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No one really knows if the old adage sell and go away in May will hold true for 2017. What is known is May has begun quietly as the S&P 500 remains in a narrow trading range on less than inspiring momentum. However, the present tape action is a far cry from bear market action.

The technology sector continues to soar to new highs. In the 02/16/17/ Issue of Systems and Forecasts I brought attention to the possibility of another leg up for Technology, revisiting the article on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout. This indeed has occurred. The QQQ original objective was 130.00, followed by 139.00.  On 05/09/17 the QQQ made an intra-day high of 138.93, meeting the upside objective.

 

The Tape Remains Mostly Bullish


PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index)
Weekly Price and Trend Channels
(Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  The top holdings are Apple, (AAPL), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Facebook, (FB) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) and all have been climbing.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), led by Apple is red-hot and looks as if there is more room to the upside.  In the latest issue, I pointed out it’s necessary to watch and see if MACD made a higher high or if MACD turns down. Notice the lower chart.  MACD made a new high confirming the high made by QQQ. This confirmation suggests the odds favor an extension of the rise and has bullish implications going forward over the next several weeks to months.  Any weakness now should be contained and only be temporary before another rally attempt would occur.

If the QQQ falls below support at 129.00, just under where the QQQ consolidated early this year, much more caution is necessary.


In Sum:

The QQQ intermediate uptrend remains in effect (orange line). The upside target for the QQQ is 157.00.  The breakout is in process. Time is now on the side of the bulls.


Apple Charges Ahead Leading the Technology Sector Higher

The top half is a price chart showing the weekly high-low-close of Apple since April 2014.  Apple was out of favor in 2015, until June 2016 when investors selling turned into buying.  A clear uptrend is in effect (black line). As long as Apple is above the trend line, the intermediate trend is up.

Apple has had explosive momentum in 2017, going from 117.91 to 154.08, a gain of 30.68 %. Notice how Apple this week has penetrated the upper channel. This is a bullish breakout giving a new channel upside objective to 175.00 (orange line).  A test of the breakout could occur in the near term, amounting to only 2.00% – 3.00%.  However the recent thrust suggests the advance will continue and declines would be very minor.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD has confirmed the Apple’s price high (green circle) similar to the QQQ.  A solid uptrend remains intact.


Summing Up:

Our equity models remain overall neutral–bullish, a potentially favorable market climate, although there has been an increase in risk. Technology stocks remain the leader supporting the overall market.  MACD on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and Apple (AAPL) has confirmed the recent price highs. The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq (QQQ) and Apple (AAPL) are solidly intact.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has an upside target of 157.00 and Apple has an upside target to 175.00.  This could be the year where you don’t want to go away and sell in May.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! Free Instant Access to Grow Your Wealth and Well-Being E-Book HERE

 

*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts May 11, 2017

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The short-term decline in April has ended.  The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all successfully tested key support levels this past week.  The recent news of possible tax cuts sooner rather than later, an optimistic perceived outcome to the election in Europe, and a good start to the earning season has spurred a potential new leg of the advance.   Overhead resistance on some indices exists.   However, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has made a new high, has broken through resistance giving new upside projections, which could carry the overall market higher for the next several months.   More time is needed to know if other averages will follow suit or if the present rally will fizzle.   However my prediction is there is more room to the upside.

Technology leads the way.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  As of 04/24/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.84%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.20%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.80%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.38%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.70%, and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), 4.10% totaling 41.02%

The QQQ has been rock solid this year, leading in relative strength vs. the S&P 500, and up almost twice the gains of the S&P 500.  The QQQ has slightly penetrated the middle channel after a 9-week consolidation, where the QQQ traded between 129.38 and 134.00 (the red circle), now trading at 135.14.  The bullish outcome is not a surprise.  (See my article in the 03/15/17 Systems and Forecasts: Weekly MACD confirms the advance: Higher prices anticipated).  The next upside target is 157.00, a 16.2% gain from present levels. The intermediate trend remains up as long as the QQQ remains above the up trendline line (orange).

Because the initial upside thrust since the election was so strong, the expectation the first decline wouldn’t be significant is exactly what has occurred.  The present breakout needs to be watched closer.  Keep an eye on how Apple (AAPL) performs, the largest holding of QQQ.  If the Nasdaq continues to show leadership, making new highs, then it could support the market and help the technology sector over the next several months.  

On the other hand, if the QQQ falls below 129.00, retracing its recent gains, a warning sign of a potential change of trend would be given.  If the QQQ falls below 125.00 breaking the uptrend, (orange line) more caution would be warranted with possibly a larger correction on the horizon than the decline in April.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9), a measure of momentum.  It was a bullish MACD pattern that confirmed the price high made in QQQ in February 2017, before the recent consolidation.  The uptrend remains in effect (pink-line).  The QQQ has made a new high.  If MACD turns down failing to make a new high, a negative divergence would occur.  Over the next several weeks watch to see if MACD makes a higher high.  This would be bullish.  If MACD turns down, this would complete the negative divergence pattern and would be considered bearish. 

Summing Up:

Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term which means upside potential remains greater than downside risk.  Technology stocks continue to lead the market higher.  After many weeks of consolidation and weakening momentum, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has broken through resistance giving new upside projections to 157.00 which could carry the overall market higher for the next several months.  The advance seems to be broadening.  Market breadth is improving, financials and small caps have come to life again gaining in relative strength. These are all signs of a healthy market.  The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq (QQQ) price and in MACD is intact.  If the uptrend is broken on either price or MACD more caution will be necessary, as the odds would increase the advance will fizzle and no longer sizzle. For now, the bulls remain in control, continue to enjoy the ride. 

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts April 27, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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U.S. stocks were quiet early in March as the major averages traded in narrow ranges closing at the end of the day near their highs. This phenomenon changed as the month moved on. Buyers turned to sellers. The S&P 500 was down more than 1% in a single day, which didn’t happen for 5 months previously.  The Financial sector and Small Cap sector that led the market higher weakened. Technical momentum oscillators were extended, showing loss of momentum, ripe for a short term pullback.  The short term trend changed from up to down (based on charting methods).

What ETF to Watch To Guide You for Direction?

 

SPDR S&P Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) Daily Price (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Financial Sector SPDR (XLF), an exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks a mix of diversified financial service firms, insurance, banks, capital markets, consumer finance and thrift companies. As of 03/28/17 the top holdings of XLF are: Berkshire Hathaway B, (BRK.b) 10.97%, JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM) 10.86%, Wells Fargo & Co (WFC) 8.65%, Bank of America Corp (BAC) 8.08, and Citigroup Inc. (C), 5.65%.   Historically it’s a sign of a healthy market when financial stocks are strong, showing signs there is economic growth.  The S&P 500 (SPY) also tends to do well because the S&P 500 index has 16.48% of its holdings in the financial sector, only the technology sector is higher at (19.25 % through 02/27/17.

Investors shifted assets to financial stocks after the election. The XLF peaked at 25.29 on 03/02/17.  A pullback followed a few weeks later, breaking its short term trend up trend on 03/17/17, two days before the S&P 500 (SPY) broke their daily trend line.   Notice how the XLF retraced all of its 2017 gains, stopping above a key support area (green rectangle), at 22.97, holding above the December 2016 low at 22.84.

Many times once an uptrend is broken after a test of an important support area, another rally attempt will occur. This looks like what is happening now.  The XLF just penetrated its down trend, a positive sign for a short term rally to begin.  If the decline is over, the XLF should challenge its down trend line from the peak, around 24.50, (green line).  If the XLF stalls and turns lower, then look for another test of the support area. A break below would be considered bearish. A break above 24.50 would suggest another attempt at the March highs.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is now oversold, below 0, and has a favorable pattern forming.  If the XLF rises for a few days in a row a buy will be generated.  Keep an eye out for the downtrend in MACD to be broken. This would confirm the short term decline is over and further gains are ahead.

  

 

SPDR S&P Financial Select SPDR ETF Weekly Price (Top), and MACD 19-26-9 (Bottom)

The top portion shows the weekly SPDR S&P Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) active trading channel (purple lines). The XLF had a huge advance, breaking through its upper channel.   However, a false breakout materialized, the XLF couldn’t sustain its rise and the XLF declined by 9.2%, holding above its weekly low made in December 2016 (red circle).  The intermediate trend is up. The uptrend remains intact.

A break below the recent low at 22.97 would increase the odds of a further decline that would potentially break the uptrend, and would shift the intermediate trend from up to down.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD has just given a sell.  But I am not worried about this MACD sell because it was not accompanied by a negative divergence. Moreover MACD did make a new peak to confirm the price high and its uptrend is intact.  Usually when you have a powerful thrust as XLF did, another rally attempt occurs after the first decline.  As long as the uptrend is in effect the odds favor the bulls. If the downtrend is broken (black line) a warning sign would be given and the bears most likely would come out of hiding.

In Sum:

Our equity models remain overall neutral-positive, implying further gains are likely for the intermediate term (weeks–months). Look for wider intraday swings, as the historically favorable seasonal period will be ending in April.  Financials have lost some of the luster they had early in the year but resurgence could begin soon.  The recent decline appears to be over if the recent low at 22.97 holds.  As long as the uptrends remain intact for the intermediate term (weekly chart) in terms of price and MACD, give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.  Time will tell.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.


If you like this article, then you will love this!
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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts March 30, 2017

 

 

 

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

 

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Shifting Your Money MindsetHow much of a difference would a shift in your thinking help in making 2017 your best financial year? Would you be willing to make the change? Especially if you knew it would give you some peace of mind when it comes to your money situation. Would you be willing to do what it takes to improve your circumstances? Hopefully, you’ve answered yes. Please understand that though there are many choices there is one thing that will reap you the largest return and that is to… INVEST IN YOU!!

You can start your journey toward change by learning to separate fact from fiction and by taking responsibility for your actions as you move away from getting caught up with decisions based solely on your emotions. You need to be clear headed if you plan to actually seize the opportunities that unfold and you cannot do so if you are always in reaction mode. You must be proactive in making solid decisions based on real data not on what you ‘wish’ or ‘hope’ for. When you focus on positive thoughts you can also create goals that will inspire you to save and invest. Learn to open your mind and educate yourself by reading, asking questions, and then reading some more. Do your best to immerse yourself in understanding the areas in your life that continue to elude your grasp. Your full attention is required if you expect to master your weak spots. This is especially true when it comes to finances since so many mistakes I see people make are due to their lack of knowledge. Don’t worry, I don’t expect you to take on everything at once. You can start by reading articles from magazines, trade journals and newspapers. These sources are generally well researched and prove most helpful when you arrive at those big decisions that will impact your future.

Becoming a mathematical genius, a stock market guru, or acquiring a degree in finance is NOT necessary to become prosperous. Opportunity exists at every turn if you are prepared to take advantage of it. The journey to wealth begins with a winning mindset and an understanding that every smart decision will bring you even closer to your goals, dreams, and aspirations. When done just right this will also include those financial decisions. But you have to take the first step in changing the way you look at money and how money works within your life. If you have a mental state and belief system that supports the idea “there is not enough” then you will fully live and experience a life of scarcity. Really it’s that simple. You have to shift your money mindset if you want things to be different.

I truly believe more than anything that you can do whatever your mind sets out to do. A life free from financial worry can be yours. You just need to take action so you can create the best life possible for yourself and your family. Your future is up to you! Decide what you want, never give up, and begin now to believe in YOU no matter the circumstances. I certainly do! If you have questions or concerns regarding shifting your money mindset or any area of your finances, feel free to contact me directly at Bonnie@BonnieGortler.com.

To your health, wealth and happiness,

Bonnie Gortler

The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

Visit here for your “Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session”

 

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Bonnie Financial from KathyAre you at peace or frustrated when you think about your day–to-day finances? Have you sat quietly and thought about how to set real change in motion when it comes to your wealth? Decide now that you will create change and make your finances a priority. Be a self-starter towards achieving your financial goals. Don’t wait for someone else, or say you will begin tomorrow. Make proper money management a top priority and watch how the positive results impact your bottom line.

To begin you must right write down your three biggest challenges in terms of your finances. Ask yourself why do you think they are not working? What changes can you make right now and do differently to improve your future earnings or place you in a better position for financial independence?  How can you change your mindset in order to make the needed changes that will keep you stress and worry free?

Changing your habits could involve forgoing some activity or habit that is costing you money but you keep doing even though there is no real benefit or satisfaction. It can anything but for now focus on finding a routine that you do and could just as easily do without. Yes, it’s possible for you to learn a new wealth building attitude, one that suits your needs, one that you will commit to, and one that pays out huge rewards by giving you a feeling of satisfaction and happiness.

You can also start by adjusting the thought patterns and by reevaluating the behaviors surrounding your relationship with money. If all your thoughts are negative, you’ll quickly discover that real change will be more of a challenge and improvement will escape your grasp every time. The only way to move into true prosperity is by thinking good thoughts followed with strategic action because both of these activities will give you a different perspective and will also become the foundation of belief so you understand in your heart that it’s possible for you to have the life you’ve always dreamed about.

“A positive mind finds a way it can be done;
a negative mind looks for all the ways it can’t be done”- Napoleon Hill

It also helps if you begin with the habit of incorporating a new daily behavior that will allow the positive thoughts to become automatic. By consciously forging a new healthy mindset you will develop rituals that will allow you to reach your goals. Decide now to create a plan of action that consists of action steps that move you closer to successfully impacting your finances. It’s never too late to start. Don’t put off your financial well-being. Your future self is depending on you!

Think about one realistic financial goal that is specific and measurable, and then write it down.  All habits can be changed. You can tweak as needed but you must set them in motion by taking action. Habits are learned responses. Once you make a new habit part of a daily routine, they become fully ingrained in what you do and will quickly begin to feel very natural to you. Adopting new ways of change adds to your wealth and will help you live the lifestyle you desire. You can use the additional tips below to help you as well.

Create A Positive Impact On Your Finances:

  • Money July blogDo less, not more. Remove one item that you do often and are not getting the results you desire. Do more of what is giving you the results that you desire.
  • Adopt a positive money mindset, that has an optimistic outlook that gives you the feeling of security and freedom of choice.
  • Develop rituals, routines that keep growing your knowledge and understanding. Do what you love to do, don’t procrastinate, instead take action and don’t wait until everything is perfect. (I’m still learning this principle)
  • Compose a written plan with your individual financial goals. Set goals for 3 months, 6 months, and a year. Pick one to start working on and make it a priority each day.
  • Start a ritual of tracking your finances each day. Watch where you are spending your money each month. When you are comfortable track your spending differentiating between “needs” and “wants” and then create a plan that prioritizes spending within your means.
  • If you need some assistance, find someone who can support and guide you that will keep you accountable to reach your goals.

Here is a worksheet to help you start to focus and have a simple shift when it comes to money.

What SIMPLE changes can you do right now to save?

1)_______________________________

2)_______________________________

3)_______________________________

What are your three MOST SIGNIFICANT financial goals?

1)_______________________________

2)_______________________________

3)_______________________________

What are 3 FINANCIAL GOALS you would like to ACHIEVE in the next 6 months?

1)___________________________________

2)___________________________________

3)___________________________________

If you could make any SIGNIFICANT changes in your finances TODAY to save money for your future, what would they be?

1)___________________________________

2)___________________________________

3)___________________________________

Set in motion your journey to wealth!

Start now and create your own simple money rituals that will have a positive impact on your finances.

I invite you to send an email and share your financial goal setting tips or your money mind shifts experiences to Bonnie@Bonniegortler.com or use the comments box below.

If you like this article, then you will love this!  Click Here: https://bonniegortler.com/10-wealthtips/ 

 

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Welcome to my 7 day event highlighted on my blog, BonnieGortler.com!

The theme is – “To More Wealth and Well-Being”, where you will learn over the next 7 days how to make wealth and well-being yours now and forevermore.

Each day I will share ideas to improve your life, health, and finances.  At the end of the 7 days we will have a drawing for a $35 Amazon Gift Card.

To participate, make sure to comment on my blog (http://BonnieGortler.com) or on my Facebook page (BonnieGortler.com: BG Enterprises) so your name will be entered into the drawing. (Remember, only one (1) comment per day per person is permitted).

Explore, engage, and experience the awesome FREE-gifts and bonuses for you while you are visiting, and please make sure to like my Facebook page and share the wealth by inviting your friends, associates, and loved ones.

It’s real easy for you to enter the drawing and apply the new ideas you will learn so you to have more wealth and well-being from the gifts and bonuses I will share with you each day.

To sweeten the offer, I am including a copy of my book Journey to Wealth: A Practical and Mindful Approach to Growing and Sustaining Your Financial Well-Being (a downloadable copy for an international winner). Grab chapter one via BGJourneyToWealth.com.

Now, you have no excuses. Join in the fun and break through the challenges that you might be experiencing and decide wealth and well-being is yours now!

By taking part, you will quickly discover how to end the struggle for building wealth and begin to create a life full of well-being without the stress. You’ll feel better and become more fulfilled like never before. I’ve put this promotion together so you will be encouraged and get excited in your heart and mind and realize that wealth and well-being is possible for you. I want you to be fully prepared by knowing the steps necessary to create the lifestyle you’ve dreamed about.

You have the power to create change – Invest in YOU!

Today’s Tip to More Wealth and Well-Being
Day 7: More Abundance and Wealth for Your Financial Future

Listen here to the audio version of the article.

Achieve The Goals You Desire – Believe In You 003- Bonnie-Aruba-sand-waterDo you find yourself making excuses and procrastinating about starting an investment plan for your financial future? Are you struggling to grow your wealth and sometimes intimidated or overwhelmed by what has to be done? Making good financial decisions is a skill that anyone can learn by deciding to commit to create change. There is no better time than now to develop a plan where you are in charge and can take responsibility for your financial future. You don’t have to make a dramatic change all at once so it’s hard or even a painful process. You can make small changes, one at a time and before you know it, you will be saving and investing in a natural manner that becomes easier and more rewarding each day.

Your financial goals change at different stages of life. You want to decide if you are investing for the short or long term.  There are periods in life when taking risks is warranted but other phases in life when it is best to be extremely careful with your finances. Everyone’s risk tolerance threshold varies depending on the different situations in life. Some of you are just beginning to build your wealth and still have your entire life ahead of you. Because you are just starting out you have more time ahead to replace capital if lost. A new investor starting out in life has different objectives than one who is now retired after working his or her whole life or living off of money they have saved; and therefore have a lower tolerance for risk because of the lack of time to recover should there be a loss.

Risk is the potential loss you can have on an investment. No matter what circumstance you are in, your risk tolerance needs to be established along with the appropriate investment strategy for your lifestyle, age that fit into the dreams you have for your future. Develop an investment plan that includes a mix of equities and bonds that you want in order to manage risk. Some investments are more uncertain than others. A simple and quick way to decide your portfolio mix of how much equity and bonds is by your age. The older you are the more bonds and less equity you want in your portfolio.   For example, if you are 30 years old then 30% bonds; and 70% equity would be your mix. If you are age 50, then a good investment mix would be 50% bonds and 50 % equity. (Note: future results cannot be guaranteed).

Investments that are too aggressive and keep you up at night are simply too stressful, and don’t align with your commitment to achieving wealth and well-being. Capital preservation is the key to your investments and growing your wealth. If you are losing sleep then these are not the correct investments for you. Consider altering your portfolio by making a small change at a time.  No need to change everything all at once. Decrease in phases to give yourself more peace of mind and less stress, so you can be more comfortable with your investment situation. In the long run, having investments that are quieter, (low volatility) as part of your portfolio will be the most consistent way for you to make the most money.

More Abundance and Wealth for Your Financial Future

  • Write down your short and long term goals and keep them by your side and look at them often.
  • Know where your money is going and what are you spending each month. Be mindful of not spending more than you earn.
  • Write down or create a worksheet on the computer what your monthly expenses are. Notice money spent on items that had no significance or that were not high priorities.
  • Have clear defined objectives. Create a written plan that has a mix of long term, (5 years or more) intermediate term (1 to 5 years) and short term (up to one year) personal financial goals. Financial planning early in life can begin leading you on the road to prosperity.
  • Start saving a few dollars at a time to begin accumulating wealth. Start small, a twenty dollar bill saved today will continue to grow for your future. You will be amazed how dollars turn into hundreds, then into thousands. It’s never too late to begin saving and investing.
  • Remember when investing that all trades will not make money. You will not be perfect. Learn how to let go of past mistakes. Learn to not let emotions rule your decisions. Stay focused, manage your thoughts and create good trading investment habits that will keep you on the right track.
  • Give yourself the gift of peace of mind by doing a little research before you invest. Be realistic with your expectations.
  • Track your investments that you invest in the stock market is a key to mastering your finances. Watch your portfolio daily, check on the price movement of your individual stocks or mutual funds.
  • Time is your friend when you are investing. Money will grow if you leave it to accumulate and don’t spend it.
  • Manage your risk! Protect your assets. Prevent large losses on your investments. Remember the best loss is the smallest loss. It is more important not to lose than it is to win.  Slow and steady consistent growth is much better than a roller coaster ride up and down with your investments.

With you making a commitment to a few simple changes carried out a little each day with consistency, you will, over time achieve your dreams and enjoy a bright financial future. A proper plan will not only save you money, but will also be enable you the flexibility to use your money on what gives you pleasure rather than only using it for meeting the basic needs that fill your life. Making even a small change is something that you can do without too much effort; when you do you will find the benefits are worth every step taken. Even the smallest action steps add up and are enough to make a true difference in your life. You have the power to turn things around. Learn to become accountable to you and take charge of your financial future so you can reap the benefits for years to come.

Your Journey to Wealth Is Within Reach!

I have a free offer for you.

Discover the Right Wealth Building Attitude with my book, Journey to Wealth: A Practical and Mindful Approach to Growing and Sustaining Financial Well-Being. You will have your own stock market toolbox to help manage your finances to be a more disciplined profitable investor.

Download my first chapter Click here: http://bgjourneytowealth.com/jtw-chp1offer/

I have a bonus for you. You are invited to schedule your inspired wealth and well-being Free 30 minute discovery session.

Click here to connect: https://bonniegortler.com/connect/. I am looking forward to a powerful session with you. You will have new clarity, a sense of tranquility about your next steps, and more confidence to create wealth and well-being so you can truly enjoy life again .

Be sure to visit my blog or FB page to have your comments count for the drawing. (I am drawing tomorrow).

To your health, wealth, and happiness,

Bonnie
The Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Coach

 

Schedule your Inspired Wealth and Well-Being Free 30 minute Discovery Session


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A possible breakout to the upside in US equity averages failed once again in the past week. However, the S&P 500 has almost recovered from its recent losses with a potential key reversal day to the upside on 05/27/15. The technology sector, represented by PowerShares QQQ (QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index) is acting better. The semiconductors (see chart of SOXX below) are strong, showing leadership, already penetrating January’s high which is bullish for the technology sector and good for the overall health of the stock market.

SMH 052915 Newsletter

Power Shares QQQ Daily Price and Trend Channels (Top), and 12-26-9 Daily MACD (Bottom)

0527qqq dailyThe top part of the chart is the Power  Shares QQQ Trust; an exchange traded fund (ETF) based on the Nasdaq 100 Index. The Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. As of 5/26/15, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 14.61% and Microsoft Corp (MSFT) is the second largest holding at 7.40%. Both stocks peaked in late April, like the QQQ, but their present chart patterns appear favorable supporting higher prices for the QQQ. The top portion of the chart above shows how the QQQ has been unable to get through the top of the short term daily channel. Each time it was near, prices turned down. A closing price above for two days would be considered a breakout. Resistance now is at 112.50, with the uptrend since October 2014 (pink line) in effect. First support is at 107.50. A break below would suggest prices could quickly fall to the lower daily channel at 105.00 followed by 97.00. The lower portion of the daily QQQ chart is MACD, a momentum oscillator. When it is above 0 and rising, it indicates increasing momentum. There is also a slight upside break in the downtrend from March (Pink line) that has positive short term implications.

As long as QQQ is above 107.50, look for higher prices. Power Shares QQQ Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and RSI 14 (Bottom) 

052717 qqq weeklyThe top portion of the weekly QQQ chart (to the right) also shows how QQQ for the intermediate term has stopped rising when price is near or at the top of the channel. QQQ remains above its recent breakout to the upside (pink line). The top channel objective is 112.50, the same area of resistance as the daily chart. When the QQQ moves through the resistance level, the next objective is 124.00. The lower portion of the chart is the Relative Strength Index, (RSI 14), a momentum indicator developed by Welles Wilder. It would be bullish, confirming higher prices ahead if the downtrend is broken. It is now very close to breaking the trend line from July 2014. If broken, expect further strength that could be could be sharp and fast, potentially triggering any buy stops that investors could have in place. Watch the indicator to see how high the reading gets before it turns down. If the RSI could get to 70 or above it should buy more time for the bull market environment: A secondary test of the price highs in QQQ would most likely happen before a major top would be in place.

Monthly QQQ/SPY Ratio (Top) RSI of QQQ/SPY Ratio (Bottom) 

052715 qqqspyrel strengthThe top part of the chart is the monthly ratio QQQ/SPY ratio. A rising line means the Nasdaq 100 is stronger and if falling, the S&P 500 is stronger. With the line continuing to rise, this confirms the long term strength in the QQQ vs. the S&P, which normally bodes well for the stock market. The monthly ratio is at its highs and rising is additional evidence that the bull market in technology remains in effect. This bodes well for the QQQ to suggest that the QQQ will break through the top of the daily and weekly channel. The lower chart above is the RSI of the QQQ/SPY Ratio shows a favorable uptrend from early 2013 in effect. The RSI of the QQQ/SPY ratio is trading near its highs at 70.80. With the rally in technology since March, the small double top pattern that was forming has been negated, alleviating any sign of potential danger at this time.

Just To Sum Up: The market has been unable to have a significant breakout to the upside. The technology sector is close to breaking through the top of the short and intermediate term channels. Momentum patterns in the technology sector are favorable and could be the catalyst for an upside breakout. As long as QQQ is above 107.50, look for higher prices in the stock market. If QQQ penetrates 112.50 on a closing basis for two days it would be considered a breakout and the next leg of the advance could begin. I would love to hear from you! Any thoughts, questions comments, feedback; please call me at 1-844-829-6229 or email at bonniegortler@signalert.com

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The stock market reacted well with the S&P 500 (SPY) challenging the top of this year’s trading range after the May 2015 employment data was released, but prices failed to follow through to the upside, while still holding well above the March lows. My prediction is that prices will eventually break out from the trading range. Once the trading range is broken, the move will be in the direction of the break and most likely will be significant. Trading action is dull (I never like to sell a dull market short). The S&P 500 (SPY) 25 day average trading day range is 0.52%, and VIX (a measurement of fear) is at 13.00, a low reading.

Market tops take a long time to form. Money is rotating in and out of sectors with transports (IYT), utilities (XLU), and 20 Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) all out of favor and under pressure. Telecom (IYZ), real estate (IYR), and biotechnology sectors also have not been acting well as of late, losing their relative strength compared to S&P 500. The good news is many intermediate and longer term chart uptrends remain intact, which is bullish for the overall market. For now, our models are favorable, the global markets’ chart patterns show improved relative strength and continue to support the US market. Also the emerging markets (EEM) monthly chart looks extremely favorable, with a huge consolidation going back to 2011 suggesting plenty of opportunity for a substantial advance.

What Chart Is Key Now?–Weekly S&P 500 (SPY) and MACD (Bottom)

The top chart is the weekly S&P 500 (SPY) ETF, showing an uptrend from the lows in November 2012, except for one penetration in October 2014, which reversed very quickly to the upside. This year, SPY has moved higher, challenging the highs and then retreating from them.

dull market
A tight trading range of 7.4% from its high to low has formed. A low was made on 02/2/15 of 197.86, with a high on 04/27/15 of 212.48. Support in the SPY 500 (SPY) is 204 and resistance is 213. A close above or below these levels for 2 days would be considered significant with more follow through in that direction. Upside objectives are 220, followed by 230.00. Downside objectives 197.00 followed by 188.00. The bottom chart, MACD, (a momentum indicator) continues to show weakening momentum, as price has moved higher since 2014. This is a bit disturbing and needs to be watched, to see if it can break the downside trendline or if the momentum continues to fail. If the S&P 500 breaks to the upside and MACD confirms the breakout, this would be bullish for the intermediate term, negating the unfavorable declining pattern that has formed. The daily chart (not shown) is very close to breaking its momentum down trend from December 2014 if prices move higher now.

Just to Sum Up:

The trading range continues in the S&P 500 (SPY) while other sectors are weakening compared to the S&P 500. Sector and group rotation is going on as the market is quiet and dull with an occasional one day wonder. The prospect of higher interest rates in the upcoming months remains a concern for investors with the 10 year bond yields near their highs of 2015 that could cause further choppy action in U.S. equities and bears watching. The jury is still out on the next big move the S&P will make therefore following the market action of the S&P 500 (SPY) as a guide is the best. A break above 213 on the S&P 500 (SPY) would suggest higher prices going forward, while a break below 204.00 would suggest a market decline of more significance
could be under way.

With our models still favorable and the international markets strengthening and supporting our market I give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls and look for higher prices ahead potentially 220, followed by 230.00 on the S&P 500.

Just in case the market moves to the downside, it’s best not to leave your investments unattended in case momentum patterns weaken instead of strengthening as expect. Keeping a watchful eye and having a plan with an exit strategy in place will serve you better. If interest rates rise sharply quicker than expected, this could be the next catalyst to the next significant market decline instead of higher prices and a breakout to the upside.

I invite you to share your stock market insights, questions or comments by calling me at 1-844-829-6229 or Email me at bgortler@signalert.com.

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“Expect the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes.” Zig Ziglar

The stock market decline from early October seems like a distant memory with stock market indices such as S&P 500 and NASDAQ at or near their highs for the year. Since the October 15th low the S&P 500 has had virtually no pull back. Technical indicators which were oversold are now extended in the short term. Historically after a sharp decline, a test of the old lows occurs 3-6 weeks later. The market is now within this time period for a test to take place. At any time a small correction could happen and this would be a buying opportunity to take advantage of since we are in a favorable seasonal period.

Sector selection this year has been important for investors this year. Internationals, small caps, oil, gold, and silver have lagged. Technology, finance, real estate, and defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities have been leading the stock market higher. Small caps have been out of favor unable to be a catalyst to signal higher prices ahead like I thought could happen, even though the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) broke the daily down trend from June’s high through the September high.

Another laggard but popular area of the market this year is the internet sector, (FDN) which is weaker than the S&P 500, only up 4.6% for the year. I find it very useful to use this index as a guide for how much risk investors are willing to take and for the short term direction of the market.

What Do The Charts Say?

Social media, especially Twitter and Facebook, is a growing industry and happens to be a great passion of mine. Technology has improved quickly over the years expanding the experience of the user and increasing the popularity of these stocks. Investors have large profits in the sector although volatility and risk are high. Investing in one single stock has higher risk than having a more diversified portfolio of internet stocks, I recommend using the First Trust DJ Internet Index Fund ETF (FDN). As of November 10, 2014 the top holdings of the FDN consist of Information technology 72.18% and consumer discretionary 22.45% along with small portions in financials and health care. The largest holding is Facebook (FB) with 9.76%. Other top holdings are Amazon.com, (AMZN) 7.92%,eBay, (EBAY) 6.15%, The Priceline Group Inc. (PCLN) 5.71% and Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) 5.69% totaling 35.23%.                                                                                           

First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) Weekly

111214 FDN weekly

In the top chart,to the right, the price of FDN is making lower highs from early January and a down trend is in effect. If price fails to make a higher high this would suggest any rally in the overall market could be suspect with traders not wanting to commit to invest in areas that are more speculative.

I also think instead of being the start of a broader rally into the end of the year with more sectors participating in the advance, the overall market could first have to test the recent lows. If the internet sector could break out to the upside over 64 this could be the catalyst to ignite the fourth quarter advance.

The bottom portion of the chart is MACD, a technical indicator which measures momentum. MACD is oversold, in a favorable position. It would be bullish to see prices turn up from here along with momentum to continue to turn up and break its downtrend.                                                                                    

Facebook, Inc. (FB) Weekly

I am concerned with the recent action in Facebook (FB).

111014 FB weeklh

Facebook is the largest holding in the internet index. Many investors have large holdings and profits in the stock.

The top portion of the chart shows FB is at a key area. FB made a new high on October 28th at 80.77, now 7.9% off of its high trading at 74.38. The weekly trend has been up since July 2013 but if prices don’t hold here, then the uptrend could be broken which would be negative for the sector and potentially the overall market.

The lower portion of the chart is MACD
which concerns me. A negative divergence has formed with price making a high but MACD is failing to confirm the high. So far the uptrend in momentum is intact but this could change quickly. Downside channel objective is 57.50. Investors who have large holdings might consider taking some profits off the table if the stock falls below 72.50.

If you still like the sector as a whole you could lighten up in Facebook and buy FDN instead.

Facebook, Inc. (FB) / SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Weekly Relative Strength

The chart to the right is the relative strength between Facebook and S&P 500 (FB/SPY). When the line is rising it means FB is stronger. When the line is falling, SPY is stronger. Notice the recent trendline break of the uptrend from July on the top portion and on the lower portion of the chart MACD is confirming weakness generating a sell.  Now is not the time to be overly invested in Facebook.

111014 fbrsi spy

Just to Sum Up

High risk speculative areas of the market  such as the internet sector are giving technical warning signals and could be  the next area where a significant decline could occur when investors decide it’s time to take profits. Keep an eye if internet stocks start to fall, diverging from the S&P 500 which is now leading in relative strength.

If you own individual stocks in this sector, it’s a good idea to have an exit strategy of where to sell. If FB falls below 72.50, this could be the start of overall weakness in the sector. With negative patterns developing on the intermediate and long term charts it’s time to lower the expectation of what gains could be from here in the internet sector. If you do want to stay invested in this sector, instead of risking the investment in one single stock, invest in the First Trust Dow Jones Internet ETF (FDN) index, so you will have less risk but would still have exposure to the internet area. Keep in mind the stock market is now in the 3-6 week window where a short term decline could occur at any time.

I invite you to call me if you would like to review your investments at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at
bgortler@signalert.com.

cartoo13.png 7 habits of successfully peopleimage source: www.forum.srilankaequity.com,accessed 11/13/2014

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Invest a few moments in thinking. It will pay good interest.” ~Author Unknown

stock-market-cartoons-5-300x202The stock market continues its roller coaster ride. A broad sell-off occurred during the first half of October, but the market has come back with vengeance the second half of the month. The sharp decline happened after some of the key indices broke short term support levels, and some long term trend lines were violated generating extreme pessimism. The market responded with a huge reflex rally.

In the last newsletter September 17, 2014, I had identified some key areas of where the market needed to hold. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell from 201.82 to 181.92, 9.86%, not quite reaching the downside objective of 178.00. The XLE fell from 94.84 to 77.51 holding above the channel objective of 75, bottoming at 77.50. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) held its major support almost perfectly holding 90.00, trading at 90.24, its low for the decline. The recent advance has been much more than a rally back to old resistance levels. Many times with sharp declines there is a quick test of the lows followed by a safer entry 3-6 weeks later. This time prices rebounded sharply, making a V shaped formation with no test of the lows. With the severity of the decline the stock market got very oversold, and now has changed again to the market being in an overbought condition. Fear has disappeared despite the moves of more than one percent on a regular basis shrinking the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from 24.64 on October 13, 2014 to 15.00.

Where Do the Charts Stand Now?

Daily iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) IWM with its MACD

102814 iwm weely 3 linesSmall caps have been out of favor, under performing the S&P 500 this year, but could be the next catalyst to signal higher prices ahead. The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) peaked July 1, 2014, fell below its 200-day moving average, bottomed in August, and failed to take out the highs in September, giving a warning of potential market weakness ahead. IWM broke its short term trend when it fell below 111 from the secondary high of 117.80 on 09/03/14. The decline accelerated after penetrating 110.00, falling 12.11 % to its intraday low of103.54 on 10/ 15/14. On the reflex rally the IWM stalled at the resistance zone from 110-112 for a few days and then broke above the line closing at 114.35 on 10/28/14,just missing breaking the daily down trend from the peak made on 07/01/14 of 120.97. A break above this level would confirm higher prices ahead and would be considered short term bullish. If we could break 116, investors might be more willing to take on the risk.The lower part of the chart is the momentum indicator MACD. After peaking in July 2014 and then forming a secondary peak in September, MACD has now turned up from an oversold condition (below 0), now very close to breaking the down trend from the peaks in September and October. This would be bullish and be another confirmation of higher prices.

 

102914 iwm rs new machineChart 2 Weekly Relative Strength Russell 2000 and S&P 500 ETF with its MACD (IWM / SPY)

The top half of the chart  to the right is showing a change in leadership for the intermediate term between the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. A rising line means the iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) is stronger. A falling line means the S&P 500 (SPY) is stronger. Small caps peaked early in 2014, they had a few unsuccessful rally attempts this year bu thave failed. A change has taken place. Notice the recent break inthe downtrend. This is suggesting that the iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) IWM could now outperform the S&P 500 and lead the market higher during the next advance. The lower chart is a MACD on the relative strength ratio IWM/SPY which is confirming the change in leadership which could very well be the next catalyst to the advance.

Just to Sum Up:

The bulls and bears battled during the month of October. First a decline, then there was a reflex rally that was stronger than expected, leaving the bulls in control. The quick sharp decline was a needed pullback that has created the potential to take advantage of financial opportunities, especially in the small cap sector that now has favorable chart patterns and favorable seasonality. Additional short-term volatility is expected and there is still a chance there could be a test of the recent lows later this year, but for now the market appears to be out of major danger of a real serious decline. Selling pressure has subsided, market breadth has improved, new lows have contracted, international markets have mostly stabilized and small caps are now leading in relative strength, all positive signs. The market has made it through the volatile months of September of October and now favorable seasonality is here. There is better value and less risk at this time to take positions in the small cap sector, the iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) IWM for some of the cash that you have or might have accumulated on the decline.

Let’s talk investments together, I invite you to call me at 844-829-6444 or E mail me at BGortler@signalert.com.

   

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