Bonnie’s Market Update 9/19/25

Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed at new highs. Five of the eleven S&P SPDR sectors were higher. Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) were the strongest sectors, while Consumer Staples (XLP) and Real Estate (XLRE) were the weakest. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose +1.24%.

S&P SPDR Sector ETFs Performance Summary 9/12/25 – 09/19/25

091925 weekly SPDR Sectors

Source: Stockcharts.com

Figure 2: Bonnie’s ETFs Watch List Performance Summary 9/12/25 – 09/19/25

091925 Bonnie’s ETF Watch List

Source: Stockcharts.com

Semiconductors. Technology, and Small Cap Growth led the market higher, while international markets lagged.

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Charts to Watch:

Minor divergence in the Advance Decline Lines

Figure 3: S&P 500 Price and NYSE, SPX, Mid and Small Cap Ad Lines 

091925 $SPX and NYSE, SPX MID, and Small Ad Lines

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 made a new high. However, notice the minor divergence in breadth, no confirmation (red arrows) in the New York Index (NYSE) Common Stock only, S&P 500, S&P Mid Cap, and S&P Small Cap Advance Decline Lines.

Figure 4: Nasdaq New Highs

091925 Nasdaq New Highs

Source: Stockcharts.com

Nasdaq is at an all-time high, but New Highs contracted last week, closing on Friday at 391 after reaching 481, the best level of 2025.

Figure 5: Fear & Greed Index

CNN Fear and Greed Index

Source. CNN.com

Investor sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index (a contrarian indicator), rose from Neutral to Greed last week. If it gets to Extreme Greed, it would imply too much optimism, and the risk of a short-term pullback would increase.

Figure 6: CBOE 10YR U.S. Treasury Yield Daily

092025 UST 10 YR Bond Yield

Source: Stockcharts.com

The 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield rose, closing at 4.139, after the Fed cut short-term interest rates by ¼ point last week. Notice that your Money Market Mutual Fund is likely paying less than the previous week, as is Charles Schwab brokerage.

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NYSE New Lows Increase

Figure 7: NYSE New Lows

091925 NYSE New Lows

Source: Stockcharts.com

New Lows On The NYSE peaked at 1167 on 4/7/25, then contracted sharply as the market bottomed in April.

New Lows are on the rise, inching higher, closing Friday, 9/19, at 49, no longer in the lowest risk zone below 25, but remain positive where prices tend to rise. It will remain positive in the short-term if New Lows stay between 25 and 50. On the other hand, if new lows begin to increase and exceed 150, it would be a negative sign.

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Figure 8: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

091925 VIX Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of fear, peaked on April 7.

The VIX upticked last week, but remains low, closing at 15.45. A reading above 20.38 (8/1 VIX reading) would be the first sign that intraday volatility is more likely to increase. Above 25.00 would likely imply that the VIX will continue to rise and could jump between 32 and 40 quickly if there is any unexpected news.

The SPY Intermediate Trend Remains Up

Figure 9: S&P 500 Weekly (SPY) and 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

091025 SPY weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 (SPY) remains in an intermediate uptrend from October 2022. After hitting a low in April 2025, SPY consolidated its gains and then broke out of its channel, followed by SPY making new all-time highs.

The S&P 500 has continued to make new all-time highs since the April 2025 low. The largest Technology stocks account for more than 30% of the S&P 500. Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Because of the significant weighting, as these stocks perform over the next few weeks, the odds are that the S&P 500 will follow.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a buy, above 0, and is still rising.

The MFI Index hit 80, remains overbought, showing strength, not yet any significant turn down, suggesting money is moving out of the S&P 500.

Summing Up:

After hitting the daily projection of 635.00, the SPY remains resilient, with only a minor retracement. The intermediate upside projection remains at 700.00. A weekly close below 647.00 would imply a pullback toward 633.00 and 622.00 and potentially more. For now, the bulls continue to get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

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New High in the Value Line Arithmetic Average is bullish

Figure 10: Value Line Arithmetic Average Weekly (Top) and 12-26-9 MACD (Bottom)

091025 VLE weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Value Line Arithmetic Index ($VLE) is a mix of approximately 1700 stocks.

The VLE uptrend from October 2022 (pink line) is in effect.

VLE remains above its rising 50-week MA (blue rectangle) and the 200-week MA (red rectangle), implying underlying strength.

Support is at 11750, 11142, and 10750. Resistance is 12200.

As long as the Value Line Arithmetic Average remains firm, it is positive for the broad market in the short and intermediate term.

Learn how to implement a powerful wealth-building mindset and charting strategies to help you grow your wealth in the comfort of your home in my eCourse Wealth Through Investing Made Simple. Learn more here.

The Russell 2000 Small Cap index daily and intermediate trend is up.

Figure 11: Daily iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

091925 IWM Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) made its first all-time closing high since November 2021.

IWM had been in a tight range over the last few weeks, rising +2.24% last week despite closing down -0.76% on Friday. IWM has shown strength, now up 7 weeks in a row, in a clear uptrend from August (black line), and remains above both the 50-day moving average (blue rectangle) and the 200-day moving average (red rectangle).

Support is at 240.00, 236.00, 232.00, 220.00, 214.00, and 210.00. Resistance is at 247.00.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, having just missed falling below 0 in August to generate a fresh buy signal. Momentum is sideways.

The Money Flow (lower chart) did not reach 80 in August, then turned down, and is rising as small caps are in favor now.

 Figure 12: Weekly iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

091025 IWM weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Russell 2000 (IWM) remains in an intermediate uptrend. IWM continues to make higher lows and higher lows.

Support is at 232.00 and 220.00.

In Sum:

As long as IWM closes for the week above 232.00, the bulls continue to get the benefit of the doubt.

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 It’s positive that Semiconductor (SMH) is showing leadership.

Figure 13: Daily Semiconductors (SMH) (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

091925 SMH Daily

 Source: Stockcharts.com

The top chart shows the Daily Semiconductor (SMH) ETF, which is concentrated mainly in US-based Mega-Cap Semiconductor companies. SMH can be highly volatile. SMH tends to be a leading indicator for the market when investors are willing to take on increased risk, and the opposite is true when the market is falling.

After a tight consolidation for several weeks, the SMH breakout looks more convincing, rising by +3.74% last week, making another new high, and hitting its 315.00 objective. New upside objective is 340.00. SMH remains above both the rising 50-day MA (blue rectangle) and the 200-day MA (red rectangle).

Support is at 309.00, 300.00, 292.00, 282.00, and 265.00.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, barely missing a fresh buy signal resetting at 0. During strong moves, MACD sometimes will not fall below 0, and turn up.

The Money Flow (lower chart) closed at 74.86, after turning up sharply. It would be positive if Money Flow continues to rise.

If Semiconductors (SMH) continue to hold onto their recent gains and accelerate higher, it would have a short-term positive impact on the broad market. On the other hand, if SMH is weak and turns down and closes two days below 309.00, a pullback to 282.00 and 265.00 is possible.

QQQ September Cycle Bottom Intact

Figure 14: QQQ Daily Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Price (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

091925 QQQ Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Chart shows the daily Invesco QQQ, an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remains in an uptrend (purple solid line), up +2.16% closing last week at 599.35, a new high. Next upside projection is 615.00. Two closes below 577.00 would negate the upside objective.

Support is at 577.00, 560.00, 551.00, and 540.00.

MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell, above 0, breaking the momentum downtrend, a sign of strength.

Money Flow (bottom chart) is rising after being in a downtrend, closing at 81.95, an overbought reading. A turn-down would imply that money is moving away from Technology.

QQQ has broken out of its trading range in line with the September cycle bottom mentioned in the 8/29 market update.

Figure 15: Apple (AAPL) Weekly Price (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle)

091925 AAPl Weekly

Apple (AAPL), a +7.7% holding in QQQ, had a big up day on Friday, up 3.20% after the release and availability of the new iPhone.

The MACD provided a timely buy signal in July and is showing strong momentum, which is a short-term positive for the broad market heading into the end of September, where portfolio managers who are underweight are likely to add to their portfolio.

The upside channel projection on an intermediate basis is 270.00. A close below 222.00 would negate my upside objective.

Summing Up:

All major averages showed gains last week and have made record highs, continuing the rally from the April 2025 low with only minor retracements despite a seasonally weak September. The intermediate trend remains up on the major averages. As long as Technology, Small-Cap stocks, and market breadth remain firm and support levels hold, the bulls remain in control, and higher prices are likely. Manage your risk, and your wealth will grow.

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Bonnie S. Gortler

Bonnie Gortler, Consultant, Coach, and Author specializing in Wealth and Well-Being, is a successful stock market professional who has been instrumental in managing multi-million-dollar client portfolios within a top-rated investment firm during her over 35-year corporate career. As the author of "Journey to Wealth" anand "Journey to Well-Being", Bonnie is dedicated to teaching the importance of risk management and achieving true financial well-being by integrating both the technical and mental aspects of investing. With an M.B.A. and certification as a life coach, Bonnie combines her passion for coaching, consulting, and blogging to inspire people globally. Her powerful techniques and winning mindset help others experience personal growth and financial success. Explore wealth-building tips, personal development strategies, and more at BonnieGortler.com, and discover how you can enhance your wealth and well-being.

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