Bonnie’s Market Update 10/31/25

October was another positive month. Last week, only four of the eleven S&P SPDR sectors were higher. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary were the strongest sectors, while Materials (XLB) and Real Estate (XLRE) were the weakest. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose +0.71%.

S&P SPDR Sector ETFs Performance Summary 10/24/25 – 10/31/25

103125 weekly SPDR Sectors

Source: Stockcharts.com

Figure 2: Bonnie’s ETFs Watch List Performance Summary 10/24/25 – 10/31/25

103125 Bonnie’s ETF Watch List

Source: Stockcharts.com

Semiconductors and Biotechnology (risk on) led the market higher, outperforming the S&P 500 last week. Gold and Small Cap Value were under selling pressure.

Figure 3: 2025 Monthly Return

January – October 2025 SPY QQQ IWM

SPY QQQ IWM Monthly Returns

Source: Statmuse

QQQ, SPY, and IWM were up for the 6th consecutive month. QQQ led in October.

Figure 4: January-October Major Averages YTD Performance 2025

Source: Schwab

Figure 5: S&P SPDR Sector ETFs YTD Performance 12/31/24 – 10/31/25

YTD SPDR Sectors through 103125

Source: Stockcharts.com

Technology, Utilities, Consumer Services, and Industrials are leading in 2025.

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Charts to Watch:

Breadth Warnings

Figure 6: S&P 500 Price and NYSE, SPX, Mid and Small Cap AD Lines

103125 S&P 500 Price and NYSE, SPX, Mid and Small Cap AD Lines

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 reached a new high (top chart), confirmed by the S&P 500 advance-decline line (third chart). However, notice the divergences in breadth. No confirmation (red arrows) in the New York Index (NYSE) Common Stock only, S&P Mid Cap, and S&P Small Cap Advance Decline Line. It’s negative that the AD lines have lower highs. If there is no confirmation, the rally will continue to narrow, making it harder to make money, and a more significant pullback could occur.

In Sum:

Divergences persist in key Advance-Decline Lines and warrant close monitoring.

Figure 7: Fear & Greed Index

Source. CNN.com

Investor sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index (a contrarian indicator), closed at 35, indicating fear last week despite trading near all-time highs. If it reaches Extreme Greed, it would imply too much optimism, and the risk of a short-term pullback would increase.

Figure 8: CBOE 10 YR U.S. Treasury Yield Daily

103125 CBOE 10YR U.S. Treasury Yield Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield rose last week, closing at 4.101%. The long-term uptrend from August 2020 remains, despite the Fed’s 0.25%-point rate cut last week.

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Be alert: NYSE New Lows are on the rise.

 Figure 9: NYSE New Lows

103125 NYSE New Lows

Source: Stockcharts.com

New Lows On The NYSE peaked at 1167 on 4/7/25, then contracted sharply as the market bottomed in April.

New Lows have been rising in the last few weeks, closing Friday, 10/31, at 95. It would be positive in the short term if New Lows declines between 25 and 50. On the other hand, if new lows continue to increase and exceed 150, it would be a short-term negative, with more volatility and increased risk expected.

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 Figure 10: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

103125 $VIX

Source: Stockcharts.com

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of fear, peaked on April 7.

VIX remains near the lower range, closing at 17.44. Two closes above 25.00 would imply that the VIX will continue to rise and could jump between 32 and 40 quickly if there is any unexpected news.

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The SPY Intermediate Trend Remains Up

Figure 11: S&P 500 Weekly (SPY) and 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

103125 SPY Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 (SPY) remains in an intermediate uptrend from October 2022. After hitting a low in April 2025, SPY consolidated its gains and then broke out of its channel, followed by SPY continuously making new all-time highs.

The S&P 500 pace of gains has slowed, up +0.71%. The S&P 500’s most prominent positions, comprising over 30%, are Nvidia, Apple (with a 270.00 upside target hit), Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Due to the significant weighting, as these stocks perform, the S&P 500 will likely follow.

MACD (middle chart), a momentum indicator, remains overbought above 0, rising with a double top forming if MACD weakens.

The MFI Index hit 80 in July and remains overbought, indicating strength. There has not yet been any significant downturn, suggesting that money is not yet shifting out of the S&P 500. If MFI turns lower now, it would be considered a negative development.

Summing Up:

SPY remains resilient, with only minor retracements along the way. The intermediate upside projection remains at 700.00. A weekly close below 675.00 would imply a pullback toward 654.00, 633.00, 622.00, and 600.00. Support levels remain intact, leaving the bulls in control for now.

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The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index did not participate in the rally last week.

Figure 12: Daily iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

1031125 IWM Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) fell -1.28% for the week.

IWM uptrend from August (purple line) was slightly penetrated last week, but closed above. IWM remains above both the 50-day moving average (blue rectangle) and the 200-day moving average (red rectangle).

Support is at 243.00, 240.00, 232.00, 220.00, and 210.00. Resistance is at 248.00 and 252.00.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, having just missed falling below 0 in August to generate a fresh buy signal. Momentum moved sideways in August and September. However, in October, momentum is clearly weakening and is likely to remain negative in the short term if weakening momentum persists.

The Money Flow (lower chart) is falling and broke under support, which is negative.

In Sum:

If IWM turns up and has two closes above 252.00, it would be short-term positive. However, if IWM falls and closes below 243.00 for two straight days, it would be considered a short-term negative.

Figure 13: Weekly iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

103125 IWM Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Russell 2000 (IWM) remains in an intermediate uptrend.

Support levels are at 243.00, 236.00, 232.00, and 220.00.

MACD and Money Flow are both extended.

It’s positive that the IWM intermediate uptrend remains intact. On the other hand, if the uptrend and support levels at 243.00 and 236.00 do not hold, it would be negative.

Semiconductor (SMH) continues to lead the way.

Figure 14: Daily Semiconductors (SMH) (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

103125 SMH Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The top chart shows the Daily Semiconductor (SMH) ETF, which is concentrated mainly in US-based Mega-Cap Semiconductor companies. SMH can be highly volatile. SMH tends to be a leading indicator for the market when investors are willing to take on increased risk, and the opposite is true when the market is falling.

SMH closed up +3.38% last week but weakened on Thursday and Friday. SMH remains above both the rising 50-day MA (blue rectangle) and the 200-day MA (red rectangle), implying underlying strength. It’s positive, the September uptrend remains (purple line).

Support is at 360.00, 350.00, 330.00, 320.00, and 310.00. Resistance is at 372.00.

The MACD (middle chart) narrowly missed a fresh buy signal in September, resetting at 0. During strong moves, the MACD sometimes fails to fall below 0, and instead turns up, which is what occurred.

The Money Flow (lower chart) closed at 58.47, and is falling.

If Semiconductors (SMH) continue to hold support, it would have a short-term positive impact on the broad market. On the other hand, if SMH weakens, closing two days below 360.00, a pullback is likely to occur.

Summing Up:

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all rose last week. The major averages continue to hold support. However, market breadth has weakened considerably and is flashing warning signals. For the week on the New York Stock Exchange Index, there were 1013 more declining stocks than advancing ones. If market breadth continues to weaken and price support breaks, end-of-year tax selling and profit-taking could occur. Make it a priority to review your portfolio. Manage your risk, and your wealth will grow.

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Bonnie S. Gortler

Bonnie Gortler, Consultant, Coach, and Author specializing in Wealth and Well-Being, is a successful stock market professional who has been instrumental in managing multi-million-dollar client portfolios within a top-rated investment firm during her over 35-year corporate career. As the author of "Journey to Wealth" anand "Journey to Well-Being", Bonnie is dedicated to teaching the importance of risk management and achieving true financial well-being by integrating both the technical and mental aspects of investing. With an M.B.A. and certification as a life coach, Bonnie combines her passion for coaching, consulting, and blogging to inspire people globally. Her powerful techniques and winning mindset help others experience personal growth and financial success. Explore wealth-building tips, personal development strategies, and more at BonnieGortler.com, and discover how you can enhance your wealth and well-being.

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