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Shifting Your Money MindsetHow much of a difference would a shift in your thinking help in making 2017 your best financial year? Would you be willing to make the change? Especially if you knew it would give you some peace of mind when it comes to your money situation. Would you be willing to do what it takes to improve your circumstances? Hopefully, you’ve answered yes. Please understand that though there are many choices there is one thing that will reap you the largest return and that is to… INVEST IN YOU!!

You can start your journey toward change by learning to separate fact from fiction and by taking responsibility for your actions as you move away from getting caught up with decisions based solely on your emotions. You need to be clear headed if you plan to actually seize the opportunities that unfold and you cannot do so if you are always in reaction mode. You must be proactive in making solid decisions based on real data not on what you ‘wish’ or ‘hope’ for. When you focus on positive thoughts you can also create goals that will inspire you to save and invest. Learn to open your mind and educate yourself by reading, asking questions, and then reading some more. Do your best to immerse yourself in understanding the areas in your life that continue to elude your grasp. Your full attention is required if you expect to master your weak spots. This is especially true when it comes to finances since so many mistakes I see people make are due to their lack of knowledge. Don’t worry, I don’t expect you to take on everything at once. You can start by reading articles from magazines, trade journals and newspapers. These sources are generally well researched and prove most helpful when you arrive at those big decisions that will impact your future.

Becoming a mathematical genius, a stock market guru, or acquiring a degree in finance is NOT necessary to become prosperous. Opportunity exists at every turn if you are prepared to take advantage of it. The journey to wealth begins with a winning mindset and an understanding that every smart decision will bring you even closer to your goals, dreams, and aspirations. When done just right this will also include those financial decisions. But you have to take the first step in changing the way you look at money and how money works within your life. If you have a mental state and belief system that supports the idea “there is not enough” then you will fully live and experience a life of scarcity. Really it’s that simple. You have to shift your money mindset if you want things to be different.

I truly believe more than anything that you can do whatever your mind sets out to do. A life free from financial worry can be yours. You just need to take action so you can create the best life possible for yourself and your family. Your future is up to you! Decide what you want, never give up, and begin now to believe in YOU no matter the circumstances. I certainly do! If you have questions or concerns regarding shifting your money mindset or any area of your finances, feel free to contact me directly at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com.

To your health, wealth and happiness,

Bonnie Gortler

The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

Visit here for your “Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session”

 

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Bonnie Financial from KathyAre you at peace or frustrated when you think about your day–to-day finances? Have you sat quietly and thought about how to set real change in motion when it comes to your wealth? Decide now that you will create change and make your finances a priority. Be a self-starter towards achieving your financial goals. Don’t wait for someone else, or say you will begin tomorrow. Make proper money management a top priority and watch how the positive results impact your bottom line.

To begin you must right write down your three biggest challenges in terms of your finances. Ask yourself why do you think they are not working? What changes can you make right now and do differently to improve your future earnings or place you in a better position for financial independence?  How can you change your mindset in order to make the needed changes that will keep you stress and worry free?

Changing your habits could involve forgoing some activity or habit that is costing you money but you keep doing even though there is no real benefit or satisfaction. It can anything but for now focus on finding a routine that you do and could just as easily do without. Yes, it’s possible for you to learn a new wealth building attitude, one that suits your needs, one that you will commit to, and one that pays out huge rewards by giving you a feeling of satisfaction and happiness.

You can also start by adjusting the thought patterns and by reevaluating the behaviors surrounding your relationship with money. If all your thoughts are negative, you’ll quickly discover that real change will be more of a challenge and improvement will escape your grasp every time. The only way to move into true prosperity is by thinking good thoughts followed with strategic action because both of these activities will give you a different perspective and will also become the foundation of belief so you understand in your heart that it’s possible for you to have the life you’ve always dreamed about.

“A positive mind finds a way it can be done;
a negative mind looks for all the ways it can’t be done”- Napoleon Hill

It also helps if you begin with the habit of incorporating a new daily behavior that will allow the positive thoughts to become automatic. By consciously forging a new healthy mindset you will develop rituals that will allow you to reach your goals. Decide now to create a plan of action that consists of action steps that move you closer to successfully impacting your finances. It’s never too late to start. Don’t put off your financial well-being. Your future self is depending on you!

Think about one realistic financial goal that is specific and measurable, and then write it down.  All habits can be changed. You can tweak as needed but you must set them in motion by taking action. Habits are learned responses. Once you make a new habit part of a daily routine, they become fully ingrained in what you do and will quickly begin to feel very natural to you. Adopting new ways of change adds to your wealth and will help you live the lifestyle you desire. You can use the additional tips below to help you as well.

Create A Positive Impact On Your Finances:

  • Money July blogDo less, not more. Remove one item that you do often and are not getting the results you desire. Do more of what is giving you the results that you desire.
  • Adopt a positive money mindset, that has an optimistic outlook that gives you the feeling of security and freedom of choice.
  • Develop rituals, routines that keep growing your knowledge and understanding. Do what you love to do, don’t procrastinate, instead take action and don’t wait until everything is perfect. (I’m still learning this principle)
  • Compose a written plan with your individual financial goals. Set goals for 3 months, 6 months, and a year. Pick one to start working on and make it a priority each day.
  • Start a ritual of tracking your finances each day. Watch where you are spending your money each month. When you are comfortable track your spending differentiating between “needs” and “wants” and then create a plan that prioritizes spending within your means.
  • If you need some assistance, find someone who can support and guide you that will keep you accountable to reach your goals.

Here is a worksheet to help you start to focus and have a simple shift when it comes to money.

What SIMPLE changes can you do right now to save?

1)_______________________________

2)_______________________________

3)_______________________________

What are your three MOST SIGNIFICANT financial goals?

1)_______________________________

2)_______________________________

3)_______________________________

What are 3 FINANCIAL GOALS you would like to ACHIEVE in the next 6 months?

1)___________________________________

2)___________________________________

3)___________________________________

If you could make any SIGNIFICANT changes in your finances TODAY to save money for your future, what would they be?

1)___________________________________

2)___________________________________

3)___________________________________

Set in motion your journey to wealth!

Start now and create your own simple money rituals that will have a positive impact on your finances.

I invite you to send an email and share your financial goal setting tips or your money mind shifts experiences to Bonnie@Bonniegortler.com or use the comments box below.

If you like this article, then you will love this!  Click Here: https://bonniegortler.com/10-wealthtips/ 

 

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Welcome to my 7 day event highlighted on my blog, BonnieGortler.com!

The theme is – “To More Wealth and Well-Being”, where you will learn over the next 7 days how to make wealth and well-being yours now and forevermore.

Each day I will share ideas to improve your life, health, and finances.  At the end of the 7 days we will have a drawing for a $35 Amazon Gift Card.

To participate, make sure to comment on my blog (http://BonnieGortler.com) or on my Facebook page (BonnieGortler.com: BG Enterprises) so your name will be entered into the drawing. (Remember, only one (1) comment per day per person is permitted).

Explore, engage, and experience the awesome FREE-gifts and bonuses for you while you are visiting, and please make sure to like my Facebook page and share the wealth by inviting your friends, associates, and loved ones.

It’s real easy for you to enter the drawing and apply the new ideas you will learn so you to have more wealth and well-being from the gifts and bonuses I will share with you each day.

To sweeten the offer, I am including a copy of my book Journey to Wealth: A Practical and Mindful Approach to Growing and Sustaining Your Financial Well-Being (a downloadable copy for an international winner). Grab chapter one via BGJourneyToWealth.com.

Now, you have no excuses. Join in the fun and break through the challenges that you might be experiencing and decide wealth and well-being is yours now!

By taking part, you will quickly discover how to end the struggle for building wealth and begin to create a life full of well-being without the stress. You’ll feel better and become more fulfilled like never before. I’ve put this promotion together so you will be encouraged and get excited in your heart and mind and realize that wealth and well-being is possible for you. I want you to be fully prepared by knowing the steps necessary to create the lifestyle you’ve dreamed about.

You have the power to create change – Invest in YOU!

Today’s Tip to More Wealth and Well-Being
Day 7: More Abundance and Wealth for Your Financial Future

Listen here to the audio version of the article.

Achieve The Goals You Desire – Believe In You 003- Bonnie-Aruba-sand-waterDo you find yourself making excuses and procrastinating about starting an investment plan for your financial future? Are you struggling to grow your wealth and sometimes intimidated or overwhelmed by what has to be done? Making good financial decisions is a skill that anyone can learn by deciding to commit to create change. There is no better time than now to develop a plan where you are in charge and can take responsibility for your financial future. You don’t have to make a dramatic change all at once so it’s hard or even a painful process. You can make small changes, one at a time and before you know it, you will be saving and investing in a natural manner that becomes easier and more rewarding each day.

Your financial goals change at different stages of life. You want to decide if you are investing for the short or long term.  There are periods in life when taking risks is warranted but other phases in life when it is best to be extremely careful with your finances. Everyone’s risk tolerance threshold varies depending on the different situations in life. Some of you are just beginning to build your wealth and still have your entire life ahead of you. Because you are just starting out you have more time ahead to replace capital if lost. A new investor starting out in life has different objectives than one who is now retired after working his or her whole life or living off of money they have saved; and therefore have a lower tolerance for risk because of the lack of time to recover should there be a loss.

Risk is the potential loss you can have on an investment. No matter what circumstance you are in, your risk tolerance needs to be established along with the appropriate investment strategy for your lifestyle, age that fit into the dreams you have for your future. Develop an investment plan that includes a mix of equities and bonds that you want in order to manage risk. Some investments are more uncertain than others. A simple and quick way to decide your portfolio mix of how much equity and bonds is by your age. The older you are the more bonds and less equity you want in your portfolio.   For example, if you are 30 years old then 30% bonds; and 70% equity would be your mix. If you are age 50, then a good investment mix would be 50% bonds and 50 % equity. (Note: future results cannot be guaranteed).

Investments that are too aggressive and keep you up at night are simply too stressful, and don’t align with your commitment to achieving wealth and well-being. Capital preservation is the key to your investments and growing your wealth. If you are losing sleep then these are not the correct investments for you. Consider altering your portfolio by making a small change at a time.  No need to change everything all at once. Decrease in phases to give yourself more peace of mind and less stress, so you can be more comfortable with your investment situation. In the long run, having investments that are quieter, (low volatility) as part of your portfolio will be the most consistent way for you to make the most money.

More Abundance and Wealth for Your Financial Future

  • Write down your short and long term goals and keep them by your side and look at them often.
  • Know where your money is going and what are you spending each month. Be mindful of not spending more than you earn.
  • Write down or create a worksheet on the computer what your monthly expenses are. Notice money spent on items that had no significance or that were not high priorities.
  • Have clear defined objectives. Create a written plan that has a mix of long term, (5 years or more) intermediate term (1 to 5 years) and short term (up to one year) personal financial goals. Financial planning early in life can begin leading you on the road to prosperity.
  • Start saving a few dollars at a time to begin accumulating wealth. Start small, a twenty dollar bill saved today will continue to grow for your future. You will be amazed how dollars turn into hundreds, then into thousands. It’s never too late to begin saving and investing.
  • Remember when investing that all trades will not make money. You will not be perfect. Learn how to let go of past mistakes. Learn to not let emotions rule your decisions. Stay focused, manage your thoughts and create good trading investment habits that will keep you on the right track.
  • Give yourself the gift of peace of mind by doing a little research before you invest. Be realistic with your expectations.
  • Track your investments that you invest in the stock market is a key to mastering your finances. Watch your portfolio daily, check on the price movement of your individual stocks or mutual funds.
  • Time is your friend when you are investing. Money will grow if you leave it to accumulate and don’t spend it.
  • Manage your risk! Protect your assets. Prevent large losses on your investments. Remember the best loss is the smallest loss. It is more important not to lose than it is to win.  Slow and steady consistent growth is much better than a roller coaster ride up and down with your investments.

With you making a commitment to a few simple changes carried out a little each day with consistency, you will, over time achieve your dreams and enjoy a bright financial future. A proper plan will not only save you money, but will also be enable you the flexibility to use your money on what gives you pleasure rather than only using it for meeting the basic needs that fill your life. Making even a small change is something that you can do without too much effort; when you do you will find the benefits are worth every step taken. Even the smallest action steps add up and are enough to make a true difference in your life. You have the power to turn things around. Learn to become accountable to you and take charge of your financial future so you can reap the benefits for years to come.

Your Journey to Wealth Is Within Reach!

I have a free offer for you.

Discover the Right Wealth Building Attitude with my book, Journey to Wealth: A Practical and Mindful Approach to Growing and Sustaining Financial Well-Being. You will have your own stock market toolbox to help manage your finances to be a more disciplined profitable investor.

Download my first chapter Click here: http://bgjourneytowealth.com/jtw-chp1offer/

I have a bonus for you. You are invited to schedule your inspired wealth and well-being Free 30 minute discovery session.

Click here to connect: https://bonniegortler.com/connect/. I am looking forward to a powerful session with you. You will have new clarity, a sense of tranquility about your next steps, and more confidence to create wealth and well-being so you can truly enjoy life again .

Be sure to visit my blog or FB page to have your comments count for the drawing. (I am drawing tomorrow).

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Bonnie
The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

 

Schedule your Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session


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A possible breakout to the upside in US equity averages failed once again in the past week. However, the S&P 500 has almost recovered from its recent losses with a potential key reversal day to the upside on 05/27/15. The technology sector, represented by PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index) is acting better. The semiconductors (see chart of SOXX below) are strong, showing leadership, already penetrating January’s high which is bullish for the technology sector and good for the overall health of the stock market.

SMH 052915 Newsletter

Power Shares QQQ Daily Price and Trend Channels (Top), and 12-26-9 Daily MACD (Bottom)

0527qqq dailyThe top part of the chart is the Power  Shares QQQ Trust; an exchange traded fund (ETF) based on the Nasdaq 100 Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. As of 5/26/15, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 14.61% and Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is the second largest holding at 7.40%. Both stocks peaked in late April, like the QQQ, but their present chart patterns appear favorable supporting higher prices for the QQQ. The top portion of the chart above shows how the QQQ has been unable to get through the top of the short term daily channel. Each time it was near, prices turned down. A closing price above for two days would be considered a breakout. Resistance now is at 112.50, with the uptrend since October 2014 (pink line) in effect. First support is at 107.50. A break below would suggest prices could quickly fall to the lower daily channel at 105.00 followed by 97.00. The lower portion of the daily QQQ chart is MACD, a momentum oscillator. When it is above 0 and rising, it indicates increasing momentum. There is also a slight upside break in the downtrend from March (Pink line) that has positive short term implications.

As long as QQQ is above 107.50, look for higher prices. Power Shares QQQ Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and RSI 14 (Bottom) 

052717 qqq weeklyThe top portion of the weekly QQQ chart (to the right) also shows how QQQ for the intermediate term has stopped rising when price is near or at the top of the channel. QQQ remains above its recent breakout to the upside (pink line). The top channel objective is 112.50, the same area of resistance as the daily chart. When the QQQ moves through the resistance level, the next objective is 124.00. The lower portion of the chart is the Relative Strength Index, (RSI 14), a momentum indicator developed by Welles Wilder. It would be bullish, confirming higher prices ahead if the downtrend is broken. It is now very close to breaking the trend line from July 2014. If broken, expect further strength that could be could be sharp and fast, potentially triggering any buy stops that investors could have in place. Watch the indicator to see how high the reading gets before it turns down. If the RSI could get to 70 or above it should buy more time for the bull market environment: A secondary test of the price highs in QQQ would most likely happen before a major top would be in place.

Monthly QQQ/SPY Ratio (Top) RSI of QQQ/SPY Ratio (Bottom) 

052715 qqqspyrel strengthThe top part of the chart is the monthly ratio QQQ/SPY ratio. A rising line means the Nasdaq 100 is stronger and if falling, the S&P 500 is stronger. With the line continuing to rise, this confirms the long term strength in the QQQ vs. the S&P, which normally bodes well for the stock market. The monthly ratio is at its highs and rising is additional evidence that the bull market in technology remains in effect. This bodes well for the QQQ to suggest that the QQQ will break through the top of the daily and weekly channel. The lower chart above is the RSI of the QQQ/SPY Ratio shows a favorable uptrend from early 2013 in effect. The RSI of the QQQ/SPY ratio is trading near its highs at 70.80. With the rally in technology since March, the small double top pattern that was forming has been negated, alleviating any sign of potential danger at this time.

Just To Sum Up: The market has been unable to have a significant breakout to the upside. The technology sector is close to breaking through the top of the short and intermediate term channels. Momentum patterns in the technology sector are favorable and could be the catalyst for an upside breakout. As long as QQQ is above 107.50, look for higher prices in the stock market. If QQQ penetrates 112.50 on a closing basis for two days it would be considered a breakout and the next leg of the advance could begin. I would love to hear from you! Any thoughts, questions comments, feedback; please call me at 1-844-829-6229 or email at bonniegortler@signalert.com

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The stock market reacted well with the S&P 500 (SPY) challenging the top of this year’s trading range after the May 2015 employment data was released, but prices failed to follow through to the upside, while still holding well above the March lows. My prediction is that prices will eventually break out from the trading range. Once the trading range is broken, the move will be in the direction of the break and most likely will be significant. Trading action is dull (I never like to sell a dull market short). The S&P 500 (SPY) 25 day average trading day range is 0.52%, and VIX (a measurement of fear) is at 13.00, a low reading.

Market tops take a long time to form. Money is rotating in and out of sectors with transports (IYT), utilities (XLU), and 20 Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) all out of favor and under pressure. Telecom (IYZ), real estate (IYR), and biotechnology sectors also have not been acting well as of late, losing their relative strength compared to S&P 500. The good news is many intermediate and longer term chart uptrends remain intact, which is bullish for the overall market. For now, our models are favorable, the global markets’ chart patterns show improved relative strength and continue to support the US market. Also the emerging markets (EEM) monthly chart looks extremely favorable, with a huge consolidation going back to 2011 suggesting plenty of opportunity for a substantial advance.

What Chart Is Key Now?–Weekly S&P 500 (SPY) and MACD (Bottom)

The top chart is the weekly S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, showing an uptrend from the lows in November 2012, except for one penetration in October 2014, which reversed very quickly to the upside. This year, SPY has moved higher, challenging the highs and then retreating from them.

dull market
A tight trading range of 7.4% from its high to low has formed. A low was made on 02/2/15 of 197.86, with a high on 04/27/15 of 212.48. Support in the SPY 500 (SPY) is 204 and resistance is 213. A close above or below these levels for 2 days would be considered significant with more follow through in that direction. Upside objectives are 220, followed by 230.00. Downside objectives 197.00 followed by 188.00. The bottom chart, MACD, (a momentum indicator) continues to show weakening momentum, as price has moved higher since 2014. This is a bit disturbing and needs to be watched, to see if it can break the downside trendline or if the momentum continues to fail. If the S&P 500 breaks to the upside and MACD confirms the breakout, this would be bullish for the intermediate term, negating the unfavorable declining pattern that has formed. The daily chart (not shown) is very close to breaking its momentum down trend from December 2014 if prices move higher now.

Just to Sum Up:

The trading range continues in the S&P 500 (SPY) while other sectors are weakening compared to the S&P 500. Sector and group rotation is going on as the market is quiet and dull with an occasional one day wonder. The prospect of higher interest rates in the upcoming months remains a concern for investors with the 10 year bond yields near their highs of 2015 that could cause further choppy action in U.S. equities and bears watching. The jury is still out on the next big move the S&P will make therefore following the market action of the S&P 500 (SPY) as a guide is the best. A break above 213 on the S&P 500 (SPY) would suggest higher prices going forward, while a break below 204.00 would suggest a market decline of more significance
could be under way.

With our models still favorable and the international markets strengthening and supporting our market I give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls and look for higher prices ahead potentially 220, followed by 230.00 on the S&P 500.

Just in case the market moves to the downside, it’s best not to leave your investments unattended in case momentum patterns weaken instead of strengthening as expect. Keeping a watchful eye and having a plan with an exit strategy in place will serve you better. If interest rates rise sharply quicker than expected, this could be the next catalyst to the next significant market decline instead of higher prices and a breakout to the upside.

I invite you to share your stock market insights, questions or comments by calling me at 1-844-829-6229 or Email me at bgortler@signalert.com.

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“Expect the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes.” Zig Ziglar

The stock market decline from early October seems like a distant memory with stock market indices such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ at or near their highs for the year. Since the October 15th low the S&P 500 has had virtually no pull back. Technical indicators which were oversold are now extended in the short term. Historically after a sharp decline, a test of the old lows occurs 3-6 weeks later. The market is now within this time period for a test to take place. At any time a small correction could happen and this would be a buying opportunity to take advantage of since we are in a favorable seasonal period.

Sector selection this year has been important for investors this year. Internationals, small caps, oil, gold, and silver have lagged. Technology, finance, real estate, and defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities have been leading the stock market higher. Small caps have been out of favor unable to be a catalyst to signal higher prices ahead like I thought could happen, even though the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) broke the daily down trend from June’s high through the September high.

Another laggard but popular area of the market this year is the internet sector, (FDN) which is weaker than the S&P 500, only up 4.6% for the year. I find it very useful to use this index as a guide for how much risk investors are willing to take and for the short term direction of the market.

What Do The Charts Say?

Social media, especially Twitter and Facebook, is a growing industry and happens to be a great passion of mine. Technology has improved quickly over the years expanding the experience of the user and increasing the popularity of these stocks. Investors have large profits in the sector although volatility and risk are high. Investing in one single stock has higher risk than having a more diversified portfolio of internet stocks, I recommend using the First Trust DJ Internet Index Fund ETF (FDN). As of November 10, 2014 the top holdings of the FDN consist of Information technology 72.18% and consumer discretionary 22.45% along with small portions in financials and health care. The largest holding is Facebook (FB) with 9.76%. Other top holdings are Amazon.com, (AMZN) 7.92%,eBay, (EBAY) 6.15%, The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN) 5.71% and Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) 5.69% totaling 35.23%.                                                                                           

First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) Weekly

111214 FDN weekly

In the top chart,to the right, the price of FDN is making lower highs from early January and a down trend is in effect. If price fails to make a higher high this would suggest any rally in the overall market could be suspect with traders not wanting to commit to invest in areas that are more speculative.

I also think instead of being the start of a broader rally into the end of the year with more sectors participating in the advance, the overall market could first have to test the recent lows. If the internet sector could break out to the upside over 64 this could be the catalyst to ignite the fourth quarter advance.

The bottom portion of the chart is MACD, a technical indicator which measures momentum. MACD is oversold, in a favorable position. It would be bullish to see prices turn up from here along with momentum to continue to turn up and break its downtrend.                                                                                    

Facebook, Inc. (FB) Weekly

I am concerned with the recent action in Facebook (FB).

111014 FB weeklh

Facebook is the largest holding in the internet index. Many investors have large holdings and profits in the stock.

The top portion of the chart shows FB is at a key area. FB made a new high on October 28th at 80.77, now 7.9% off of its high trading at 74.38. The weekly trend has been up since July 2013 but if prices don’t hold here, then the uptrend could be broken which would be negative for the sector and potentially the overall market.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD
which concerns me. A negative divergence has formed with price making a high but MACD is failing to confirm the high. So far the uptrend in momentum is intact but this could change quickly. Downside channel objective is 57.50. Investors who have large holdings might consider taking some profits off the table if the stock falls below 72.50.

If you still like the sector as a whole you could lighten up in Facebook and buy FDN instead.

Facebook, Inc. (FB) / SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Weekly Relative Strength

The chart to the right is the relative strength between Facebook and S&P 500 (FB/SPY). When the line is rising it means FB is stronger. When the line is falling, SPY is stronger. Notice the recent trendline break of the uptrend from July on the top portion and on the lower portion of the chart MACD is confirming weakness generating a sell.  Now is not the time to be overly invested in Facebook.

111014 fbrsi spy

Just to Sum Up

High risk speculative areas of the market  such as the internet sector are giving technical warning signals and could be  the next area where a significant decline could occur when investors decide it’s time to take profits. Keep an eye if internet stocks start to fall, diverging from the S&P 500 which is now leading in relative strength.

If you own individual stocks in this sector, it’s a good idea to have an exit strategy of where to sell. If FB falls below 72.50, this could be the start of overall weakness in the sector. With negative patterns developing on the intermediate and long term charts it’s time to lower the expectation of what gains could be from here in the internet sector. If you do want to stay invested in this sector, instead of risking the investment in one single stock, invest in the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) index, so you will have less risk but would still have exposure to the internet area. Keep in mind the stock market is now in the 3-6 week window where a short term decline could occur at any time.

I invite you to call me if you would like to review your investments at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at
bgortler@signalert.com.

cartoo13.png 7 habits of successfully peopleimage source: www.forum.srilankaequity.com,accessed 11/13/2014

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Invest a few moments in thinking. It will pay good interest.” ~Author Unknown

stock-market-cartoons-5-300x202The stock market continues its roller coaster ride. A broad sell-off occurred during the first half of October, but the market has come back with vengeance the second half of the month. The sharp decline happened after some of the key indices broke short term support levels, and some long term trend lines were violated generating extreme pessimism. The market responded with a huge reflex rally.

In the last newsletter September 17, 2014, I had identified some key areas of where the market needed to hold. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell from 201.82 to 181.92, 9.86%, not quite reaching the downside objective of 178.00. The XLE fell from 94.84 to 77.51 holding above the channel objective of 75, bottoming at 77.50. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) held its major support almost perfectly holding 90.00, trading at 90.24, its low for the decline. The recent advance has been much more than a rally back to old resistance levels. Many times with sharp declines there is a quick test of the lows followed by a safer entry 3-6 weeks later. This time prices rebounded sharply, making a V shaped formation with no test of the lows. With the severity of the decline the stock market got very oversold, and now has changed again to the market being in an overbought condition. Fear has disappeared despite the moves of more than one percent on a regular basis shrinking the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from 24.64 on October 13, 2014 to 15.00.

Where Do the Charts Stand Now?

Daily iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) IWM with its MACD

102814 iwm weely 3 linesSmall caps have been out of favor, under performing the S&P 500 this year, but could be the next catalyst to signal higher prices ahead. The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) peaked July 1, 2014, fell below its 200-day moving average, bottomed in August, and failed to take out the highs in September, giving a warning of potential market weakness ahead. IWM broke its short term trend when it fell below 111 from the secondary high of 117.80 on 09/03/14. The decline accelerated after penetrating 110.00, falling 12.11 % to its intraday low of103.54 on 10/ 15/14. On the reflex rally the IWM stalled at the resistance zone from 110-112 for a few days and then broke above the line closing at 114.35 on 10/28/14,just missing breaking the daily down trend from the peak made on 07/01/14 of 120.97. A break above this level would confirm higher prices ahead and would be considered short term bullish. If we could break 116, investors might be more willing to take on the risk.The lower part of the chart is the momentum indicator MACD. After peaking in July 2014 and then forming a secondary peak in September, MACD has now turned up from an oversold condition (below 0), now very close to breaking the down trend from the peaks in September and October. This would be bullish and be another confirmation of higher prices.

 

102914 iwm rs new machineChart 2 Weekly Relative Strength Russell 2000 and S&P 500 ETF with its MACD (IWM / SPY)

The top half of the chart  to the right is showing a change in leadership for the intermediate term between the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. A rising line means the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) is stronger. A falling line means the S&P 500 (SPY) is stronger. Small caps peaked early in 2014, they had a few unsuccessful rally attempts this year bu thave failed. A change has taken place. Notice the recent break inthe downtrend. This is suggesting that the iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) IWM could now outperform the S&P 500 and lead the market higher during the next advance. The lower chart is a MACD on the relative strength ratio IWM/SPY which is confirming the change in leadership which could very well be the next catalyst to the advance.

Just to Sum Up:

The bulls and bears battled during the month of October. First a decline, then there was a reflex rally that was stronger than expected, leaving the bulls in control. The quick sharp decline was a needed pullback that has created the potential to take advantage of financial opportunities, especially in the small cap sector that now has favorable chart patterns and favorable seasonality. Additional short-term volatility is expected and there is still a chance there could be a test of the recent lows later this year, but for now the market appears to be out of major danger of a real serious decline. Selling pressure has subsided, market breadth has improved, new lows have contracted, international markets have mostly stabilized and small caps are now leading in relative strength, all positive signs. The market has made it through the volatile months of September of October and now favorable seasonality is here. There is better value and less risk at this time to take positions in the small cap sector, the iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) IWM for some of the cash that you have or might have accumulated on the decline.

Let’s talk investments together, I invite you to call me at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at BGortler@signalert.com.

   

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The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘This time it’s different” ~John Templeton

 

101714 newsletter.inddThe stock market had a broad sell-off during the first half of October, the worst since 2011. There have been warning signals of a potential decline for months,but it is only now that the decline has become a reality. Seven of the past ten trading sessions through October 15, 2014 have seen moves greater than 1%. Along with this increase in actual volatility, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) showed increased fear by more than doubling, going from 11.52, its lowest reading this on September 19, 2014, to a high of 24.64 on October 13, 2014. If investors and traders get more nervous, the odds favor even more wide daily swings to continue, probably through the balance of year. Stock market internals are getting worse, numerous divergences have formed, market breadth is poor, and new lows have increased sharply into the decline on heavier volume traded on the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange. Momentum patterns in many sectors are rolling over from extreme levels on intermediate and longer term charts. Key support levels that I have mentioned in the newsletter have all been violated, 190.00 on the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), 107.50 on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and 94.90 on the PowerShares QQQ Trust. The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq Composite is now trading below its 200 day MA for the first time since 2012. With the recent sell-off, the market is now oversold, and a reflex rally could occur at any time. The most likely scenario is a rally back to resistance, or slightly higher. However, the appearance of intermediate and longer term charts suggests to me that the decline is not complete. Normally after the first thrust to the downside of a sharp decline, another test of the lows takes place over the next several weeks which is a safer entry.

Where Do the Charts Stand Now?

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) had been a very strong sector, leading the stock market higher during the first half of 2014, but reversed sharply to the downside. On the way down, energy has been one the weakest sectors. XLE is a great example of why it is sometimes important to wait until the market actually finds a bottom and then turns up before bottom fishing. XLE tried to rally in July but failed to generate any real upside momentum and reversed down, making a new low each week. With this type of reversal, waiting to buy is better than getting stuck in a nasty decline.

Prices rose steadily from June 2013 with normal pullbacks along the way, a low of 54.26 peaking at 101.52 on June 23, 2014. From the peak, prices have fallen over 20% with  not much of a bounce taking place. The uptrend was broken to the downside in September 2014. Price stopped rising for a few weeks had a quick rally but then a failure took place, forming a double top. A more serious decline followed. On the lower portion of the chart notice MACD rolled over in July and went accelerated down. The MACD oscillator, the lower chart is not quite in position for a safe entry. There are no double bottom formations or turn ups in place, but MACD has fallen below 0 which is a plus. More time and patience is required for a safer buy to occur. If the XLE could hold the channel objective 75 level this could support the US Equity market from continuing its decline.

Chart 1: Weekly Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and its MACD

Chart 1: Weekly Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and its MACD

With the market selling off, is this a safe buying opportunity? Is the recent decline going to stop or will price continue lower? It looks to me like the S&P decline has further to go to the downside. The weekly price uptrend has been violated, now suggesting that the intermediate trend is down joining the long term trend. The channel downside objective is 178.00. Price could rally to where the market broke down from. If this is the case the SPY will have trouble getting through 195. Notice how the MACD oscillator is accelerating lower, weakening momentum with a negative divergence. There is no double bottom or turn up in place to suggest that now is a safe entry for a major bottom.

Chart 2: Weekly S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and its MACD

 

Chart 2: Weekly S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and its MACD

 The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF  (QQQ) has also been under selling pressure, breaking down through support levels and with MACD accelerating lower. QQQ traded near 100 but stalled after several times to make a further high in price. Price didn’t hold 94.00 where a bounce should have occurred. As of this writing the QQQ is now at 91.34 below where they traded in June 2014. If the decline continues from here the next support is 90, followed by 87.

Chart 3: Daily The Power Shares QQQ Trust Daily (QQQ)

               Chart 3: Daily The PowerShares QQQ Trust Daily (QQQ)

 The decline that has occurred has been with Apple (AAPL) holding firm. If further selling were to take place in Apple (AAPL) this would put additional pressure on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) which has a 13.00% holding. A break below 92.50 on Apple would suggest further weakness for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and would give a further warning signal that this decline could be more serious.

Just To Sum Up: The stock market has been under heavy selling pressure in October with wild intraday swings that have increased volatility and risk. The bulls and bears are in battle. It’s a bearish sign when, during the last hour of trading, prices stop rising; the traders are selling their investments into the close. Market breadth has deteriorated, numerous divergences can be seen on charts and many stocks are at new lows. The intermediate and longer term charts are rolling over from a topping formation, not in favorable buying position at this time and need some time before a safer buy could occur. Prices have had a sharp decline generating an oversold condition from where a reflex rally can occur at any time but it could also be a trap with more selling to take place. A safer buying opportunity is more likely to occur later on in the year. Favorable bullish months of November through January are just around the corner. Review your portfolio and reduce your holding with incremental changes that make you comfortable and allow you to sleep at night. I recommend that you focus on preservation of your capital. More short-term volatility and risk is expected.

If you would like to review your investments I invite you to call me at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at bgortler@signalert.com.  

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“Expect the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes.” ~Zig  Ziglar

 

Key-points1-alertHow quickly the market changes its character. The S&P 500 finished September down after making a new all-time high a few weeks ago on Sept. 18, 2014. The market tape action is getting worse. The anticipated rise in volatility during September kicked in, the Volatility Index (VIX), a . measurement of fear, increased over 40% from 11.52, its lowest reading on September 19 to a high of 16.43 at the end of the month. Momentum continues to deteriorate, warning signals are being given, and the odds are increasing that a further decline could continue in October. Small caps continue to under perform. Junk bonds have joined the decline, falling over 2% from their highs. International markets are under pressure especially the more volatile emerging market area. China, Russia and Latin America fell sharply and lost relative strength to the US market. Europe was a big disappointment; its rally very short lived. I was optimistic about the iShares S&P Europe 350 ETF (IEV) in the August 29th newsletter but price fell below 45.00, the key support, indicating a failure has taken place. This breakdown implies more negative repercussions going forward. The stock market charts are not appealing.

Chart 1: Weekly S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and its MACD

spy weekly 903014

The chart to the right shows the intermediate weekly uptrend of the S&P 500 weekly uptrend of the S&P 500 (SPY) barely intact from October 2013.Notice how each of the declines that we have had have held this key trend line. The S&P 500 is trading at 193.91 at the time of this writing, a few percent above the 50 week Moving Average which lies at188.39 and rising each week. With the daily trendline already broken, and price below its50 day moving average, staying above this level is important. If the weekly trendline is broken, with the increasing volatility market there is a possibility of even wider daily swings to happen more frequently. The channel line (parallel) gives an objective to 169.00 if the decline continues.

The lower part of the chart is the weekly MACD, a momentum indicator that continues to show less momentum on each rally and a negative divergence, a new high in price but not in MACD. Negative divergences have occurred periodically along the advance, but so far a significant decline of 10% has not materialized. This time might be different.Weekly MACD is not oversold enough to be considered in a favorable position where intermediate advances occur. More time is needed for a more favorable pattern to develop.

The international sector, especially the emerging market area, has been under more pressure than the US market. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM) rally from late March to early September has reversed, giving up much of its gains after losing 7.77% in September. October is starting off better.

The largest countries represented in EEM (as of  September 30 2014) were in China

Chart 2 Weekly iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index ETF (EEM)

The largest countries represented in EEM as of September 30 2014 were in China 17.74%,

        eemweek channel use

South Korea 15.29%,   Taiwan 12.91%, and Brazil 9.63%. Latin America was hit the hardest losing19.09% in September, but all countries were weak with losses over 5%.

The top portion of the chart to the right shows EEM weekly. The breakout failed to hold the first channel support at 42, the retracement line of the breakout. The next lower objective is 40.00 where a pause in the decline could temporarily take place in the short term, but I don’t think this level will hold. With the lower portion MACD extended and generating a clear sell signal there is a good chance of a further pullback to 36.00. If The EEM rallies to penetrate 42.50 this would nullify the downside objective.          

ALERT –THE MONTHLY RSI UP TRENDLINE FOR THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE HAS BEEN BROKEN

Chart 3 Monthly Nasdaq Composite

      100114 nasdaq monthly

In the September 12 newsletter I wrote The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Long Term Trend Remain Up. This is no longer the case. The lower part of the chart to the right shows that the 14 month RSI of the Nasdaq Composite from 2008 has been violated to the downside. This is giving a major warning sign that price will follow and this decline could be more serious than what we have had. Time will tell.

Just To Sum Up:

For the past few months I have given in the newsletter these key support levels to monitor. We are approaching them quickly; 190.00 on The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and 94.90 on the PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ). The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) closed at 107.91 and made an intra-day low on October 1, a hair above the key 107.50 support level.

The S&P 500 is very close to breaking its weekly uptrendline in terms of price but so far it’s intact. Longer term monthly RSI charts which were holding their RSI uptrendline have now broken below, giving a warning. New lows on the New York Index are expanding, now over 250, a danger zone. The bulls appear to no longer be in control.

Now is a good time to review your portfolio, keep a more active eye on the market, and be cautious. Even with the market being oversold on the short term it looks like it’s too early for this to be a safe buying opportunity to step in. This could be the time where the S&P will break support and more aggressive selling will take place. The most positive point I can make is we are entering a more favorable seasonal period historically, where the mid-term presidential cycle is favorable and market risk has been contained with significant price gains in the past. The bulls and bears will be in battle. I am recommending you to protect your investments: focus on preservation of your capital just in case this is the decline where the S&P falls more than 10% which it hasn’t happened in over four years.

If you need some assistance with your investments I invite you to call me at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at BGortler@Signalert.com

bull bear photo newsletterSource: http://www.pritchettcartoons.com/aging-bull.htm, accessed 10/3/2014

 

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“The investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth.”

~Warren Buffett

In the July 18th newsletter I wrote an article “The stock market is more vulnerable now more than any time this year”. Since then the stock market rose for a few days, failing to generate any kind of upside momentum. The market then turned lower but did not break below key support areas. Once again the buyers stepped in and the selling stopped. The pulse of each rally this year has been losing momentum for quite some time now and eventually a larger market correction will occur. The market appears to be in the process of taking a rest like I did. (I recently returned from a 3 week vacation in Aruba.) The market has recovered some, but so far it’s not convincing enough for me to believe this rally will continue for much longer. The position of many of the technical indicators doesn’t appear quite right. It’s still an unfavorable seasonal period for the stock market, caution is warranted and preservation of capital is good to have in the forefront of your mind.

Insights and Chart Observations Where We Are Now

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) peaked on July 24th, while the weaker Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) peaked on July 1, 2014.

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit the upper channel on the monthly chart in July, not able to make a new milestone.

Chart 1:   SPDR S&P 500 ETF  Trust (SPY) Daily

081217SPYDAILY

On the recent sell off the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell to 190.55 breaking the daily uptrend from February 2014, changing the short term trend from up to down. Price bounced up alleviating the oversold condition but I remain suspicious of the recent rally. As of this writing, price has been unable to reach and penetrate the 195-197 area, the old support area is now acting as resistance. (Chart 1). A break below 190.00 would suggest a decline likely to 184.00 (the short term channel objective). MACD, a momentum indicator is below 0 in oversold position but no favorable pattern has developed that suggest prices should rise.

Chart 1 (right): SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Daily

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) monthly chart (not shown) remains in an uptrend from 2009 in terms of price but MACD is pointing down and is very close to breaking its up-trendline. The trend in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) monthly RSI is also very close to being broken to the downside. Depending on how you scale the chart there is a very slight penetration of the up-trend line in RSI from 2009. I will be watching this closely and will post the chart when broken.

The small cap index Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has not been a profitable area to invest in this year. On several occasions this year I was hoping small caps would lead the market higher, but so far this is not the case. Small caps continue to lag the S&P 500, not a sign of a healthy market. Technical indicators such as MACD and RSI on the daily chart are oversold and in favorable position for a rally (chart not shown). There has been no sign of change of leadership to suggest that small caps will improve in relative strength and lead this market higher.

I believe the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is more significant at this time. Notice how RSI failed to reach 70 or higher to signify strength when price peaked at 120.97. Price fell 9.2% from its high (July 1) to a low of 109.86 on August 1, 2014, breaking below the old support area at 112.50 but prices stabilized and did not drop much further. Instead prices have rebounded finding support at the weekly middle channel, in the 109 area, (Chart 2) now off of its lows trading at 113.25.

Weekly MACD has flattened and RSI has turned up, good signs, but both indicators did  not reached true oversold areas from which the most promising buy signals originate: MACD below 0 and RSI below 30. If last week’s low of 109.86 is violated and prices drop below 107.50, (I’m giving some extra room in case of an overshoot) I would then expect a more serious decline to develop. Prices could fall to the first support between 102-105 and if the decline is more serious this area will not hold and price could go down to the channel objective of 95.00 approximately 15% lower.

Chart 2 : The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) Weekly Chart

081214 IWM USE CHANNEL

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) forms a negative divergence with its MACD

Another area to be monitored which I haven’t mentioned in months is the Nasdaq 100 Powershares QQQ Trust (Chart 3), a profitable area to be invested in this year that continues to be resilient. The weekly uptrend remains in effect from November 2012. Price continues to make highs but with MACD weakening, failing to confirm the high. This is a huge negative divergence formed over several months, a long enough period to make this seem significant.

081414 QQQ USE

Chart 3: Weekly PowerShares QQQ Trust (top) and the Relative Strength Between SPY and QQQ 

The lower chart is the relative strength ratio SPY/QQQ which I feel is noteworthy at this time. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is weaker than the Powershares QQQ.

I believe when this weekly relationship changes to the S&P 500 being stronger than the Nasdaq, a larger market correction will occur. The daily chart (not shown) also has divergences in the MACD and RSI which is disturbing. Be aware of a potential change in trend which could start if the Powershares QQQ breaks below 94.90, followed by 92.50 which correspond to the uptrend line in price on Chart 3.

Chart 3: Weekly PowerShares QQQ Trust (top) and the relative strength between SPY and QQQQ (bottom)

Just to Sum Up:

The market has recovered from its recent lows; selling pressure has subsided with the buy on market weakness mentality continuing. A key change in the market is that the daily trend is no longer in an uptrend which was supporting the market for many months. Technical indicators are not in the most favorable position with price below key moving averages on some market indices, and MACDs on longer term charts still looking problematic.

Small Caps continue to underperform. The market has stabilized for now but beware of the increasing possibility of more weakness ahead. If this latest rally fails and support levels are broken to the downside, especially on high volume, a more significant correction could occur. Key numbers to monitor if broken are 190.00 on The S&P 500 ETF (SPY), 107.50 on the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and 94.90 on the PowerShares QQQ Trust, (ETF) QQQ. Be the one who is prepared by having an exit strategy ready for a larger market correction in case the bears take control over the market with buying turning into selling.

If you need some assistance with your investments I invite you to call me at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at bgortler@signalert.com

 

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where I am the Guest Editor http://bit.ly/1fM79hp

 

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