500 gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The top part of the chart shows the S&P 500 (SPY) weekly trading channel.  The S&P 500 (SPY) has been in an uptrend since December 2016 and steadily rising since the election.  While the Russell 2000 (IWM) is at its top of its trading channel, the SPY still has some room to go before hitting its upper channel at 245.50.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, confirming the highs in the SPY. This is bullish.

Just To Sum Up:

The tape remains strong. Major averages continue to make new highs and pullbacks have been minor.  The Russell 2000 (IWM) has met its intermediate objective.  The SPY has taken over leadership in terms of relative strength. Even though the IWM has the potential for a break out, if you are heavily weighted in small caps, it may be a good time to reduce your exposure, lowering your risk by shifting part of your assets to the SPY.  Our models remain overall neutral-positive so stocks could rise for several more weeks. As long as the Russell 2000 (IWM) stays above its support at 133.00 and the SPY stays above its hourly support of 234.00, you can expect higher highs. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 Investing Tips To More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts March 2, 2017

Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book
Journey To Wealth

 


Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum
optimism is the best time to sell.
” ~John Templeton

New record closing highs seem to be a normal occurrence during 2017 as the Trump rally continues.  Equity markets have been going up on expectations of increased infrastructure spending, decreased regulation, and lower corporate taxes.  The advance has been broad, although some sectors have clearly been stronger than others.

Some major averages are near the top of their channels as some stocks have had hefty gains.  There are many favorable looking charting patterns, while others are in the process of the beginning stages of a parabolic advance.  This is a chart pattern in which prices rise (or fall) with an increasingly steep slope.   When the advance stops, a large decline follows that you want to avoid.

Our trading models remain neutral positive and the tape remains bullish.  The best kind of advance is the one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher, as investors wait for the decline which doesn’t happen.  This appears to be what is happening now.   The trend is your friend.  For now, enjoy the ride.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.

As of 02/13/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.83%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.25%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.53%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.15%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.65% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.09%, totaling 40.50%.   All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election.   Apple (AAPL), its largest holding has had significant gains already this year, and has higher upside projections that will help the QQQ, and has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

Revisiting the article in the Systems and Forecasts newsletter on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout.  This indeed did happen.  The QQQ is getting close to its 130.00 objective, closing at 129.40 on 02/15/17.

It looks like the QQQ could start another leg up, going through 130.00 to potentially reach 139.00 (orange line), the next target.  As long as the QQQ is above the up trendline line, the trend is up.    The trend line is important; it coincides with the break out at 123.00 that is now acting as support.  For another leg up to start, the QQQ needs to close above 130.00 for 2days and declines should be contained between 1-3%.  If the QQQ falls below the up trendline my bullish outlook will be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum.   MACD is overbought, however still rising, and gaining momentum which is positive.   MACD has confirmed the price high suggesting even if the QQQQ would decline another rally attempt would occur.

QQQ Performance Will Be Helped By Apple: Long Term Trend Is Up

AAPL Monthly Price and Up Trend Line (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

** Apple’s stock underwent a 7-for-1 split, giving 6 additional shares to each shareholder on 06/09/2014.  The stock closed at 645 becoming 92.00/per share.

The top chart is a price chart that shows the high-low-close each month of Apple since 2005.  The Black line is the prevailing key uptrend line.  As long as Apple’s price is above the uptrend line, the trend is up and further profit potential on the long side is likely.   Apple was under selling pressure since its high in April 2015, when it was out of favor by investors.  In September 2016, Apple broke its down trend (orange line), and investors stepped in to buy.   After its quarterly earnings were announced on 01/31/17, Apple gained 11.7% (121.35-135.60 as of 02/15/17 intraday) and then soared ahead breaking its all-time intraday high of $134.54 set in April 2015 on February 14, 2016.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is on a buy, and has a very favorable pattern turning up from an oversold condition below 0, where good buying opportunities develop.  This certainly has been the case for Apple.

In 2009 MACD was oversold, below 0, and generated a buy.  MACD rose into 2011 while MACD went sideways into 2012 as Apple stock continued to rise from 11.76 to 100.72, +756% gain.   MACD turned down crossing its signal line in 2012, generating a sell in 2013.  Apple fell from 100.72 to 52.55, a 47.8% loss.  MACD then started to flatten out forming a rising double bottom formation (one of the most bullish formations to look for on charts and make money).  Apple rose from 52.55 to 134.54, +156.0% gain. MACD peaked in 2015, turning down, losing momentum and Apple fell from 134.54 to 89.47, a -33.5% loss.

Apple’s latest rise off of the bottom is from 89.47 to 135.50, a gain of 51.5%. The good news is the MACD pattern remains very bullish even with its rise to new highs.  Next objective is 155.00 and support is 127.00.  There has been a definite shift in investor sentiment since the election and belief the company will benefit from potential changes down the road by President Trump. Time will tell.

Summing Up:

Major averages have made new all-time highs, a common theme of 2017.  The advance that is taking place is the best kind of advance, one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher as investors wait for the decline.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did break out in January, and could well be on its way to another 7% gain.  The trend is up.  Apple, its largest component has a very favorable MACD pattern suggesting there is more room to the upside on top of its recent gains.   The trend is your friend. Enjoy the ride.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts February  16, 2017

Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book
Journey To Wealth

 


Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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When you experience big changes in your life, it’s tempting to want things to go back to “normal”.  Your big change could involve your personal life, your health, your career, and/or your business. But what if your normal is a “new normal”. Your new normal could be even better than your old normal and include changes that prevent you from ever going back to your old normal. Some things that we experience in life change us so profoundly that there is no going back. And that’s a good thing. After I got so sick in the summer of 2015 and came so close to death, people asked my son, Nick, “How is your mom doing?” His answer was, “She is better than normal.” I changed profoundly from going over to the other side and coming back into my body. If I had set my eyes on returning to my old “normal” after this major life event, it wouldn’t work.

So how can you create normalcy after dramatic changes in your life? I have 7 steps to help you find your new sense of normal and stability.

  1. Discover how to feel much better.
    How you feel is related to the way you think about life. If you decide that you want to feel better, you set yourself on a path to feel better.
  1. Begin writing in a daily journal.
    Journal Prompt: What would it take right now to make me feel better? Then, ask, “How can I get there?”
  1. Open the doorway to experience complete healing.
    Allow the idea to form that you can heal completely from your experience. You don’t have to see yourself as “damaged goods”. I know that when I lost my brother at a young age, I thought that I would be damaged forever. When I first began to allow the possibility that I could be happy and feel joy, I experienced a turning point and headed back to a feeling of wholeness. When my heart failed last summer, I was frustrated thinking that I had a “bad heart”. I knew on a soul level, my heart was good and pure… and it felt terrible to think otherwise. When I started appreciating my heart for supporting me to this point in life, my attitude change. I was thanking my heart every day for its hard work. Eventually, my heart responded to this appreciation and I experienced a spontaneous healing.
  1. Greatly improve the quality of your life right now.
    Work on your bucket list now Why wait? If you want to improve your golf game, do it now. If you want to see more concerts, do it now. If you want to spend more time with people you love, do it now.
  1. Create peace of mind.
    Let go of needing to fight against something. Create acceptance and that is the beginning of positive change. When you accept what is going on and get calm, you have a positive starting point for change. Peace of mind enables clear thought and options that you may not see when you are in a frenzy or fury over something you perceive as unfair. Rather than think about what you are against, think about what you are for.
  1. Create focused thinking.
    It’s difficult to have focused thinking when you have a lot going on. Thoughts get scattered and cloudy. Focus your mind with deep breathing exercises and journal exercises. Reduce noise, so you can clearly see options and weigh decisions. Journal Prompts: What are my goals? What help do I need? What do I need to learn?  What action steps do I want to take?
  1. Take charge of a full-on blitz for your mind, body, and spirit.
    When you care for your mind, body, and spirit; you create a holistic approach for creating your “new normal”.  Cultivate thoughts that work for you. Take care of your body combining the best of modern medicine and alternative approaches that make sense for you and move your body in a way that is fun and inspiring. Meditate and pray on a daily basis to stay connected to your spirituality.

When you practice these 7 steps, you will find your “new normal”.  You may be surprised to see that you are better than ever, living a purposeful and fulfilling life no matter what is going on around you.

Business and Life Strategist, known for inspiring massive action and being a catalyst for personal and business growth, joy, and profits in a way that is fun, relaxing, and fulfilling, Sheri Kaye Hoff inspires people to the do work they love and make money. She is a near death survivor and thriver. Learn more about Sheri

 

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The Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NYSE Composite Index all had a favorable start in 2017, breaking out to new record closing highs after 6 weeks spent consolidating within a tight trading range. The Dow made it through the psychological 20,000 milestone and the Transportation average confirmed the Dow Jones Industrials’ new high. International indices, which have struggled, came to life and have improving technical patterns.

However, in the past week the averages couldn’t hold onto all of their gains even though support levels remain intact. Our trading models remain neutral positive. Some signs of concern showed up the last few days in January. Investors’ selling was spurred by investors’ uncertainty about world events, interest rates rising, and potential disappointment in earnings by major companies including Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). Apple’s earnings were well received by investors. Apple’s stock rose sharply, now less than 5% from its all-time high with a very favorable long term monthly chart. Facebook rose on their earnings announcement lifting its stock to new highs, followed by some profit taking.

The concern is some profit taking after the S&P 500 stalled just below its key level at 2300. In addition small caps (Russell 2000 Index) and the financial sector (XLF and KRE) which had led the market higher since the election have now started to weaken.

What ETF to Track to Signal Further Gains or Trouble Ahead?

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and RSI 14 (Bottom)

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Regional Banking Index (KRE), an exchange traded fund (ETF) that began in 2006. KRE tracks an equally weighted index of common stocks of leading regional banks or thrifts (savings and loan associations). As of 01/31/17 the top holdings of KRE are: M&T Bank Corporation (3.64%), PNC Financial Services Group I, (PNC) (3.64), Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) 3.60, Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 3.59 %, SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI) 3.58%, BB&T Corporation (BBT) 3.57%, and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) 3.57% totaling 25.19%.

Notice the clear trading channel in the top chart (the three green lines). KRE is not for the faint of heart. It’s a volatile index that I monitor intraday for the trend of the market and potential trend changes. Another financial sector ETF to follow is the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), which is quieter than KRE. After the election, investors very quickly moved assets into the financial sector fueling the rally that rocketed KRE from 43.59 to 49.87 in one week, a 14.41% gain. Four weeks later KRE rose further to 56.29 a 12.87% gain, breaking through its trading channel surpassing the high made in November 2015.

However, KRE has stalled, consolidating for 9 weeks. It looks like KRE is at a critical juncture now.

A break above 57.00 would suggest KRE will challenge the upper channel at 59 over the next few weeks. If KRE can get through the upper channel a higher objective would be given and this would also have bullish implication for the overall market.

However, a break below its consolidation, 53.40 (red rectangle) would imply a potential test of 49.00

A break below 49.00 would suggest a serious decline is imminent.

The bottom half of the chart shows the Relative Strength Index, a measure of momentum developed by Welles Wilder. RSI is based on the ratio of upward price changes to downward price changes. RSI reached 82.43 its highest weekly reading since the ETF began in 2006. RSI readings of 70 or higher show strength and are most times considered bullish. Generally as long as RSI stays above 40, the trend is up.

When you have a powerful thrust as KRE did on its most recent breakout, this is normally not a sign of a top. Most times you would get a relatively contained pullback or sideways consolidation before another rally attempt would occur. It’s also a bullish sign the uptrend in RSI from 1/16/16 remains intact. RSI has lost some momentum, however its normal that momentum temporarily weakens after a huge rally before the next leg higher. As long as the uptrend is in effect the odds favor the bulls. If the downtrend is broken (black line) a warning sign would be given.

Summing Up:
The stock market is off to a good start in 2017 as many major averages have made new all-time highs. Our models remain neutral-positive. However, uncertainty about world events, interest rates rising, and company earnings remain in investor’s minds. The momentum of the rally since the election has slowed and the market is consolidating it gains. I recommend keeping an eye on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) for a sign of further strength or weakness that would give the clue of a potential change. For now the bulls remain in control.

If you have questions or comments on this article, please feel free to contact me at bgortler@signalert.com; phone: 1-516-829-6444. I would love to hear from you.

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Aruba 2014 Cover pic maybe

Investing in YOU is something to do all year long, not just for a holiday, or a week or just once in a while. Yes this might be challenging sometimes, but in the long run taking care of your health and well-being helps everything and everyone around you. I hope you enjoyed the holiday season being with family and friends. A new year approaches and a new beginning. Keep taking small strategic steps toward your goals and desires. Each success brings you closer to a life of tranquility instead of a life filled with stress and worry. You will become happier, healthier and more content if you work toward your dreams in a slow steady pace. Doing more doesn’t always make things better, and you will be surprised how relaxing life can be once you begin to focus on what you are passionate. You will feel a true sense of renewal and begin to finally live the inspired lifestyle you desire.

Tranquility is defined by Dictionary.com as a “quality or state of being calmness, peacefulness, quiet, and serenity.” This is exactly what I wish for all of you!

Whether it’s during the holiday season, the start of a New Year or just another normal day making well-being a priority is essential. Did you ever notice how some days are super busy and other days are quiet and peaceful?  Sometimes you may even feel a little anxious and uncertain. Wouldn’t it be great if you could jump start your day on your terms and be full of energy and unstoppable happiness? You can have this once you decide to create a real change in your life with some simple action steps that will bring you to the next level and beyond. To follow are some systematic steps toward a lifestyle of peace and tranquility as you move ever closer to successfully doing what you want to do.

Easy Steps To Improve Your Well-Being With More Well-being-this-way1Tranquility and Less Stress

  • Start your day an hour earlier and finally create some private time for you. Once you do so you will be pleasantly surprised just how much you  get done during this peaceful time of the day. Mix it up a bit and add some of your favorite music while enjoying the beauty around you. What a great way to start your day!
  • Choose something that you like to do and that you are passionate about. This could be writing, prayer, meditation, or even exercise. It doesn’t matter the activity as long as it’s whatever you like to do and will shift your thoughts into a more positive frame of mind. (I love my time for writing, exercise, and researching information about fantasy sports with music in the background)
  • Do less. I’m sure you have heard of the K.I.S.S. principle- Keep it simple stupid. Do you use this principle? If not, why? Stop now and make the decision to remove one item that you do often and are not getting the results you desire, and simplify it. By using this principle you will get more done, be happier and less stressed.
  • Set goals for 3 months, 6 months and a year. Enjoy the journey. Pick one to start working on in the short term that will move you towards your longer-term goal. Choose one thing at a time, focus on it, and make it happen.
  • Create a morning and evening routine to start and end your day on a positive note.
  • Empty your E mail inbox and clear your desk regularly. This will help you if you are feeling overwhelmed.
  • Respond to others without reacting. Raise your awareness to your surroundings. If someone says or does something to you that you don’t like, say and do nothing. Count to 10 before you respond. If you don’t have something nice to say, don’t!
  • Be kind and compassionate. Be thoughtful of how others feel. Think about what the other person might be going through. Don’t judge them. Remember there are two sides to every story.
  • Be patient, kind, not hard on yourself.  If you had a little too much to eat during your day, or at a party, don’t beat yourself up. This will get you nowhere fast. Give your body some love, create time into your schedule and go for a walk. Clear your mind from the stress and think positive thoughts.
  • Move your body. Exercise. See if you can make this a daily habit. Get into the habit. Start simply with 5 minutes each day. Expand the time with what works for you. Exercise not only helps you lose weight but it could make you feel so much better like it has done for me.
  • Find your passion. Do what you love to do regularly. Let your creativity shine through. You will be happier, more tranquil and less stressed.
  • Be held accountable. Find a coach or partner who will support you to on your journey in life.
  • Review and write down your financial plan to simplify your finances as you focus on growing your wealth.

You really do have the power to jump start your day and be full of energy and unstoppable happiness! All it takes to get started is choosing one action step and following through with focused attention. You will create real change once you start. Remember to believe in yourself because you can do anything that you set your mind to. Let today be the day that you make the decision that will lead you toward less stress and more tranquility as your dreams become reality.

If you like this article then you would love my new E book “Grow Your Wealth and Well-Being.Get your free access HERE

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Bonnie 

The Inspired Wealth & Well Coach 

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

~Bonnie

Visit HERE to schedule your
Inspired Wealth and Well-Being
Free 30 minute Discovery Session

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The first week of 2017 was strong after many major averages made new highs in December.  Since that time major averages have paused, digesting their gains.  The Dow Industrials has come close a few times to the key psychological 20,000 level, however so far unable to push through.   The Russell 2000 (IWM) peaked just above its upside objective at 138.00 and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) also made its upside objective at 307.50, however then pulled back.  When the Dow closes above 20,000 there is a good chance other indices will also move higher, surpassing their old highs.

Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate.  The overall technical picture of the market remains positive.  The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in December.  When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  It was also a good sign that there were 490 daily new highs on the NYSE on December 8, the most since May 2013.  These types of readings are more bullish than bearish and suggest higher prices going forward.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is now leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Direction of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its trend channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 01/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 10.87%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.53%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.47%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 4.98%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.75% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.19% totaling 39.79%.

All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election. The QQQ rose 7 straight sessions, closing at a new all-time high.  With its recent strength, it looks like the QQQ could break out from here, (red circle above).

The upside channel objective is 130.00 (top blue channel line).

For now, the trend is our friend, however later this year could be more challenging as the market is in the late stages of a bull market.  As long as the QQQ is above the retracement line from the break out of 112.00 in July 2016 (pink line), now acting as support, periodic declines most likely will be buying opportunities. A break below 112.00 would be considered bearish and suggest a more serious market decline.

Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ which has a favorable monthly MACD pattern turning up from an oversold condition, after breaking its downtrend in September 2016 (chart not shown).  This has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  MACD has broken its down trendline which is favorable; however MACD is not in its most ideal buying position as the turn up didn’t occur from an oversold condition below 0.  This pattern needs to be monitored to see if MACD continues to rise further making a new high picking up momentum, as did the weekly MACD on the Russell 2000 (IWM) from October 2016 – December 2016.

Summing Up:

The overall trend of the market remains optimistic even though the Dow Industrials has been unable to get through the key psychological 20,000 level.  Maybe earning season that begins 01/13/17 will be the fuel that is needed to get through the level.  Upside channel objectives have already been met on the Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) and the SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY).  So far the pullback has not jeopardized the bullish outlook.  In the meantime the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up seven days in a row, reaching a new all-time high and has slightly penetrated its channel suggesting a possible breakout will occur.  Look for strength in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to lead the overall market higher. As long as the QQQ remains above the retracement line from the break out in July 2016 (pink line) above 112.00, intermittent declines most likely will be buying opportunities.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts January 13, 2017


Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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