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The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq completed its best year since 2013.  Many global markets broke out from long-term down-trends igniting interest among investors, achieving gains of over 20%. In addition, 2017 was one of the least volatile years I have witnessed in my over 35-year career.   Technical indicators have confirmed the highs made in the major averages, and uptrends remain in effect.

The question remains can the rally continue in 2018?

The probabilities are high that further gains are likely.  Our models indicate a positive market climate for the start of 2018.  The bulls remain in control for now.  However, optimism is at extreme levels, (a contrary indicator), investor’s cash is at levels that are the lowest since 2000, and interest rates are rising.

The Moment of Truth for the S&P 500 (SPY): Intermediate upside objectives are close to being met.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly Price And Channel

The S&P 500 (SPY) is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. When you invest in the S&P 500 (SPY), you are getting a broad representation of large-cap U.S stocks with moderate risk.

The top portion of the chart is the weekly (intermediate) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF and its price channel (purple lines).  The upside channel objective is 276.00 (orange line).  The S&P 500 (SPY) has been in a weekly uptrend since February 2016 (black line), with only a minor penetration.

Until the upside trendline on the S&P 500 (SPY) is broken, where the SPY breaks below 256.00 on a weekly close, no serious threat of a major decline is likely.

The SPY declines in 2017 were less than 3%, much lower than normal. In 2018 look for declines to be larger as volatility picks up and investors decide to lock in some of their profits.

Notice how the SPY is very close to its upside objective. If penetrated it would be bullish and suggest the rally can go significantly higher.   A turn down in the near term without reaching the channel objective at 276.00 would suggest the SPY is ready to pause and potentially pullback to support at 244.00.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum.   MACD is rising and has confirmed the recent price high made by the S&P 500 (SPY), (orange circle), suggesting the final top has not been reached.   MACD is showing strength instead of weakening momentum.

Summing Up:

Stocks continue their advance to start 2018 after completing its best year since 2013.     There is no serious threat of a major decline unless the S&P 500 (SPY) intermediate uptrend is violated.  Watch for a shift in trend if the SPY breaks below 256.00 on a weekly close.  For now, continue to celebrate and enjoy the ride as the bulls remain in control and the bears remain in hibernation.

I would love to hear from you.  Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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The Systems & Forecasts Newsletter


*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts January 05, 2018


Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Day 7: More Abundance and Wealth for Your Financial Future

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Achieve The Goals You Desire – Believe In You 003- Bonnie-Aruba-sand-waterDo you find yourself making excuses and procrastinating about starting an investment plan for your financial future? Are you struggling to grow your wealth and sometimes intimidated or overwhelmed by what has to be done? Making good financial decisions is a skill that anyone can learn by deciding to commit to create change. There is no better time than now to develop a plan where you are in charge and can take responsibility for your financial future. You don’t have to make a dramatic change all at once so it’s hard or even a painful process. You can make small changes, one at a time and before you know it, you will be saving and investing in a natural manner that becomes easier and more rewarding each day.

Your financial goals change at different stages of life. You want to decide if you are investing for the short or long term.  There are periods in life when taking risks is warranted but other phases in life when it is best to be extremely careful with your finances. Everyone’s risk tolerance threshold varies depending on the different situations in life. Some of you are just beginning to build your wealth and still have your entire life ahead of you. Because you are just starting out you have more time ahead to replace capital if lost. A new investor starting out in life has different objectives than one who is now retired after working his or her whole life or living off of money they have saved; and therefore have a lower tolerance for risk because of the lack of time to recover should there be a loss.

Risk is the potential loss you can have on an investment. No matter what circumstance you are in, your risk tolerance needs to be established along with the appropriate investment strategy for your lifestyle, age that fit into the dreams you have for your future. Develop an investment plan that includes a mix of equities and bonds that you want in order to manage risk. Some investments are more uncertain than others. A simple and quick way to decide your portfolio mix of how much equity and bonds is by your age. The older you are the more bonds and less equity you want in your portfolio.   For example, if you are 30 years old then 30% bonds; and 70% equity would be your mix. If you are age 50, then a good investment mix would be 50% bonds and 50 % equity. (Note: future results cannot be guaranteed).

Investments that are too aggressive and keep you up at night are simply too stressful, and don’t align with your commitment to achieving wealth and well-being. Capital preservation is the key to your investments and growing your wealth. If you are losing sleep then these are not the correct investments for you. Consider altering your portfolio by making a small change at a time.  No need to change everything all at once. Decrease in phases to give yourself more peace of mind and less stress, so you can be more comfortable with your investment situation. In the long run, having investments that are quieter, (low volatility) as part of your portfolio will be the most consistent way for you to make the most money.

More Abundance and Wealth for Your Financial Future

  • Write down your short and long term goals and keep them by your side and look at them often.
  • Know where your money is going and what are you spending each month. Be mindful of not spending more than you earn.
  • Write down or create a worksheet on the computer what your monthly expenses are. Notice money spent on items that had no significance or that were not high priorities.
  • Have clear defined objectives. Create a written plan that has a mix of long term, (5 years or more) intermediate term (1 to 5 years) and short term (up to one year) personal financial goals. Financial planning early in life can begin leading you on the road to prosperity.
  • Start saving a few dollars at a time to begin accumulating wealth. Start small, a twenty dollar bill saved today will continue to grow for your future. You will be amazed how dollars turn into hundreds, then into thousands. It’s never too late to begin saving and investing.
  • Remember when investing that all trades will not make money. You will not be perfect. Learn how to let go of past mistakes. Learn to not let emotions rule your decisions. Stay focused, manage your thoughts and create good trading investment habits that will keep you on the right track.
  • Give yourself the gift of peace of mind by doing a little research before you invest. Be realistic with your expectations.
  • Track your investments that you invest in the stock market is a key to mastering your finances. Watch your portfolio daily, check on the price movement of your individual stocks or mutual funds.
  • Time is your friend when you are investing. Money will grow if you leave it to accumulate and don’t spend it.
  • Manage your risk! Protect your assets. Prevent large losses on your investments. Remember the best loss is the smallest loss. It is more important not to lose than it is to win.  Slow and steady consistent growth is much better than a roller coaster ride up and down with your investments.

With you making a commitment to a few simple changes carried out a little each day with consistency, you will, over time achieve your dreams and enjoy a bright financial future. A proper plan will not only save you money, but will also be enable you the flexibility to use your money on what gives you pleasure rather than only using it for meeting the basic needs that fill your life. Making even a small change is something that you can do without too much effort; when you do you will find the benefits are worth every step taken. Even the smallest action steps add up and are enough to make a true difference in your life. You have the power to turn things around. Learn to become accountable to you and take charge of your financial future so you can reap the benefits for years to come.

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To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Wealth and Well-Being Coach


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