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The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum
optimism is the best time to sell.
” ~John Templeton

New record closing highs seem to be a normal occurrence during 2017 as the Trump rally continues.  Equity markets have been going up on expectations of increased infrastructure spending, decreased regulation, and lower corporate taxes.  The advance has been broad, although some sectors have clearly been stronger than others.

Some major averages are near the top of their channels as some stocks have had hefty gains.  There are many favorable looking charting patterns, while others are in the process of the beginning stages of a parabolic advance.  This is a chart pattern in which prices rise (or fall) with an increasingly steep slope.   When the advance stops, a large decline follows that you want to avoid.

Our trading models remain neutral positive and the tape remains bullish.  The best kind of advance is the one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher, as investors wait for the decline which doesn’t happen.  This appears to be what is happening now.   The trend is your friend.  For now, enjoy the ride.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.

As of 02/13/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.83%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.25%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.53%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.15%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.65% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.09%, totaling 40.50%.   All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election.   Apple (AAPL), its largest holding has had significant gains already this year, and has higher upside projections that will help the QQQ, and has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

Revisiting the article in the Systems and Forecasts newsletter on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout.  This indeed did happen.  The QQQ is getting close to its 130.00 objective, closing at 129.40 on 02/15/17.

It looks like the QQQ could start another leg up, going through 130.00 to potentially reach 139.00 (orange line), the next target.  As long as the QQQ is above the up trendline line, the trend is up.    The trend line is important; it coincides with the break out at 123.00 that is now acting as support.  For another leg up to start, the QQQ needs to close above 130.00 for 2days and declines should be contained between 1-3%.  If the QQQ falls below the up trendline my bullish outlook will be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum.   MACD is overbought, however still rising, and gaining momentum which is positive.   MACD has confirmed the price high suggesting even if the QQQQ would decline another rally attempt would occur.

QQQ Performance Will Be Helped By Apple: Long Term Trend Is Up

AAPL Monthly Price and Up Trend Line (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

** Apple’s stock underwent a 7-for-1 split, giving 6 additional shares to each shareholder on 06/09/2014.  The stock closed at 645 becoming 92.00/per share.

The top chart is a price chart that shows the high-low-close each month of Apple since 2005.  The Black line is the prevailing key uptrend line.  As long as Apple’s price is above the uptrend line, the trend is up and further profit potential on the long side is likely.   Apple was under selling pressure since its high in April 2015, when it was out of favor by investors.  In September 2016, Apple broke its down trend (orange line), and investors stepped in to buy.   After its quarterly earnings were announced on 01/31/17, Apple gained 11.7% (121.35-135.60 as of 02/15/17 intraday) and then soared ahead breaking its all-time intraday high of $134.54 set in April 2015 on February 14, 2016.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is on a buy, and has a very favorable pattern turning up from an oversold condition below 0, where good buying opportunities develop.  This certainly has been the case for Apple.

In 2009 MACD was oversold, below 0, and generated a buy.  MACD rose into 2011 while MACD went sideways into 2012 as Apple stock continued to rise from 11.76 to 100.72, +756% gain.   MACD turned down crossing its signal line in 2012, generating a sell in 2013.  Apple fell from 100.72 to 52.55, a 47.8% loss.  MACD then started to flatten out forming a rising double bottom formation (one of the most bullish formations to look for on charts and make money).  Apple rose from 52.55 to 134.54, +156.0% gain. MACD peaked in 2015, turning down, losing momentum and Apple fell from 134.54 to 89.47, a -33.5% loss.

Apple’s latest rise off of the bottom is from 89.47 to 135.50, a gain of 51.5%. The good news is the MACD pattern remains very bullish even with its rise to new highs.  Next objective is 155.00 and support is 127.00.  There has been a definite shift in investor sentiment since the election and belief the company will benefit from potential changes down the road by President Trump. Time will tell.

Summing Up:

Major averages have made new all-time highs, a common theme of 2017.  The advance that is taking place is the best kind of advance, one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher as investors wait for the decline.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did break out in January, and could well be on its way to another 7% gain.  The trend is up.  Apple, its largest component has a very favorable MACD pattern suggesting there is more room to the upside on top of its recent gains.   The trend is your friend. Enjoy the ride.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts February  16, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The first week of 2017 was strong after many major averages made new highs in December.  Since that time major averages have paused, digesting their gains.  The Dow Industrials has come close a few times to the key psychological 20,000 level, however so far unable to push through.   The Russell 2000 (IWM) peaked just above its upside objective at 138.00 and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (MDY) also made its upside objective at 307.50, however then pulled back.  When the Dow closes above 20,000 there is a good chance other indices will also move higher, surpassing their old highs.

Our stock market timing models remain neutral-positive indicating a potentially profitable market climate.  The overall technical picture of the market remains positive.  The cumulative advance decline line of the NYSE advance/decline line confirmed the highs made in December.  When market breadth confirms price, usually that suggests the final high has not been made.  It was also a good sign that there were 490 daily new highs on the NYSE on December 8, the most since May 2013.  These types of readings are more bullish than bearish and suggest higher prices going forward.  It’s also bullish that the Nasdaq Composite is now leading in relative strength vs the S&P 500, a condition which has historically overall characterized more profitable market climates.

Watch The Direction of Technology:

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its trend channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization. As of 01/10/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 10.87%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.53%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.47%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 4.98%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.75% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.19% totaling 39.79%.

All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election. The QQQ rose 7 straight sessions, closing at a new all-time high.  With its recent strength, it looks like the QQQ could break out from here, (red circle above).

The upside channel objective is 130.00 (top blue channel line).

For now, the trend is our friend, however later this year could be more challenging as the market is in the late stages of a bull market.  As long as the QQQ is above the retracement line from the break out of 112.00 in July 2016 (pink line), now acting as support, periodic declines most likely will be buying opportunities. A break below 112.00 would be considered bearish and suggest a more serious market decline.

Keep an eye on Apple, (AAPL) the largest holding of QQQ which has a favorable monthly MACD pattern turning up from an oversold condition, after breaking its downtrend in September 2016 (chart not shown).  This has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a measure of momentum.  MACD has broken its down trendline which is favorable; however MACD is not in its most ideal buying position as the turn up didn’t occur from an oversold condition below 0.  This pattern needs to be monitored to see if MACD continues to rise further making a new high picking up momentum, as did the weekly MACD on the Russell 2000 (IWM) from October 2016 – December 2016.

Summing Up:

The overall trend of the market remains optimistic even though the Dow Industrials has been unable to get through the key psychological 20,000 level.  Maybe earning season that begins 01/13/17 will be the fuel that is needed to get through the level.  Upside channel objectives have already been met on the Russell 2000 Small Cap (IWM) and the SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY).  So far the pullback has not jeopardized the bullish outlook.  In the meantime the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was up seven days in a row, reaching a new all-time high and has slightly penetrated its channel suggesting a possible breakout will occur.  Look for strength in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to lead the overall market higher. As long as the QQQ remains above the retracement line from the break out in July 2016 (pink line) above 112.00, intermittent declines most likely will be buying opportunities.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts January 13, 2017


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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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Kathy money_treeInvesting can be frustrating because sometimes the market is tricky, but it can also be so rewarding if you’re willing to stick with a plan that can drive you toward improving your investing success. Are you finding it more challenging to make money investing in the stock market and would like to experience more success? Would you like to be less stressed and confidently build more wealth? You don’t have to be a mathematical genius, a stock market guru, or have a degree in finance to be prosperous and make money investing. You can master the skills needed with some simple trading and money-making investing strategies that you can assist you in accumulating wealth.

Increase your odds of more successful investing today

Being profitable, takes discipline, a winning mindset, and managing your risk. Controlling loss is the secret to success and in being a profitable trader or investor. The key to growing wealth with investing is to control and manage risk so that you can achieve your investment goals. Do what is necessary not to let your emotions get in the way. Set realistic goals, be patient with yourself and create guidelines that are suitable for you and that are easy to follow. It’s the only way you’ll stay the course. Start now using investment practices to increase the odds for more victories when building and sustaining your wealth by using the insights listed below.

Simple Tips Toward Improving Your Investing Success

  • Develop a trading plan with a written set of guidelines that specifies when you will enter and exit a trade before you purchase any security so that you will not build losses.
  • Follow your plan. Don’t change your rules in the middle of a trade because this will most likely be the wrong decision.
  • Trust your intuition.
  • Find a trading style that what works for your stage in life that you are in so you are comfortable. Your risk tolerance is different than others.
  • Don’t make trading decisions based on emotions. Fear and greed will lead to bigger losses that will take longer to make back.
  • Don’t use money that is for day-to-day living expenses. This will lead to poor decisions, excess stress, and forcing trades at the wrong time that will not be profitable.
  • Use the internet. There are many sources with resource tools to help make your investing easier leading you to more success and profits.
  • Manage risk by protecting first. Set a stop loss to manage risk and protect your capital to avoid large losses. Don’t place too much money in any single investment in case something unexpected happens that could wipe out your investment portfolio.
  • Learn from your losses that occur so you will not make the same mistake twice and in turn this will help you be a more successful investor.

When working toward improving your investing success you must develop a lifestyle plan that has your money working for you and is also suited to meet your overall needs You can improve your lifestyle by investing wisely and taking the responsibility to control your destiny. While on your journey to wealth, you will find that you will constantly have make decisions and this may feel overwhelming but you must do your homework and Believe in YOU! When you become mindful you will find it easier to make decisions that accommodate your lifestyle and improve your financial well-being. You’re on the right track and have the power to create change in your investing success.

If you like this article then you will love these wealth tips. Download Here: https://bonniegortler.com/10-wealthtips/

I would love to hear from you. Contact me at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com.

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The stock market has quietly advanced during the first half of August. The daily price movements over the past 25 days in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq 100 have been extremely small, ranging from 0.28% – 0.43% as prices have moved higher. As long as this phenomenon continues of low day to day volatility, downside risk will be contained.

Tape action remains encouraging, many major indices have broken through resistance levels that were in place for over a year and have made new all-time highs. Market breadth has supported the advance with The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) advance-decline line also making a new high. A market top rarely happens at a final price high that is confirmed by the (NYSE) Advance-Decline Line.
The August through October period historically is not an ideal low risk environment to be invested in the stock market. During the third quarter of an election year, like now, the negative bias is not true.
Instead, it’s positive for the market.

Our models continue to suggest favorable market conditions, although not at the level where risk is
at its lowest. There are no blatant warning signs of a potential serious decline ahead; however there are a few small non-confirmations. I would like to see the transportation average confirm the Dow’s recent high and for the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index to outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) and make a new all-time high.

All in all, the tape remains favorable, the bulls remain in control and I believe the advance will continue.

What Are The Charts Saying?

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

081716 SPY WEEKLY

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 08/16/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.12%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.40%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.92% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.79%. Investing in the S&P 500 (SPY) gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke out of its trading channel beginning December 2014 after penetrating the 212-214.00 resistance on 07/11/16. Old resistance is now key support if a pullback would arise. It would be bullish if the S&P 500 (SPY) remains above this level, increasing the odds of the SPY reaching the upside target of 228.00, 5% higher. Another point of reference to watch is if the uptrend remains intact from the February lows. The green trendline in the chart shows that this uptrend remains intact. As long as 204.00 is not violated, the intermediate trend is up. Remember the trend is your friend.

On the other hand, if SPY breaks below 212.00 this would be an early warning that the intermediate trend is in process of changing, and risk increasing. If the uptrend is broken, the middle channel at 197.00 would act as the next support level.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum. MACD is on a buy, rising, above 0, and has confirmed the price high made in the S&P 500 (SPY). MACD needs to be monitored to see if and when it turns down.

This would be an advanced warning that momentum is weakening and that a potential change of trend could occur.

MACD is now somewhat extended, but no negative divergences exist and the uptrend remains in effect.

Therefore, no need to worry yet, continue to enjoy the ride.

Summing Up:

The stock market advance quietly continues. Our models remain favorable. Market breadth and price action is positive. The advance decline line has confirmed new highs in the S&P 500 (SPY) suggesting a final top most likely hasn’t been made.

Major market averages have broken through resistance to the upside after many attempts earlier in the year.

The uptrend from the February lows remains in-tact. The trend is our friend.

In the near term, unless the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below 212.00 for two days, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls for the S&P 500 (SPY) to continue higher toward the upside objective of 228.00.

I would love to hear from you. Please feel free to share your thoughts, comments or ask any question you might have. Call me at 1-516-829-6444 or send an email to bgortler@signalert.com.

If you like this article, then you will love this!  Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing tips to more wealth.

 

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts August 18, 2016

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Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical result and is not meant to represent the actual performance of any particular investment. Future results cannot be guaranteed. Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed either in any form that the above information is a statement of fact, of opinion, or the result of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments discussed above for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels.

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Welcome to my 7 day event highlighted on my blog, BonnieGortler.com!

The theme is – “To More Wealth and Well-Being”, where you will learn over the next 7 days how to make wealth and well-being yours now and forevermore.

Each day I will share ideas to improve your life, health, and finances.  At the end of the 7 days we will have a drawing for a $35 Amazon Gift Card.

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Explore, engage, and experience the awesome FREE-gifts and bonuses for you while you are visiting, and please make sure to like my Facebook page and share the wealth by inviting your friends, associates, and loved ones.

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To sweeten the offer, I am including a copy of my book Journey to Wealth: A Practical and Mindful Approach to Growing and Sustaining Your Financial Well-Being (a downloadable copy for an international winner). Grab chapter one via BGJourneyToWealth.com.

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By taking part, you will quickly discover how to end the struggle for building wealth and begin to create a life full of well-being without the stress. You’ll feel better and become more fulfilled like never before. I’ve put this promotion together so you will be encouraged and get excited in your heart and mind and realize that wealth and well-being is possible for you. I want you to be fully prepared by knowing the steps necessary to create the lifestyle you’ve dreamed about.

You have the power to create change – Invest in YOU!

Today’s Tip to More Wealth and Well-Being:
Day 1: 10 Simple Ways to Strengthen Your Money Mindset Now

follow up-change aheadWhat feelings arise when you think about wealth in general? Do you get excited or do you feel a sense of anxiety when it comes to thinking about where you are when it comes to your own wealth? I can’t express enough how important it is to experience good feelings when you think about wealth and its possibilities. Your thoughts, beliefs and attitudes determine your wealth potential. Wealth building is a mindset that begins with your attitude, and in order to achieve wealth success you will need to develop a strong mindset. The key in creating a solid attitude in this area is to remember that 90% is mindset, and the other 10% is strategy. Having great strategy helps you but a weak mindset will always stop your progress. You have the power to change your thinking and not stay in a place where you don’t want to be.

Wealth is more than just money. It includes a fitness plan for wealth that is made up of the mental, physical, emotional, and financial elements of you. Change your mindset to believe that wealth is yours right now and watch your change unfold right before your eyes. Growing your wealth starts with a positive mindset that will continue to grow so that all parts of you and your world will benefit.

 Listen here to the audio version of the article

When you think positive thoughts concerning money you attract money to you. An optimistic approach will prove more fruitful than continuing to allow money to flow away from you due to your negative thoughts. Changing your current belief surrounding money into a winning mindset starts with you. Decide now you are ready and take ownership of your finances. Make up your mind that that you are committed to making the necessary small changes in your thinking and beliefs that will create great results. You are the CEO (Chief Operating Officer) of your finances. Remarkable things happen when you combine the right focus and a positive mindset.

Start with a positive attitude and think about what you appreciate about money. Be optimistic instead of continuing to agree with all the negative money thoughts that might have held you down in the past. For example, when you were younger, did you always spend money and never save, so you think it’s impossible to save and you end up spending everything you make? Maybe you previously purchased a stock that you lost money on so you created a story in your mind that it’s impossible to grow wealth by investing. You will find it freeing to let go of all of the past stories that you have been telling yourself. They are most likely not true, and they don’t serve you in any positive way so why keep focusing on them. Change your thought process to having an attitude that is full of confident optimism by remembering the profitable and abundant times in your life. Reminding yourself often of such memories will help you develop the right money mindset. Believe, and you will discover that your journey to wealth is within reach!

10 Simple Ways to Strengthen Your Money Mindset Now

  1. Get clear about what wealth means you.   Know what your financial needs are for the lifestyle you desire.
  2. Learn some investing basics so you become and are an informed investor.
  3. Develop a plan of action that fits your needs to achieve your financial goals.
  4. Write down 3 realistic investment goals for you to achieve with specific dates. Have a mix of long term, (5 years or more) intermediate term (1 to 5 years), and short term (up to one year) financial goals.  If you would like some additional help contact me at bonnie@bonniegortler.com
  5. Break your larger goals into smaller ones. Focus on one goal at a time.
  6. Invest in you, your own personal development.
  7. Learn how to develop a stronger mental mindset so you will control your mind chatter.
  8. Develop good investing habits so your can have fewer mistakes leading you to making more profits consistently.
  9. Surround yourself with as many positive people you can. Avoid being around negativity as much as possible.
  10. Resist waiting 5, 10, or 20 years to start saving. Start with baby steps to save. Begin with an amount of money that you can put away towards your future. Start small. “Just do it”.

Strengthen your money mindset and learn to become more at ease with your finances. Begin now to develop a clear savings and investing plan. Create the change for your stage of life that will make the difference in your wealth. If you would like some help, know that I am here for you. Embrace the process, dream big and never give up! Even the smallest action steps add up and are enough to make a true difference in the life you dream about. It’s never too late to start.

I have a gift for you.

To help you get started on your journey to wealth to develop your financial plan with increased confidence I am sharing with you today a Free MP3 Audio Download titled: “Ensure Your Journey to Wealth“.  NOW is the time to stop putting off your financial well-being.  Start today! You can gain access by clicking here to receive it. Or simply copy and paste the following link into the address bar of your browser. https://bonniegortler.com/ensure-your-journey-to-wealth/

Let me know how some of the ideas I’ve shared with have resonated with you, and be sure to visit my blog or FB page to have your comments count for the drawing.

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Bonnie
The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

 

Schedule your Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session

 

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A new quarter, tax selling season is over, and the start of earning season has begun. What remains in investors’ minds is whether the market will move higher. Supporting the market is that historically April is a profitable month. Investors are rotating in and out of different sectors as the major averages have been consolidating near potential resistance areas the past few weeks. Out of favor sectors such as Materials (XLB), Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Oil (USO) have been attracting money. These sectors all have more room to the upside. If the breakout materializes as I suspect, money will move out of the defensive sectors such as utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) next.

During the advance from the February low, down days have been contained. The major averages such as Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have worked off their overbought condition. Favorable tape action, low volatility, and strong market breadth all are very encouraging signs that the major market averages will move higher and resistance will be broken to the upside.

The bulls remain in control climbing the wall of worry.Key Points 041516 S&F Newsletter

Tape Action Clues To Monitor For Further Gains Ahead:

The financial sector to continue rising. Watch for additional strength in KRE and XLF. The ultimate would be if financials would be stronger than the S&P 500 (SPY). XLF previously paused at resistance at 22.60 (03/3/16 newsletter). As of 04/13/16, XLF is 22.93, looking like it’s ready to bust through resistance and test its next objective at 24.50.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is close to resistance at 111.00. Further gains lie ahead if penetrated. A good sign will be if the QQQ will lead the advance higher, and be stronger than the S&P 500 (SPY). Watch the QQQ/SPY ratio.

Crude oil and the energy sector stocks are stable. Watch the United States Oil Fund (USO) and the energy sector (XLE). The XLE is showing strength lately after recently breaking the weekly downtrend from September 2014. USO closed on 04/13/16 at 10.53. Support is at 9.00 and resistance at 10.80 followed by 11.42.

The Transportation Average (IYT) takes out 145.85, its 03/2/16 peak, confirming the Dow Jones Industrials high (DIA) on 04/13/16.

Continued strength in midcaps. (MDY) Short-term support is 259.00. Resistance is at 269.00. If the MDY breaks through resistance, upside projections to 280.00 could be a reality. The MDY/SPY weekly ratio broke the down trend confirming an increase in upside momentum. (See my article in the April 1st Systems and Forecasts newsletter).

New 52 week lows on the New York Stock Exchange Index remain low, presently at 2. Risk is minimal as long as the new 52-week lows stay below 25.

Overseas markets rise further supporting the U.S. Keep an eye on Emerging Markets (EEM), China (FXI) and Europe (IEV) as benchmarks. All three ETFs made higher highs on 04/13/16 than the previous high on 03/30/16.

Volume has been unconvincing, remaining light. An increase in trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange would fuel gains.

High yield bonds keep rising. Use ETFs HYG or JNK as a benchmark.

The Value Line Geometric Composite, an unweighted average of roughly 1700 U.S. stocks closed higher than 03/31/16. More stocks are participating in the advance as the rally is gaining steam.

Small caps are generating investors’ attention showing signs of leadership compared to the S&P 500 (SPY). This is bullish! Keep an eye out for more strength in the small caps (IWM).

Watch the last hour of trading. If the major indices close near the highs of their daily range consistently this would be bullish.

What Are The Charts Saying?

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and 12-26 Week MACD (Bottom)

041216 Newsletter S&P 500

The top chart is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 04/12/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.41%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.40%, Exxon Mobil

Corporation (XOM), 1.95% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.68%.

In the 03/17/16 issue I raised the question of whether a breakout or top was forming. The S&P moved in a tight range the past month, working off its overbought condition staying within the trading channel (pink lines). The S&P 500 (SPY) broke
above 204.00, a shorter term resistance area getting the bulls interested again. The SPY appears ready to break the down trendline from July 2015 and challenge resistance at 212.00 – 214.00 now. If resistance is penetrated, 228.00 is an upside objective.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum, on a buy. Good news, the downtrend from May 2015 (purple line) has been broken, a bullish sign suggesting the SPY will get through overhead resistance sooner rather than later.

Summing Up: 

Sideways action appears to have ended. The stock market is gaining steam. A potential breakout to the upside is developing. Investors were excited when the S&P 500 (SPY) rose above 204.00. Our trading models remain in the most favorable condition. Watch for further clues by the market tape to give further confirmation that the S&P 500 (SPY) breaks out. A move above 208.00 followed by 212.00 and 214.00 will give an upside objective of 228.00. In case something
unforeseen happens, a break below 200.00 on the S&P 500 (SPY) would surprise me and change my optimistic bullish outlook for higher prices ahead.

I welcome you to call me with any comments, feedback or questions at 516.829.6444 or email bgortler@signalert.com.

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts April 14, 2016

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0317 S&P 500 Key PointsInvestors’ fears disappeared quickly when an appetite for bargain prices outweighed worrying about a potentially possible serious decline forthcoming. The stock market proceeded to rally broadly, very strong tape action with extraordinary breadth that has accompanied the rise which has not been seen for many years. If market breadth remains favorable (more net advances than declines consistently), then higher gains are likely. The S&P 500 (SPY) has gained 11% from its lows on 02/11/16.

The global markets also participated in the
advance. In particular, emerging markets are performing better. There has been an uptick in relative strength compared to the S&P 500, (EEM/SPY) after peaking 5 years ago. It’s still early to tell if this will be the time that another failure in strength takes place, which has been the case in the last few rally attempts, or if the emerging markets keep going, and potentially even lead the US market higher.

Investors have purchased securities that were very weak during the decline. Materials, financials, gold, silver, energy and international stocks have come alive, encouraging signs for further rise. Brazil (EWZ) is up 16%, (had been up 26%) Spain (EWP) Italy (EWI) and India (EWI) are all up over 9% in March. China (FXI), Emerging Markets (EEM), Russia (RSX), Germany (EWG) and Korea (EWY) are all up over 7% month to date (through 03/15/16).

Our models have steadily been improving, now positive (bullish), meaning most favorable, above-average profit potential with risk well below average.

The odds favor the U.S. market moving higher. However the advance might be ahead of itself and need more base building before they work their way higher. Also expect further sector rotation to be the focus in the next few weeks, with investors and institutions’ rebalancing their portfolios as the quarter comes to a close. The best type of market advance is the one that price makes higher highs and higher lows and price doesn’t give up much ground on declines, 1 or 2%, only minor pullbacks. A larger decline wouldn’t be encouraging. If overhead resistance is penetrated then a breakout to the upside would occur.

More time is needed to tell what the outcome will be.

The biggest concern to me is the technical damage that was done during the decline earlier in the year. Longer term monthly charts still remains front and center to my eyes with all the upside trend lines that were broken.

For example, Biotech, the Valueline Composite Geometric Average, and the weakening momentum warning of the S&P 500 QQQ/SPY ratio (see my article in the 02/18/16 newsletter) of the MACD of the RSI, all had disturbing trendline breaks.

Another question I keep asking now that the Dow and the S&P 500 (SPY) have had a slight penetration above their 200-day moving average is, will the bulls stay in control like they have the last few weeks, and the market break out to the upside, or will the bears will come out of hibernation and the rally will fail? Another important question “Was the latest rise from the February low a relief rally or something more?” Even with the all clear message from our models and the global markets participating in the advance, I am not totally convinced that the market is out of the woods yet. I would like to see the S&P 500 (SPY) fall no more than 2%, turn up and penetrate the overhead resistance for the charts to confirm the potential bullish outcome (see below) that could arise. If the market does fall further the S&P (SPY) needs to hold above 195.00.

What Are The Charts Saying?

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and 12-26 Week MACD (Bottom)

spyweekly macd 031616

The top chart is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 01/05/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.21%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.39%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.93% and General Electric (GE) 1.66%.

SPY was near its lower channel five weeks ago, successfully testing the August 24 and January 19th lows. The S&P 500 (SPY) recovered 11% moving through the middle channel with ease, and now could be ready to challenge the top of the channel. For the very short term, a break above 204.00 will get the bulls interested again and a break below 200.00 may bring out the sellers. A breakout would occur if the S&P 500 could get through the critical point of resistance between 212.00 and 214.00 giving a higher objective to 228.00. If the market stalls and turns down from here, then goes below the middle channel, this would not be a good sign. The fear is the pattern on the S&P 500 (SPY) might be a significant top formation spread over time that could have serious implications going forward. Potentially the lows would be tested and this time the decline could be worse, projecting down to 165.00. For now, the decline has been contained and I give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. I will be watching closely the action of the S&P 500 (SPY) in case the bear comes out of hiding and once again takes charge.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum. MACD, although on a buy, the downtrend from May 2015 remains in effect (orange line). A bullish sign would be if MACD keeps rising and the down trend is broken sooner rather than later, and goes above the November MACD highs. This would indicate that the SPY is gaining momentum and higher prices lie ahead.

In our 01/08/16 Systems and Forecasts newsletter when the market started to fall fast I raised the question, “Will the decline continue, or will the market turn up from here? “ I gave the following positive signs that could indicate the end of the decline.

  • Overseas markets start to rise. Keep an eye on Emerging Markets (EEM), China (FXI) and Europe (IEV) as benchmarks.
  • The Value Line Geometric Composite, an unweighted average of roughly 1700 U.S. stocks gains strength showing more broad participation than only a few stocks rising.
  • Firming action in Biotechnology (XBI) and the Financial Sector (XLF, KRE)
  • Apple starts to rise again (APPL).
  • High Yield Bonds stabilize. Use HYG or JNK as a benchmark.
  • Less intraday volatility. Watch to see if VIX moves lower and can get below 18.00.
  • Oil stabilizes and stops falling. Watch oil (USO) and the energy sector (XLE).
  • Small caps (IWM) stabilize, turn up and then gain in relative strength compared to the S&P 500 (SPY).
  • S&P 500 (SPY) moves above 195.00 and stays above.

All of the above criteria occurred and the stock market rose sharply. The S&P 500 (SPY) is overbought in the short term, not necessarily bearish. Now once again is another critical time for the market. The principles above are all viable guidelines to give further clues if the S&P 500 (SPY) will breakout to the upside or if a market top is forming.

Summing Up:

Our models are bullish, giving the all clear signal with above-average profit potential with risk well below average.

For the very short term, a break above 204.00 on the S&P 500 (SPY) will get the bulls interested again and a break below 200.00 may bring out the sellers. I recommend having an exit plan in case the bears come out of hiding and the S&P falls below 195.00. Watch to see if the S&P 500 (SPY) goes through resistance between 212.00 and 214.00, giving a higher objective to 228.00. The odds favor the bulls!

I welcome you to call to share your comments, feedback or questions at 516.829.6444 or email bgortler@signalert.com.

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts March 17, 2016

 

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The Fed’s action in December of increasing rates for the first time since June of 2006 added to an already challenging year for stocks in 2015.

The last few days of 2015 disappointed investors. After the stock market started to show some encouraging technical signs, a year-end rally did not materialize. Buyers quickly turned into sellers after major market indices failed to get through overhead resistance, the same pattern that had occurred numerous times during the year.

The Nasdaq Composite finished positive for the year gaining 5.7%, mostly from a few stocks; Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft, (MSFT) Google, (GOOGL) Facebook (FB), and Netflix (NFLX). The S&P 500 index didn’t fare as well, finishing down for the year -0.7% (excluding dividends).

In case you were wondering why it was so difficult to make money in 2015 I will share some research by Glenn Gortler, Director of Research at Signalert. Out of approximately 4100 stocks tracked in our database:

• 57% of stocks were down for the year.
• 44% of stocks were down more than 10% for the year, and
• 32% of stocks were down more than 20%.

Even though some of the major averages showed small losses, only a few stocks led the indexes higher. If this trend continues, it could be even more of a problem going forward.

In my experience, during the first week of January crazy things happen. Large swings up and down occur frequently, and this year is starting off no differently. The first trading session of the New Year started poorly, after China’s Shanghai Composite lost 7%, halting trading overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average followed China’s lead, down more than 250 points at the opening bell, falling over 400 points intraday, before recovering some of their losses.

As I am writing this article (on January 7th) the market is down for the fourth day in a row, with double digit losses intraday.

My favorite sectors to watch for the direction of the market are not acting well. Technology (QQQ) Biotechnology (XBI), Semiconductor (SMH), Transportation (IYT), Finance (XLF) and Small Caps (IWM) all remain under selling pressure, and are not showing any strength yet, indicating that the decline is not coming to an end. Investors have moved away from high risk sectors.

On a positive note, research taken back to 1950 (by Joon Choi, Senior Portfolio Manager) shows if the S&P 500 is down more than 1% but less than 2% on the first day of January, the rest of the month is up 1.6% on average. Another hopeful sign is that momentum oscillators on some averages are no longer extended short term, and stocks are displaying potential positive divergences if they could turn up from here. Many stocks are down more than 20% from their peaks, already creating favorable buying opportunities when the market quiets down and selling pressure subsides. Time will tell. It remains to be seen if the market can hold on and turn up from here.

What Are the Charts Saying?

0107 spu weekly use with labels

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly ETF With Channel (Top) and RSI14 (Bottom)

The top chart is the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF which is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. listed on national stock exchanges, including over 25 different industry groups.

As of 01/05/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 are Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.24%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.49%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.92% and General Electric (GE) 1.64%.

The SPY was near its top of its channel only 6 weeks ago. Each time the S&P 500 rallied, it was unable to break through resistance between 211.50 and 214.00. Failing to get through resistance, the S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back towards its up trendline from July of 2015 (orange line). The trendline was holding, but with today’s action (on 01/07/16) now it has been violated, and that’s not a good sign. The intermediate trend has changed to down. Also, the channel (the blue line), was penetrated at 195.00 and will act as short term resistance. The downside projection is towards the old lows, the bottom of the channel, at 180.00 (lower blue line).

The bottom half of the chart shows the Relative Strength Index, a measure of momentum developed by Welles Wilder. RSI is based on the ratio of upward price changes to downward price changes. In this case over the last 14 weeks RSI looked like it was going to rise and break through the down trend (pink line). This would have been a sign indicating that the SPY was gaining momentum, however with the decline it has turned down, signifying the S&P 500 (SPY) is losing momentum and potential lower prices lie ahead. The downtrend would have to be broken (pink line) for the bulls to regain control and the trend change from down to up.

The Big Question on all of our minds is: Will the decline continue, or will the market turn up from here? Positive Signs That Could Indicate the End of the Decline:

1. Overseas markets start to rise. Keep an eye on Emerging Markets (EEM), China (FXI) and Europe (IEV) as benchmarks.

2. The Value Line Geometric Composite, an unweighted average of roughly 1700 U.S. stocks gains strength showing more broad participation than only a few stocks rising.

3. Firming action in Biotechnology (XBI) and the Financial Sector (XLF, KRE)

4. Apple starts to rise again (APPL).

5. High Yield Bonds stabilize. Use HYG or JNK as a benchmark.

6. Less intraday volatility. Watch to see if VIX moves lower and can get below 18.00.

7. Oil stabilizes and stops falling. Watch oil (USO) and the energy sector (XLE)

8. Small caps (IWM) stabilize, turn up and then gain in relative strength compared to the S&P500 (SPY).

9. S&P 500 (SPY) moves above 195.00 and stays above.

Watch the last hour of trading if the market rallies or falls. If the market indices close near their highs of the day, it’s a good sign that this decline is short lived and better times are ahead. If the last hour of trading moves lower and prices settle near the lows of the day, then this decline could continue for a longer duration.

Summing Up:

2016 has started with a bang: an onslaught of selling pressure in both U.S. and global stocks that is still taking place as of this writing. The first month of January has historically had many roller-coaster rides. This year is no different. The tape is not acting well, to say the least, giving me the feeling that this decline could be more serious. The S&P 500 (SPY) weekly chart broke below support at 195.00, changing the intermediate trend from up to down. Daily volatility is increasing, ]not a good sign. The average daily movement in the S&P 500 (SPY) the past 25 days is now over 1% and rising. It looks like more selling to come. There is plenty of room to the downside towards the old lows, that coincides wth the bottom of the channel at 180.00 on the S&P 500 (SPY). Bottom fishing now without the market stabilizing could be dangerous. Be aware, there is a possibility the major trend has changed and a bear market has started.

If you have questions or comments on this article, please feel free to contact me at bgortler@signalert.com; phone: 1-516-829-6444.

Bonnie Gortler, Senior Portfolio Manager

 

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts January 8, 2015

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“When defeat comes, accept it as a signal that your plans are not sound, rebuild those plans, and set sail once more toward your coveted goal.” ~Napoleon Hill, Think and Grow Rich

By implementing your financial planning early you can begin the road to prosperity. Are you sometimes intimidated or overwhelmed by your thoughts about money? What would your life be like if you made a decision now to have no excuses and take responsibility for your financial future? This life of financial freedom can begin by simply creating an investment plan.

attitude wealthSome of you might say that you have made a plan but you don’t follow it consistently. If this is the case, you can solve this issue of inconsistently easily. You can make it happen having an accountability partner. An accountability partner is a person who coaches another person while ensuring the other person stays on track with their promise or commitment. Having an accountability partner can make a huge impact on you and allow you to reach your goals sooner than you ever imagined. With the help of an accountability partner, your journey of finding investment success is within reach. Take some time to organize your thoughts about what you would like help with. Be clear on your intentions and desires as you make the decision of committing to yourself. Dramatic change all at once is not necessary. Make small changes just as if you were changing your eating habits. You would do so one bite at a time. You will find that saving and investing doesn’t have to be a difficult process. Before you know it, saving and investing to accumulate wealth will be easier and become a natural part of your daily ritual. Below you’ll find my insightful tips to help you along the way.

BG’s Simple Changes To Improve Your Financial Future:

  • Create a written investment plan with clear objectives of goals to achieve. Have a mix of short, intermediate and long term goals ranging from a few months to 5, 10 and 20 years.
  • Know where your money is going. What are you spending each month? Write down what your monthly expenses are. Create a worksheet to keep track. Become aware of money spent on items that had no significance or that were not high priorities.
  • Don’t overspend. Hold firmly to a budget. See if you are earning more than what you are spending.
  • Set aside part of your pay each month automatically in an investment account. Even if it’s only a few dollars. You will most likely not miss the money but will be very thankful that you set the money aside.
  • Stick to your plan. Unexpected circumstances will happen but do your best to stay on course.
  • Develop an investment strategy that suits YOUR needs. This is your plan that works for YOU, not someone else’s plan.
  • Manage your risk. Make it a priority to prevent large losses on your investments. It is more important not to lose than it is to win. Slow and steady consistent growth is much better than a roller coaster ride up and down with your money.

Take responsibility of your financial future. Get clear, know your objective and create your plan. Simply changing behaviors, doing a little today, and doing it consistently over time will help ensure you to meet your investment goals. With a proper plan in place you will not only save money, but you will also be able to use money for the things you decide are important and that will give you pleasure in the future. Making small changes is possible to do without too much effort and the benefits are worth every step taken. Be accountable to you and find yourself a trusted accountability partner. You will be glad you did and will reap the benefits for years to come. You have the power, so use it! Spend less, save more, and invest wisely. The journey to wealth is within your reach.

Do you need an more information for achieving financial goals as you create your own journey to wealth? Create change now and Schedule Your Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session. Do so now by contacting me me at bonnie@bonnieGortler.com or filling out a quick form at http://BonnieGortler.com/contact.

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After many key market indices made lows in August, daily technical indicators moved into oversold position for the short term. Heavy selling by investors subsided in the first half of September. Investors were optimistic that the Fed would not raise rates this month, so a reflex rally occurred after the lows were made on 082415.

Instead of continued weakness, the market has been quite resilient after its sharp fall. A quick rally for a few days occurred, followed by a pullback that held well above the lows. This has triggered more buying, with many stocks trading near their lows of the year. Investors are still demonstrating a buy the dip mentality.

Even the latest rally doesn’t change the fact that the trend has changed from up to down, which means higher risk and more volatility going into the fourth quarter. It’s a good idea to take quicker profits, lower your profit expectations, and keep your stops close in case the market moves fast and goes against you. There is a good chance there will be a safer entry within a few weeks, a retest of the August 24 lows.

The intermediate and long term trend of the market has changed from positive to negative. The average intraday trading range of the S&P 500 (SPY) in the past 25 days has increased to 1.36%, much higher than 0.68% over the last 253 trading sessions. More volatility is expected to continue with investors unsure of what to expect in the next several months, as short term interest rates are due to move higher.

With the market breaking out of its 6 month range, short term risk has increased and it looks like the quiet low range days appear over. Our timing models remain unfavorable at this time.

What Do The Charts Say?

Ishares Russell 2000 ETF( IWM) Weekly Price (Top), and MACD (Bottom)

091715 iwm with macd
The top portion of the chart shows the weekly Ishares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) which is made of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion. When small caps are not leading the market higher, it’s normally not a good sign for a sustainable broad rally.

IWM peaked on June 22 at 129.10 about a month earlier than the S&P 500 (SPY). The IWM broke its uptrend like other averages after falling below 115.00, not quite reaching its lower channel objective of 102.50 at the 08/24/15 lows.

It appears the decline has stopped for now. IWM has rallied from its lows and is just below an important weekly downtrend line (the blue line), in position to either break the down trend or stall now in this area If the IWM were to rise from here breaking through 120.00, there is a possibility another rally attempt to 130.00, near the old highs could occur. If the market was to stall, and turn down breaking 112.50 a decline to the lower channel is possible.

Next support is at 105.00. A break below would mean a more significant decline is ahead. The jury is out.

The lower portion of the chart is the technical indicator MACD, (a momentum indicator). As the market moved sideways and then lower, momentum weakened. The trend remains down from December 2013
(green line) not in any position to be broken to the upside. Now momentum has stopped accelerating to the downside, which is a good sign. Also MACD has reset, falling below 0, generating an oversold condition from where meaningful rallies occur. A turn up from here would be positive.

Just To Sum Up:

The first half of September is positive, but September historically is a weak month. Daily volatility has increased leading to more opportunities ahead.

News today that the Federal Open Market Committee has delayed the rate hike could calm investors for the short term but will be the topic of discussion the next few months.

Our models are unfavorable along with the intermediate and longer term trend of the market. The jury is
out if there will be a retest of the August 24 lows which will be a safer entry than now.

I am recommending watching the Russell 2000 (IWM), to see if it breaks through 120.00 for the clue if the market will stall now or make another attempt toward the old highs. If the market stalls and turns down breaking 112.50 a decline to the lower channel is possible at 105.00. A break below 105.00 would mean a more significant decline is ahead. It’s not too late to review your portfolio and reduce your exposure.

Continued caution is advised.

I would love to hear from you! Please feel free to share your thoughts, ask your questions or comments.

Please call me at 1-844-829-6229 or email at bgortler@signalert.com.

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts September 18,  2015

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This is a hypothetical result and is not meant to represent the actual performance of any particular investment. Future results cannot be guaranteed.

Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed either in any form that the above information is a statement of fact, of opinion, or the result of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments discussed above for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels.