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Support levels on the major averages are intact, despite the decline in early March.  Technical indicators based on market breadth and volume is in the process of working off its overbought condition from the rise since the election.  In addition historical research shows after January and February are strong months; the year has the potential for additional gains. This doesn’t mean a short term decline will not occur, however the odds favor declines could be a buying opportunity.

The optimistic tone of the market has changed somewhat as the expectations of rising rates became a concern for investors.  The 10-year Treasury note yields have been rising steadily since the end of February spooking investors.  There has been an overall weakening in market breadth indicators that need to be monitored. Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate and further gains over the next several weeks.

The overall technical picture of the market remains positive. The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in February.   When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  The Technology sector is acting well. The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is not far from its recent all-time high.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Strength of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 03/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.91%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.11%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.50%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.22%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.67% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.11% totaling 40.52%.

The QQQ broke out at 123.00 (red circle above) on January 6 and has been steadily rising. The QQQ has now slightly penetrated the channel objective at 130.00 (top blue channel line), now trading at 131.30. The intermediate trend is up as long as the QQQ remains above the up trendline line (pink). The next upside target is 139.00.   Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ.   Apple has moved sideways for 10 days giving up no ground.  If Apple continues making new highs, this could be positive for the technology sector over the next several months.   If the QQQ falls below 123.00, breaking the up-trend, my bullish outlook would be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  Its bullish MACD has confirmed the price high made in QQQ suggesting any weakness in the QQQ most likely would be temporary.

 

A Breakout in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is Possible?

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.   The S&P 500 (SPY) hit its weekly upside channel on March 1st at 240.32 and pulled back.  Market breath has weakened however the SPY has not given up much ground over the last two weeks, a bullish sign.  If the SPY can get through the old highs, higher projections above 260.00 will be given.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum.  Like the QQQ discussed above, MACD has confirmed the price high in the SPY and is in a clear uptrend.  This is the sign of a healthy market.   Look for the SPY to at least test the old highs.

Summing Up:

Market breadth has been weak as of late after being very strong for many months. There has been no real thrust on the advancing days to get excited about, however not much ground has been given up either.  Market breath indicators have worked off its overbought condition since the election.   Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate and potential further gains over the next several weeks. MACD over the intermediate term for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 (SPY) have confirmed the strength of the overall market.   Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

I would love to hear from you.  Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts March 15, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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February had a strong month of gains following January’s advance.  The Dow Industrials rose 12 straight days.  Healthcare (XLV), Utilities, and Financials were the leading sectors for the month along with solid gains by the Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq.  Our trading models remain neutral-positive and the tape remains bullish.  Up trends are intact.  Some indices have met their intermediate channel objectives including Regional Banks, (KRE) Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM); however there is a good chance more gains are ahead. The bulls remain in control.

What Do You Want To Watch Now?

The top portion of the chart shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion. After the election the Russell 2000 (IWM) skyrocketed.  The IWM made a high of 138.85 on 12/08/16 overshooting slightly its channel objective at 138.00 (green rectangle).  After making a high, the IWM moved sideways for about 8 weeks, not giving up much ground.

As of March 1st, a potential breakout may have begun.  The upside objective is 157.00 while support is at 133.00.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is overbought, confirming the new high made in IWM.  If the rally stalls MACD can give a sell quickly.  Its bullish, the uptrend from January 2016 is in effect, and MACD has confirmed the IWM high.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Weekly Price (Top), and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

The top part of the chart is the weekly (IWM) Russell 2000 Index / (SPY) S&P 500 Index Ratio (IWM/SPY).  A rising line means the IWM is stronger, and if falling, the SPY is stronger. The IWM/SPY ratio peaked on 12/05/16. The IWM has clearly been losing strength, however the uptrend from January 2016 (black line) is intact.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD, already on a sell warning of a potential change of leadership.  Not only is momentum weakening, but at the same time the IWM/SPY relative strength ratio has broken it’s up trend. Also, the average daily trading range for the past 25 days has been more than double the SPY.  Even though the IWM has the potential to be breaking out, if you are heavily weighted in small caps, it may be a good time to reduce your exposure and lower your risk, shifting part of your assets to the SPY.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and Weekly 12-26-9 MACD (Bottom)

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 03/01/17 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.58%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.45%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.66% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.64%.  Investing in the S&P 500 gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The top part of the chart shows the S&P 500 (SPY) weekly trading channel.  The S&P 500 (SPY) has been in an uptrend since December 2016 and steadily rising since the election.  While the Russell 2000 (IWM) is at its top of its trading channel, the SPY still has some room to go before hitting its upper channel at 245.50.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, confirming the highs in the SPY. This is bullish.

Just To Sum Up:

The tape remains strong. Major averages continue to make new highs and pullbacks have been minor.  The Russell 2000 (IWM) has met its intermediate objective.  The SPY has taken over leadership in terms of relative strength. Even though the IWM has the potential for a break out, if you are heavily weighted in small caps, it may be a good time to reduce your exposure, lowering your risk by shifting part of your assets to the SPY.  Our models remain overall neutral-positive so stocks could rise for several more weeks. As long as the Russell 2000 (IWM) stays above its support at 133.00 and the SPY stays above its hourly support of 234.00, you can expect higher highs. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 Investing Tips To More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts March 2, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum
optimism is the best time to sell.
” ~John Templeton

New record closing highs seem to be a normal occurrence during 2017 as the Trump rally continues.  Equity markets have been going up on expectations of increased infrastructure spending, decreased regulation, and lower corporate taxes.  The advance has been broad, although some sectors have clearly been stronger than others.

Some major averages are near the top of their channels as some stocks have had hefty gains.  There are many favorable looking charting patterns, while others are in the process of the beginning stages of a parabolic advance.  This is a chart pattern in which prices rise (or fall) with an increasingly steep slope.   When the advance stops, a large decline follows that you want to avoid.

Our trading models remain neutral positive and the tape remains bullish.  The best kind of advance is the one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher, as investors wait for the decline which doesn’t happen.  This appears to be what is happening now.   The trend is your friend.  For now, enjoy the ride.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.

As of 02/13/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.83%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.25%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.53%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.15%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.65% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.09%, totaling 40.50%.   All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election.   Apple (AAPL), its largest holding has had significant gains already this year, and has higher upside projections that will help the QQQ, and has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

Revisiting the article in the Systems and Forecasts newsletter on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout.  This indeed did happen.  The QQQ is getting close to its 130.00 objective, closing at 129.40 on 02/15/17.

It looks like the QQQ could start another leg up, going through 130.00 to potentially reach 139.00 (orange line), the next target.  As long as the QQQ is above the up trendline line, the trend is up.    The trend line is important; it coincides with the break out at 123.00 that is now acting as support.  For another leg up to start, the QQQ needs to close above 130.00 for 2days and declines should be contained between 1-3%.  If the QQQ falls below the up trendline my bullish outlook will be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum.   MACD is overbought, however still rising, and gaining momentum which is positive.   MACD has confirmed the price high suggesting even if the QQQQ would decline another rally attempt would occur.

QQQ Performance Will Be Helped By Apple: Long Term Trend Is Up

AAPL Monthly Price and Up Trend Line (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

** Apple’s stock underwent a 7-for-1 split, giving 6 additional shares to each shareholder on 06/09/2014.  The stock closed at 645 becoming 92.00/per share.

The top chart is a price chart that shows the high-low-close each month of Apple since 2005.  The Black line is the prevailing key uptrend line.  As long as Apple’s price is above the uptrend line, the trend is up and further profit potential on the long side is likely.   Apple was under selling pressure since its high in April 2015, when it was out of favor by investors.  In September 2016, Apple broke its down trend (orange line), and investors stepped in to buy.   After its quarterly earnings were announced on 01/31/17, Apple gained 11.7% (121.35-135.60 as of 02/15/17 intraday) and then soared ahead breaking its all-time intraday high of $134.54 set in April 2015 on February 14, 2016.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is on a buy, and has a very favorable pattern turning up from an oversold condition below 0, where good buying opportunities develop.  This certainly has been the case for Apple.

In 2009 MACD was oversold, below 0, and generated a buy.  MACD rose into 2011 while MACD went sideways into 2012 as Apple stock continued to rise from 11.76 to 100.72, +756% gain.   MACD turned down crossing its signal line in 2012, generating a sell in 2013.  Apple fell from 100.72 to 52.55, a 47.8% loss.  MACD then started to flatten out forming a rising double bottom formation (one of the most bullish formations to look for on charts and make money).  Apple rose from 52.55 to 134.54, +156.0% gain. MACD peaked in 2015, turning down, losing momentum and Apple fell from 134.54 to 89.47, a -33.5% loss.

Apple’s latest rise off of the bottom is from 89.47 to 135.50, a gain of 51.5%. The good news is the MACD pattern remains very bullish even with its rise to new highs.  Next objective is 155.00 and support is 127.00.  There has been a definite shift in investor sentiment since the election and belief the company will benefit from potential changes down the road by President Trump. Time will tell.

Summing Up:

Major averages have made new all-time highs, a common theme of 2017.  The advance that is taking place is the best kind of advance, one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher as investors wait for the decline.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did break out in January, and could well be on its way to another 7% gain.  The trend is up.  Apple, its largest component has a very favorable MACD pattern suggesting there is more room to the upside on top of its recent gains.   The trend is your friend. Enjoy the ride.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts February  16, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NYSE Composite Index all had a favorable start in 2017, breaking out to new record closing highs after 6 weeks spent consolidating within a tight trading range. The Dow made it through the psychological 20,000 milestone and the Transportation average confirmed the Dow Jones Industrials’ new high. International indices, which have struggled, came to life and have improving technical patterns.

However, in the past week the averages couldn’t hold onto all of their gains even though support levels remain intact. Our trading models remain neutral positive. Some signs of concern showed up the last few days in January. Investors’ selling was spurred by investors’ uncertainty about world events, interest rates rising, and potential disappointment in earnings by major companies including Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). Apple’s earnings were well received by investors. Apple’s stock rose sharply, now less than 5% from its all-time high with a very favorable long term monthly chart. Facebook rose on their earnings announcement lifting its stock to new highs, followed by some profit taking.

The concern is some profit taking after the S&P 500 stalled just below its key level at 2300. In addition small caps (Russell 2000 Index) and the financial sector (XLF and KRE) which had led the market higher since the election have now started to weaken.

What ETF to Track to Signal Further Gains or Trouble Ahead?

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and RSI 14 (Bottom)

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Regional Banking Index (KRE), an exchange traded fund (ETF) that began in 2006. KRE tracks an equally weighted index of common stocks of leading regional banks or thrifts (savings and loan associations). As of 01/31/17 the top holdings of KRE are: M&T Bank Corporation (3.64%), PNC Financial Services Group I, (PNC) (3.64), Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) 3.60, Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 3.59 %, SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI) 3.58%, BB&T Corporation (BBT) 3.57%, and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) 3.57% totaling 25.19%.

Notice the clear trading channel in the top chart (the three green lines). KRE is not for the faint of heart. It’s a volatile index that I monitor intraday for the trend of the market and potential trend changes. Another financial sector ETF to follow is the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), which is quieter than KRE. After the election, investors very quickly moved assets into the financial sector fueling the rally that rocketed KRE from 43.59 to 49.87 in one week, a 14.41% gain. Four weeks later KRE rose further to 56.29 a 12.87% gain, breaking through its trading channel surpassing the high made in November 2015.

However, KRE has stalled, consolidating for 9 weeks. It looks like KRE is at a critical juncture now.

A break above 57.00 would suggest KRE will challenge the upper channel at 59 over the next few weeks. If KRE can get through the upper channel a higher objective would be given and this would also have bullish implication for the overall market.

However, a break below its consolidation, 53.40 (red rectangle) would imply a potential test of 49.00

A break below 49.00 would suggest a serious decline is imminent.

The bottom half of the chart shows the Relative Strength Index, a measure of momentum developed by Welles Wilder. RSI is based on the ratio of upward price changes to downward price changes. RSI reached 82.43 its highest weekly reading since the ETF began in 2006. RSI readings of 70 or higher show strength and are most times considered bullish. Generally as long as RSI stays above 40, the trend is up.

When you have a powerful thrust as KRE did on its most recent breakout, this is normally not a sign of a top. Most times you would get a relatively contained pullback or sideways consolidation before another rally attempt would occur. It’s also a bullish sign the uptrend in RSI from 1/16/16 remains intact. RSI has lost some momentum, however its normal that momentum temporarily weakens after a huge rally before the next leg higher. As long as the uptrend is in effect the odds favor the bulls. If the downtrend is broken (black line) a warning sign would be given.

Summing Up:
The stock market is off to a good start in 2017 as many major averages have made new all-time highs. Our models remain neutral-positive. However, uncertainty about world events, interest rates rising, and company earnings remain in investor’s minds. The momentum of the rally since the election has slowed and the market is consolidating it gains. I recommend keeping an eye on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) for a sign of further strength or weakness that would give the clue of a potential change. For now the bulls remain in control.

If you have questions or comments on this article, please feel free to contact me at bgortler@signalert.com; phone: 1-516-829-6444. I would love to hear from you.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts February 3, 2017

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Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The first week of 2017 was strong after many major averages made new highs in December.  Since that time major averages have paused, digesting their gains.  The Dow Industrials has come close a few times to the key psychological 20,000 level, however so far unable to push through.   The Russell 2000 (IWM) peaked just above its upside objective at 138.00 and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) also made its upside objective at 307.50, however then pulled back.  When the Dow closes above 20,000 there is a good chance other indices will also move higher, surpassing their old highs.

Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate.  The overall technical picture of the market remains positive.  The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in December.  When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  It was also a good sign that there were 490 daily new highs on the NYSE on December 8, the most since May 2013.  These types of readings are more bullish than bearish and suggest higher prices going forward.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is now leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Direction of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its trend channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 01/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 10.87%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.53%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.47%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 4.98%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.75% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.19% totaling 39.79%.

All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election. The QQQ rose 7 straight sessions, closing at a new all-time high.  With its recent strength, it looks like the QQQ could break out from here, (red circle above).

The upside channel objective is 130.00 (top blue channel line).

For now, the trend is our friend, however later this year could be more challenging as the market is in the late stages of a bull market.  As long as the QQQ is above the retracement line from the break out of 112.00 in July 2016 (pink line), now acting as support, periodic declines most likely will be buying opportunities. A break below 112.00 would be considered bearish and suggest a more serious market decline.

Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ which has a favorable monthly MACD pattern turning up from an oversold condition, after breaking its downtrend in September 2016 (chart not shown).  This has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  MACD has broken its down trendline which is favorable; however MACD is not in its most ideal buying position as the turn up didn’t occur from an oversold condition below 0.  This pattern needs to be monitored to see if MACD continues to rise further making a new high picking up momentum, as did the weekly MACD on the Russell 2000 (IWM) from October 2016 – December 2016.

Summing Up:

The overall trend of the market remains optimistic even though the Dow Industrials has been unable to get through the key psychological 20,000 level.  Maybe earning season that begins 01/13/17 will be the fuel that is needed to get through the level.  Upside channel objectives have already been met on the Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) and the SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY).  So far the pullback has not jeopardized the bullish outlook.  In the meantime the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up seven days in a row, reaching a new all-time high and has slightly penetrated its channel suggesting a possible breakout will occur.  Look for strength in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to lead the overall market higher. As long as the QQQ remains above the retracement line from the break out in July 2016 (pink line) above 112.00, intermittent declines most likely will be buying opportunities.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts January 13, 2017


Discover the right wealth building attitude…

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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Moneyjumpforjoybag

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.”  

~Warren Buffet

Tracking your investments closely leads to more wealth in the short and long run.  If you are investing in the stock market, it’s a good idea to treat your investment portfolio the way you would if you were running your own business.  Wise investors and business owners track their #money closely.  It’s easy for you to begin tracking your investments.

Could you tell me right now how your investments are doing, or is that information left in the hands of someone else? No need to worry if you are not up to date with the exact figures because with today’s technology it’s simple for you to access your investments in real time.

Why do you want to track your investments closely?

You want to track your investments because the stock market is quite unpredictable. At times the market can move up and down, more or less than 5% in one day. No excuses, it’s a good idea to watch your portfolio.

Are you investing with the money you need to live on, or its money you have put away for your future?  Either way, you don’t want to be in the dark of about situation you may have been able to avoid.

Money bag PixabayAnswer These 9 Questions To Protect Your Money From Surprises

  1. What is your registration on the account? Is it a taxable account or non-taxable?
  2. Are your assets in a CD or money market that has a fixed rate of return?
  3. What is your risk on your investments; how much can you lose?
  4. Are your investments aligned with the current stage of life you are in?
  5. Do you have a company plan where all of your assets are in one single stock or are your assets at a brokerage house that invests for you?
  6. What is your portfolio invested in? (Example: Stocks, Mutual Funds, Bonds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETF’s)?
  7. Are you aware of the potential loss you can have if the stock market went down sharply?
  8. What fees are you paying on your investments?
  9. What percentage of equity and bonds are in your portfolio?

As a savvy investor it helps to take control of your investment by using an array of resource tools to help you track your investments. Protect your money so there are no surprises. In minutes you can visit a reputable website where you can follow what is happening, and prepare yourself at a moment’s notice if you decide an adjustment may be necessary. Accessing your investment portfolio on the web will allow you to read the latest news reports that affect the market or find key information that will disclose a buying or selling opportunity. You can view intra day price movements on stocks, exchange traded funds of all different sectors of the market and track mutual fund performance. You’ll discover by taking an interest in the resources that are available, you will become a more confident and informed investor. Both are keys in your financial success!

I would like to share with you a free and easy resource you can use when educating yourself. It also happens to be my favorite tracking site on the internet, check it out and go to Yahoo.com. Click on tab marked “Finance” to get started. Yahoo provides a wealth of timely information on what’s going on in the investment world in straightforward language meant to help any level of investor. Once there you will find that…

Yahoo Finance Can Help You:vision board wealth for life

  • See how your favorite stock market index is doing.
  • Watch your portfolio daily, check on the price movement of your individual stocks or mutual funds.
  • Export historical data of mutual funds, ETF’s, or stocks,
  • You can compare your investing holdings using their charting tools.
  • See and experiment with the technical indicators. They will give you clues to the trend of the market.

Protect yourself today by tracking your investments. By taking the time to do some research before you invest in the stock market you will avoid possible surprises that you are able to control. The market does not always go up (great fun) and there are some severe downturns (not fun) which can prove costly when you’re uninformed. Take care of your portfolio by tracking your investments closely by becoming a better informed investor. Always ask questions and you will find yourself learning more and more about investing. Whether you are a novice or professional, it’s a good idea to develop good money making habits.  Doing your research beforehand and watching the market closely will only deepen your commitment to continue tracking your investments. Over time you will find your careful attention will create the #wealth you deserve so you may live the lifestyle you desire.

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Many stocks finished October down for the month.  The weakness extended early in November where the S&P 500 index was down 9 consecutive days with concerns about the outcome of the presidential election.  A two day bounce followed, alleviating the oversold condition that was created.  As the votes were gathered investors were nervous and the overnight futures were down sharply suggesting a lower opening on Wednesday.  During the night, Donald Trump was named president.  The panic was gone by the time the market opened.

Many market averages rallied strongly off their lows. There was a split market. Sectors such as Health and Finance moved higher, and other sectors were under pressure such as Utilities, Emerging Markets, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.   Many investors, institutions and hedge funds were surprised by the outcome and had to change their investments quickly, or decide they wanted to be invested now that the election was complete.  It’s still early to forecast what is ahead.  Our trading models are in a neutral positive condition entering the most favorable seasonal period of the year, suggesting downside risk is limited.

You can expect more wide intraday trading swings in the market until the dust settles. This could take some time.   A test of the lows over the next 3-6 weeks would be a safer buying opportunity if investors shift from buyers to seller.

What to Monitor Now for a Safer Entry

  • Monitor overseas markets to see if they move higher than 11/09/16 close.  Watch the following international ETF’s, Ishares China (FXI), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Mexico (EWW).
  • Look for intraday trading swings to be less than 1% in the S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM).
  • Long term interest rates stop rising.  Watch TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Yr. Treasury Bond (ETF).
  • High Yield Bond Mutual Funds turn up and take out their recent highs. Use (HYG) or (JNK) as a benchmark.
  • Momentum in intermediate and long term charts to turn more favorable, strengthening instead of weakening.
  • An improvement in market breadth daily and on a weekly basis.
  • Watch to see if the technology sector becomes a leader over the S&P 500. Watch the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Semiconductors HOLDR (SMH).  Also keep an eye on Apple, which has been under some selling pressure the past few weeks.
  • When the market declines notice the movement in VIX (an index that measures fear).  Look if VIX accelerates quickly or it moves up quietly.  When the market falls it would be a bullish sign if VIX moves lower.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly Price And Channel

110916-weekly-newsletter

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. The S&P 500 (SPY) broke below its trading channel breaking the uptrend (green line). The SPY looked like it would go lower however; there was no follow through to the downside and after the election reversed sharply higher.

What a difference a few days can make. An explosive rally developed after making a low during the night of the presidential election, the S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 216.50 on 11/9/16. The SPY is in the process of testing resistance between 217.00 and 220.00 from July 2016 highs (blue circle).  If the S&P 500 (SPY) can get through resistance, it could potentially go to the upper channel at 228.00.  If the market turns down, support is at 214.00 followed by 212.00 and 197.00.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum. It was a good sign MACD confirmed the high in July before generating a sell suggesting another attempt at the high would be made.  Momentum has stopped accelerating downwards, and has started to flatten, both good signs. Notice however that MACD is not in an oversold condition where major bottoms take place.  If the S&P 500 (SPY) does rise and break out to a new yearly high and touch the upper channel, there is a good chance MACD will not confirm and form a negative divergence.

Summing Up:

Investors’ perception changed quickly from bearish to bullish after the election upset by our new President Donald Trump.  The S&P 500 (SPY) rose sharply and is again challenging resistance at 217-220 area.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) is 228.00. Intermediate momentum indicators are not in position for a major bottom and not likely to confirm the recent strength, therefore upside potential could be limited once the dust settles. Stock selection is very important now, as the market is split. Investors are moving out of defensive sectors, market breadth is weak and new lows are increasing. More wide intraday swings are expected to continue. I recommend reviewing your holdings and not being overweight in one particular sector. Don’t rush into buying stocks; look for a safer entry in 3-6 weeks to add to your investments.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts November 10, 2016

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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No drama has occurred in the stock market as October comes to a close.  Investors continue rotating assets among different sectors as the major averages remain within a fairly tight trading range. For the short term the market is oversold and has favorable momentum patterns suggesting another attempt toward the highs is possible.  Supporting the market is strength in the Technology (QQQ) sector, trading near their highs for the year.   A big concern I have is the weakening momentum oscillators on the intermediate and long term charts on many stocks and several market indices.

As long as the support levels remain in-tact, the bulls remain in control.  Each time the market trades near the top or bottom of their range, prices stall and move in the opposite direction.  On 10/13/16, there was a small scare when the S&P 500 (SPY) slightly violated support at 212.00 intraday, tripping stops by investors. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell to a low of 211.21, however no heavy selling followed.  On the same day the S&P broke below support, the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) held above its key support at 117.00. These are very important levels that need to hold.

Stock selection now is more important since market breadth has weakened considerably since the blast off from the February lows. There has been a lot of selling pressure in October by investors in health care (XLV), utilities (XLU) and real estate (IYR).  Recently there were 104 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange Index making new 52 week highs, diverging from their peak reading earlier this year in July when there were 414 new highs. This is not a sign of a healthy broad market.  The good news is 9/22/16, the New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance Decline Line made a new high.  It’s very rare a market top occurs without at least another rally attempt toward new highs.   As long as support levels hold, look for another attempt for the stock market to break out to the upside.

What Charts You Want To Watch Now:

 

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Daily With Channel (Top) and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

 102516-spy-daily-use

The chart on the top is a daily SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.   The S&P 500 (SPY) is 1% from its lower channel and near its recent low.  On 10/13/16, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell below support at 212.00, and made an intraday low of 211.21. Since then, there has been an unconvincing rally staying within a tight range. There is resistance above at 217.00. If the S&P 500 goes above 217.00 this will get the bulls excited.  Under 212.00 the odds are likely the bears will rule and if the S&P 500 falls below 211.00 then expect heavy selling.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum.   One of my favorite technical patterns has formed a positive divergence suggesting the S&P 500 will go higher.   A positive divergence is when you make a low in price (top chart) and the oscillator doesn’t make a lower low, instead the oscillator reading is higher showing positive momentum.   This is exactly what is happening now in MACD.   An added bonus, there is not only a positive divergence but there is also a slight penetration of the down trend. Until the uptrend is broken, give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

 The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly Price And Channel

102416-spy-weekly

The chart above shows that the S&P 500 (SPY) has broken out of its trading channel, penetrating resistance in July 2016 (red circle).   The S&P 500 moved higher at first and then pulled back retracing its breakout and now is moving sideways.  Notice on the recent sell off, the S&P 500 fell slightly below the channel making a low of 211.21 holding just the above up-trend line.  For now, the intermediate trend is intact (the green line) and the trend is up.   If violated it would not be a good sign for the final week of October or the start of November.  Next support is the middle channel at 197.00, 9.35% lower from today’s close at 214.12.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Weekly Price With Channel

102416-iwm-weekly

The chart above shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.   The Russell 2000 (IWM) rose sharply from its February bottom. The IWM failed on 9/19/16 at 125.88 to penetrate its high made on 06/22/15 at 129.10.  The IWM turned down but is holding above the middle channel and above the uptrend line (blue line).   Both the middle channel and the uptrend line are in the same area acting as support. As is the case with the S&P 500 (SPY) the intermediate trend remains up for the IWM. The upside channel objective is 138.00.    As long as the IWM is above 117.00, higher prices are likely, however if the IWM falls below for two days on a closing basis, the intermediate trend would turn negative and the odds of a potential decline rise dramatically.

Summing Up:

The tug of war between the bulls and bears has not been decided.  The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remain in their trading range.   The market is short term oversold, and there is a positive divergence on the daily S&P 500 (SPY), bullish.   As long as the support level remains in-tact, I recommend giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.    If the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below 211.00 for two days expect the bears to come out of hiding and wider market intraday swings.   Another point of reference is watching the Russell 2000, (IWM) to hold above its key support at 117.00.  For now, the tug of war between the bulls and bears remain.

I would love to hear from you.   Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com sharing your thoughts, or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts October 26, 2016

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Discover the right wealth building attitude

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Do you believe that news reports are a dependable source for investment advice? There are many experts and websites over the internet with different information. At times it can be quite alarming.  Are you feeling confident that your stock market investments will hold up when the market feels as if you were on a roller coaster ride? Think about the review process that you currently have in place for your investment portfolio, if you are managing your own investments. It’s wise to have an investment strategy that is flexible and allows you the ability to exit quickly in order to reduce your exposure if the stock market is not performing well. You can reduce some of your uneasiness by seeking the advice of an investment professional that can answer your specific questions one-on-one when you are feeling unsure.

It’s wise to review your portfolio and lower your Risk by avoiding big losses. You want a portfolio to suit your needs within a certain time frame depending on your goals and objectives. If you are feeling stressed about your investments here are some ideas to follow that will help you in meeting your investment goals.

Simple Tips to Navigate During Stressful Stock Market Times

  • roller coaster stock-market-cartoons-5-300x2021Watch your investments to make sure they are doing what you expect.
  • No matter the strategy you choose, it’s a good idea to measure the returns and risks compared to a benchmark index for comparison.
  • You could be over weighted in a particular sector under pressure.  It’s a good idea not to have too many of your eggs in one basket.
  • Review your investment to see if any individual stock, exchange traded fund, or bond position exceeds 5% of your overall portfolio.
  • Prepare your plan with an exit strategy to allow you to bounce back before something unforeseen occurs.
  • When altering a security keep the whole portfolio in mind.
  • Individual stocks are volatile; you can make money fast or lose money quickly.
  • If you are investing in individual bonds review the credit rating to see they are good quality bonds.

It’s crucial that you set clear goals and objectives for your success.  Keep an eye on your portfolio so that you will know what is or isn’t performing well.  Be ready, flexible, willing, and prepared to make a change when and if you are feeling stressed by about your investments. Your future finances depend on it!

stock market roller coasterYou can feel good today about putting into motion a plan to build wealth without stress as you move even closer to a life of wealth and well-being.  You want to have a clear plan as you embrace change with new eyes and a renewed commitment toward your future.   Take time to do what is necessary in discovering ways to become more at ease with your finances.   Make the decision to live a healthy wealthy lifestyle filled with less frustration so you can enjoy the life you want.  As you continue your journey forward, remember to always place yourself in the best possible situation for success when creating a life full of wealth and well-being.

Let’s talk.  You are invited to set up your Free 30 minute Wealth and Well-Being Discovery session with me by calling 516-778-8714 or by clicking here or send me an email at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com. I would love to connect with you.

Wishing you health, wealth & happiness,

~Bonnie

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For almost 2 months, the market was quiet, moving sideways to higher. The S&P 500 (SPY) daily change was less than 1%, and then September 9th occurred.  Investors’ perception changed from bullish to bearish, spooked by news of potential rising rates in September, sooner than expected and the S&P 500 fell 2.45%.   It’s been months since heavy selling has occurred. Volatility rose sharply. VIX, (an index that measures fear) increased from an intraday low of 11.65 to a high of 20.51 in two days, a gain of 76%.  There was no place to hide.

The next day, stocks reversed quickly to the upside, however the rally couldn’t be sustained.  Heavier selling the next day was broad based.   Few stocks rose and many fell. The tape showed very poor market breadth readings on heavy volume, including new 52 week highs deteriorating. The trading screen was full of red, emotions rekindled, and a feeling of angst by investors was front and center (including me).   Volatility is back.   Risk has increased.   Market breadth is no longer favorable supporting the market, so stock and sector selection will be more important making money going forward.   Our models have moved from positive to neutral and no longer suggest the market is low risk.

For the short term in favor of the bulls, the major averages are only a few percent from their highs. Support levels on the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have held so far.  The unfavorable seasonal period of September, including expiration will soon be behind us.  Institutions will begin to focus on the end of quarter window dressing, preparing for rising rates and the presidential elections. Also supporting the market is Apple, (AAPL) the stock investors had shied away from, out of favor since the highs made in April 2015. Apple (AAPL) has clearly broken its weekly downtrend to the upside, now up from 102.53 on 091216 to trading at 114.91 as of this writing.  If Apple rises more you can look for the technology sector to continue to be stronger than the S&P 500.   In the long run this is a bullish sign for the market.

As of this writing the latest decline looks more like a short-term pullback within an uptrend that could lead to more gains and another test of the highs.   I am cautiously bullish watching closely to see if the support levels hold, and if the intermediate up trend remains in-tact I will give the market the benefit of the doubt.

Chart To Watch Now:

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

spy091516

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.  As of 09/14/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.07%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.39%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.93% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.74%. Investing in the S&P 500 (SPY) gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The top part of the chart shows the S&P 500 (SPY) penetrated its trading channel, getting through resistance at 212-214.00 in July 2016 (red circle).  Notice on the recent sell off, the S&P 500 tested the breakout of the channel making a low of 212.50, holding just above 212.00 acting as key support.   As long as the S&P 500 (SPY) can hold 212.00 and turns up, this would be considered a successful test of the upside breakout in July.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) remains at 228.00 mentioned in the August 18th newsletter.

On the other hand, if the SPY closes below 212.00 for two days, a warning would be given a further decline is likely.   As long as 204.00 on the S&P 500 (SPY) is not violated, the intermediate trend remains intact (the green line) and up.  If violated, the decline could accelerate fast and possibly be more than a short term correction.   Next support 197.00.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum. MACD is now falling, and has generated a sell. It’s very clear momentum is weakening.   It’s a good sign MACD confirmed the breakout and no negative divergence took place.   Tops many times take a long time to form and the confirmation makes me believe another leg up could occur before there is a more serious decline.   Its positive MACD confirmed the breakout and no negative divergence took place.

Summing Up  

There was a short term change in investors’ perception from bullish to bearish that evoked panic selling and caused stock prices to fall sharply with increased volatility.  It looks like there has been a successful test of the upside breakout in July.  Warning signals are starting to form in intermediate momentum indicators that a potential top is looming and upside potential could be limited.  Stock and sector selection will be more important as the year moves forward.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) remains at 228.00.  For now the intermediate trend remain up.  Quiet times are over, expect volatility, and more risk. Review your investments now before the bears take charge and the intermediate trend changes from bullish to bearish.  The key number to watch on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 212.00.   A close below 212.00 for two days would be a warning further decline is likely.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com sharing your thoughts, or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report
Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts Sept 15, 2016

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Discover the right wealth building attitude

Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 
 
 
 


Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical result and is not meant to represent the actual performance of any particular investment. Future results cannot be guaranteed. Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed either in any form that the above information is a statement of fact, of opinion, or the result of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisers to consider the suitability of investments discussed above for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels.

 

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