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For the first time this year, the Nasdaq hit a bump in the road. Investors took profits and rotated out of big cap tech stocks. No major damage occurred during the sell-off, but the enthusiasm quieted. Investors used the sell-off as a short term buying opportunity. The trend remains up. Short term support levels are intact. Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term (weeks-months). The bulls remain in control for now.

Technology has higher projections. Top Holdings in QQQ remain in an uptrend.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and
Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  As of 06/20/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.49%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.20%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 7.20%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.47%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 5.01%, and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), 4.38% totaling 41.75%.

The QQQ penetrated the middle channel after a 9-week consolidation trading between 129.38 and 134.00 (the red circle) on 04/24/17.  The upside target is 158.00, an 11.2% gain from present levels, now trading at 140.33 as of 06/21/17 intraday.  The intermediate trend remains up as long as the QQQ remains above the trendline (see the orange line).  Notice how the middle channel and the trend line are very near one another, increasing the significance of key support at 129.00.  If the QQQ falls below 129.00, on a weekly close, this would change the trend from up to down and more caution would be warranted.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9), a measure of momentum.  MACD has confirmed the price high in the QQQ.  The uptrend remains in effect (green line).  Over the next several weeks watch to see if MACD breaks the uptrend, giving a warning of a trend change and potentially more selling could occur in the QQQ, or if MACD turns up again making another new high which would be bullish.

Weekly Price of Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook, (FB) and MACD 12-26-9

 


Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook, (FB) are top holdings of the QQQ and are in weekly uptrends (orange line).  MACD in all four stocks has made highs, confirming their price high which is bullish.   As long as these stocks remain in uptrends the QQQ should continue higher towards the upside objective of 158.00.

Apple (APPL) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top),
and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 


The top part of the chart shows the weekly price of Apple’s active trading channel (purple lines), projecting the upside objective at 175.00.  Apple had a false breakout peaking on 05/08/17 (red circle), then retreated from 156.42 to 142.20, a pullback of 9.1%, more than the 2-3% I expected.   Even with the recent decline, the intermediate uptrend (black line) remains in effect.  Another test of the high is possible. 

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD did go on a sell after Apple’s (APPL) large rise. Even with the MACD sell, I remain optimistic another test of the highs is likely because MACD confirmed Apple’s price high (green circle) and MACD uptrend remains intact.  These confirmations are positive signs another rally attempt is likely.  If either trend is broken to the downside, my bullish outlook would be negated.

In Sum: 

Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term which means upside potential remains greater than downside risk.  Technology stocks continue to lead the market higher despite last week’s weakness.  The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) price, MACD, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook, (FB) are all intact which is bullish. Apple is the only stock to have generated an MACD sell.  If the QQQ falls below 129.00, on a weekly close, this would change the trend from up to down. If the uptrend is broken on either price or MACD on the QQQ more caution will be necessary.   For now give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.  

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts June 22, 2017

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

 

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No one really knows if the old adage sell and go away in May will hold true for 2017. What is known is May has begun quietly as the S&P 500 remains in a narrow trading range on less than inspiring momentum. However, the present tape action is a far cry from bear market action.

The technology sector continues to soar to new highs. In the 02/16/17/ Issue of Systems and Forecasts I brought attention to the possibility of another leg up for Technology, revisiting the article on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout. This indeed has occurred. The QQQ original objective was 130.00, followed by 139.00.  On 05/09/17 the QQQ made an intra-day high of 138.93, meeting the upside objective.

 

The Tape Remains Mostly Bullish


PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index)
Weekly Price and Trend Channels
(Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  The top holdings are Apple, (AAPL), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Facebook, (FB) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) and all have been climbing.

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), led by Apple is red-hot and looks as if there is more room to the upside.  In the latest issue, I pointed out it’s necessary to watch and see if MACD made a higher high or if MACD turns down. Notice the lower chart.  MACD made a new high confirming the high made by QQQ. This confirmation suggests the odds favor an extension of the rise and has bullish implications going forward over the next several weeks to months.  Any weakness now should be contained and only be temporary before another rally attempt would occur.

If the QQQ falls below support at 129.00, just under where the QQQ consolidated early this year, much more caution is necessary.


In Sum:

The QQQ intermediate uptrend remains in effect (orange line). The upside target for the QQQ is 157.00.  The breakout is in process. Time is now on the side of the bulls.


Apple Charges Ahead Leading the Technology Sector Higher

The top half is a price chart showing the weekly high-low-close of Apple since April 2014.  Apple was out of favor in 2015, until June 2016 when investors selling turned into buying.  A clear uptrend is in effect (black line). As long as Apple is above the trend line, the intermediate trend is up.

Apple has had explosive momentum in 2017, going from 117.91 to 154.08, a gain of 30.68 %. Notice how Apple this week has penetrated the upper channel. This is a bullish breakout giving a new channel upside objective to 175.00 (orange line).  A test of the breakout could occur in the near term, amounting to only 2.00% – 3.00%.  However the recent thrust suggests the advance will continue and declines would be very minor.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD has confirmed the Apple’s price high (green circle) similar to the QQQ.  A solid uptrend remains intact.


Summing Up:

Our equity models remain overall neutral–bullish, a potentially favorable market climate, although there has been an increase in risk. Technology stocks remain the leader supporting the overall market.  MACD on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and Apple (AAPL) has confirmed the recent price highs. The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq (QQQ) and Apple (AAPL) are solidly intact.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has an upside target of 157.00 and Apple has an upside target to 175.00.  This could be the year where you don’t want to go away and sell in May.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! Free Instant Access to Grow Your Wealth and Well-Being E-Book HERE

 

*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts May 11, 2017

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The short-term decline in April has ended.  The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all successfully tested key support levels this past week.  The recent news of possible tax cuts sooner rather than later, an optimistic perceived outcome to the election in Europe, and a good start to the earning season has spurred a potential new leg of the advance.   Overhead resistance on some indices exists.   However, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has made a new high, has broken through resistance giving new upside projections, which could carry the overall market higher for the next several months.   More time is needed to know if other averages will follow suit or if the present rally will fizzle.   However my prediction is there is more room to the upside.

Technology leads the way.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its operative trend channel.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.  As of 04/24/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.84%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.20%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.80%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.38%, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.70%, and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL), 4.10% totaling 41.02%

The QQQ has been rock solid this year, leading in relative strength vs. the S&P 500, and up almost twice the gains of the S&P 500.  The QQQ has slightly penetrated the middle channel after a 9-week consolidation, where the QQQ traded between 129.38 and 134.00 (the red circle), now trading at 135.14.  The bullish outcome is not a surprise.  (See my article in the 03/15/17 Systems and Forecasts: Weekly MACD confirms the advance: Higher prices anticipated).  The next upside target is 157.00, a 16.2% gain from present levels. The intermediate trend remains up as long as the QQQ remains above the up trendline line (orange).

Because the initial upside thrust since the election was so strong, the expectation the first decline wouldn’t be significant is exactly what has occurred.  The present breakout needs to be watched closer.  Keep an eye on how Apple (AAPL) performs, the largest holding of QQQ.  If the Nasdaq continues to show leadership, making new highs, then it could support the market and help the technology sector over the next several months.  

On the other hand, if the QQQ falls below 129.00, retracing its recent gains, a warning sign of a potential change of trend would be given.  If the QQQ falls below 125.00 breaking the uptrend, (orange line) more caution would be warranted with possibly a larger correction on the horizon than the decline in April.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9), a measure of momentum.  It was a bullish MACD pattern that confirmed the price high made in QQQ in February 2017, before the recent consolidation.  The uptrend remains in effect (pink-line).  The QQQ has made a new high.  If MACD turns down failing to make a new high, a negative divergence would occur.  Over the next several weeks watch to see if MACD makes a higher high.  This would be bullish.  If MACD turns down, this would complete the negative divergence pattern and would be considered bearish. 

Summing Up:

Our models remain overall neutral-positive for the intermediate term which means upside potential remains greater than downside risk.  Technology stocks continue to lead the market higher.  After many weeks of consolidation and weakening momentum, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has broken through resistance giving new upside projections to 157.00 which could carry the overall market higher for the next several months.  The advance seems to be broadening.  Market breadth is improving, financials and small caps have come to life again gaining in relative strength. These are all signs of a healthy market.  The intermediate uptrend in Nasdaq (QQQ) price and in MACD is intact.  If the uptrend is broken on either price or MACD more caution will be necessary, as the odds would increase the advance will fizzle and no longer sizzle. For now, the bulls remain in control, continue to enjoy the ride. 

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts April 27, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

 

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During the past five weeks the stock market held its own, holding key support levels and avoiding any major losses. The S&P 500 remains near its highs, holding above key support as it has been consolidating within a narrow trading range. Nonetheless, bullish momentum slowed down in US equities during March. This is normal considering the huge upside thrust that occurred in January and February. The Nasdaq Composite continues to lead the S&P 500 in relative strength, a bullish sign.

Fewer stocks have made new highs during the advance because of the decrease in momentum. Financials and small caps were the leaders of the advance in the aftermath of the election. However, they have weakened considerably in the past month. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. On any weakness look for buying opportunities with the expectation of another rally attempt taking place sooner rather than later.

Buying Opportunity in Energy

One of the worst performing sectors in the first quarter was energy. But that might be about to change. The short and intermediate term has shifted from down to up. This could present an opportunity to buy low rather than chasing a rally.

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE Daily (TOP) and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom

The top chart is the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) that tracks the Energy Sector Index, investing in common stocks in the Oil, Natural Gas, and Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration industries.  As of 04/7/17 its top 4 holdings are Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) 23.11%, Chevron (CVX) 15.47%, Schlumberger Ltd (SLB) 8.23%, and Conoco Phillips (CON) 4.66%, totaling 51.47%. Be aware the XLE is an aggressive investment vehicle.  The XLE 90-day volatility is 1.72 compared to the S&P 500 of 1.00.

The XLE peaked on 12/16/2016 at 78.45 and steadily declined through the first quarter of 2017, making lower highs and lower lows forming a down trend. The XLE bottomed 03/27/17 at 67.86. The downtrend was broken on 04/05/17.   However, the XLE reversed to close near its lows suggesting the breakout could be false.   There was no follow through to the downside so investors stepped in to buy.  On 04/10/17 the XLE closed clearly above the downtrend line and is in the process of testing the breakout.  Short term support is at 70.00, resistance is at 73.00.

The bottom half of the chart shows the 12-26-9 MACD, a technical indicator that shows you  changes in direction, momentum, and strength of the stock’s price. MACD generated a buy in late March from an oversold condition below 0, is gaining momentum, and has broken its downtrend from its December 2016 peak after moving sideways since February.  This suggests the downside risk should be contained in the near term.

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF XLE Weekly (TOP) and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top portion shows the weekly SPDR S&P Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE).  The XLE was trending higher for 2016, peaking at 78.45.  This year the XLE has been the opposite, out of favor by investors, much weaker than other sectors to start the year.  The XLE this past week broke the weekly downtrend (purple line), shifting the intermediate trend to up.  Resistance is at 76.00.  A break below the recent low at 67.86 would negate my near term bullish outlook and increase the odds of a further decline.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum. MACD gave a sell in January. However, MACD has now reset, falling to below 0.  Downside momentum has subsided.  If the XLE turns up now, MACD would generate a fresh buy signal supporting the bullish case the XLE is ready to resume its bullish trend from 2016.

In Sum:

The market continues to be resilient.  The S&P 500 is holding above key support consolidating within a narrow trading range.   Another rally attempt toward new highs is possible sooner rather than later. Continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls on any weakness looking for buying opportunities.  A buying opportunity has developed in the energy sector (XLE).  The short and intermediate trend has shifted from down to up.  As long as the XLE remains above 67.86 you can anticipate higher prices in the near term and risk to be limited.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.


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*******Article published by Bonnie Gortler in Systems and Forecasts April 13, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum
optimism is the best time to sell.
” ~John Templeton

New record closing highs seem to be a normal occurrence during 2017 as the Trump rally continues.  Equity markets have been going up on expectations of increased infrastructure spending, decreased regulation, and lower corporate taxes.  The advance has been broad, although some sectors have clearly been stronger than others.

Some major averages are near the top of their channels as some stocks have had hefty gains.  There are many favorable looking charting patterns, while others are in the process of the beginning stages of a parabolic advance.  This is a chart pattern in which prices rise (or fall) with an increasingly steep slope.   When the advance stops, a large decline follows that you want to avoid.

Our trading models remain neutral positive and the tape remains bullish.  The best kind of advance is the one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher, as investors wait for the decline which doesn’t happen.  This appears to be what is happening now.   The trend is your friend.  For now, enjoy the ride.

PowerShares QQQ ETF (Nasdaq 100 Index) Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Power Shares 100 (QQQ), an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index and its active trading channels.  The QQQ includes 100 of the largest domestic and international nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market based on market capitalization.

As of 02/13/17, Apple, (AAPL) is the largest holding comprising 11.83%, Microsoft Corp (MSFT) 8.25%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 6.53%, Facebook, Inc. Class A (FB) 5.15%. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG) 4.65% and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) 4.09%, totaling 40.50%.   All the top holdings have rebounded this year after being out of favor before the election.   Apple (AAPL), its largest holding has had significant gains already this year, and has higher upside projections that will help the QQQ, and has favorable implications for the technology area over the next several months.

Revisiting the article in the Systems and Forecasts newsletter on 01/13/17 “Breakout in Technology Looms”, QQQ looked poised for a breakout.  This indeed did happen.  The QQQ is getting close to its 130.00 objective, closing at 129.40 on 02/15/17.

It looks like the QQQ could start another leg up, going through 130.00 to potentially reach 139.00 (orange line), the next target.  As long as the QQQ is above the up trendline line, the trend is up.    The trend line is important; it coincides with the break out at 123.00 that is now acting as support.  For another leg up to start, the QQQ needs to close above 130.00 for 2days and declines should be contained between 1-3%.  If the QQQ falls below the up trendline my bullish outlook will be negated.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12, 26, 9) a technical indicator that measures momentum.   MACD is overbought, however still rising, and gaining momentum which is positive.   MACD has confirmed the price high suggesting even if the QQQQ would decline another rally attempt would occur.

QQQ Performance Will Be Helped By Apple: Long Term Trend Is Up

AAPL Monthly Price and Up Trend Line (Top), and MACD 12-26-9 (Bottom)

** Apple’s stock underwent a 7-for-1 split, giving 6 additional shares to each shareholder on 06/09/2014.  The stock closed at 645 becoming 92.00/per share.

The top chart is a price chart that shows the high-low-close each month of Apple since 2005.  The Black line is the prevailing key uptrend line.  As long as Apple’s price is above the uptrend line, the trend is up and further profit potential on the long side is likely.   Apple was under selling pressure since its high in April 2015, when it was out of favor by investors.  In September 2016, Apple broke its down trend (orange line), and investors stepped in to buy.   After its quarterly earnings were announced on 01/31/17, Apple gained 11.7% (121.35-135.60 as of 02/15/17 intraday) and then soared ahead breaking its all-time intraday high of $134.54 set in April 2015 on February 14, 2016.

The bottom half of the chart is MACD (12-26-9), a technical indicator that measures momentum.  MACD is on a buy, and has a very favorable pattern turning up from an oversold condition below 0, where good buying opportunities develop.  This certainly has been the case for Apple.

In 2009 MACD was oversold, below 0, and generated a buy.  MACD rose into 2011 while MACD went sideways into 2012 as Apple stock continued to rise from 11.76 to 100.72, +756% gain.   MACD turned down crossing its signal line in 2012, generating a sell in 2013.  Apple fell from 100.72 to 52.55, a 47.8% loss.  MACD then started to flatten out forming a rising double bottom formation (one of the most bullish formations to look for on charts and make money).  Apple rose from 52.55 to 134.54, +156.0% gain. MACD peaked in 2015, turning down, losing momentum and Apple fell from 134.54 to 89.47, a -33.5% loss.

Apple’s latest rise off of the bottom is from 89.47 to 135.50, a gain of 51.5%. The good news is the MACD pattern remains very bullish even with its rise to new highs.  Next objective is 155.00 and support is 127.00.  There has been a definite shift in investor sentiment since the election and belief the company will benefit from potential changes down the road by President Trump. Time will tell.

Summing Up:

Major averages have made new all-time highs, a common theme of 2017.  The advance that is taking place is the best kind of advance, one where pullbacks are very minor and price continues higher as investors wait for the decline.  The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did break out in January, and could well be on its way to another 7% gain.  The trend is up.  Apple, its largest component has a very favorable MACD pattern suggesting there is more room to the upside on top of its recent gains.   The trend is your friend. Enjoy the ride.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing Tips to More Wealth

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts February  16, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NYSE Composite Index all had a favorable start in 2017, breaking out to new record closing highs after 6 weeks spent consolidating within a tight trading range. The Dow made it through the psychological 20,000 milestone and the Transportation average confirmed the Dow Jones Industrials’ new high. International indices, which have struggled, came to life and have improving technical patterns.

However, in the past week the averages couldn’t hold onto all of their gains even though support levels remain intact. Our trading models remain neutral positive. Some signs of concern showed up the last few days in January. Investors’ selling was spurred by investors’ uncertainty about world events, interest rates rising, and potential disappointment in earnings by major companies including Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). Apple’s earnings were well received by investors. Apple’s stock rose sharply, now less than 5% from its all-time high with a very favorable long term monthly chart. Facebook rose on their earnings announcement lifting its stock to new highs, followed by some profit taking.

The concern is some profit taking after the S&P 500 stalled just below its key level at 2300. In addition small caps (Russell 2000 Index) and the financial sector (XLF and KRE) which had led the market higher since the election have now started to weaken.

What ETF to Track to Signal Further Gains or Trouble Ahead?

SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF Weekly Price and Trend Channels (Top), and RSI 14 (Bottom)

 

The top part of the chart shows the weekly Regional Banking Index (KRE), an exchange traded fund (ETF) that began in 2006. KRE tracks an equally weighted index of common stocks of leading regional banks or thrifts (savings and loan associations). As of 01/31/17 the top holdings of KRE are: M&T Bank Corporation (3.64%), PNC Financial Services Group I, (PNC) (3.64), Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) 3.60, Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 3.59 %, SunTrust Banks, Inc. (STI) 3.58%, BB&T Corporation (BBT) 3.57%, and Zions Bancorporation (ZION) 3.57% totaling 25.19%.

Notice the clear trading channel in the top chart (the three green lines). KRE is not for the faint of heart. It’s a volatile index that I monitor intraday for the trend of the market and potential trend changes. Another financial sector ETF to follow is the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), which is quieter than KRE. After the election, investors very quickly moved assets into the financial sector fueling the rally that rocketed KRE from 43.59 to 49.87 in one week, a 14.41% gain. Four weeks later KRE rose further to 56.29 a 12.87% gain, breaking through its trading channel surpassing the high made in November 2015.

However, KRE has stalled, consolidating for 9 weeks. It looks like KRE is at a critical juncture now.

A break above 57.00 would suggest KRE will challenge the upper channel at 59 over the next few weeks. If KRE can get through the upper channel a higher objective would be given and this would also have bullish implication for the overall market.

However, a break below its consolidation, 53.40 (red rectangle) would imply a potential test of 49.00

A break below 49.00 would suggest a serious decline is imminent.

The bottom half of the chart shows the Relative Strength Index, a measure of momentum developed by Welles Wilder. RSI is based on the ratio of upward price changes to downward price changes. RSI reached 82.43 its highest weekly reading since the ETF began in 2006. RSI readings of 70 or higher show strength and are most times considered bullish. Generally as long as RSI stays above 40, the trend is up.

When you have a powerful thrust as KRE did on its most recent breakout, this is normally not a sign of a top. Most times you would get a relatively contained pullback or sideways consolidation before another rally attempt would occur. It’s also a bullish sign the uptrend in RSI from 1/16/16 remains intact. RSI has lost some momentum, however its normal that momentum temporarily weakens after a huge rally before the next leg higher. As long as the uptrend is in effect the odds favor the bulls. If the downtrend is broken (black line) a warning sign would be given.

Summing Up:
The stock market is off to a good start in 2017 as many major averages have made new all-time highs. Our models remain neutral-positive. However, uncertainty about world events, interest rates rising, and company earnings remain in investor’s minds. The momentum of the rally since the election has slowed and the market is consolidating it gains. I recommend keeping an eye on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) for a sign of further strength or weakness that would give the clue of a potential change. For now the bulls remain in control.

If you have questions or comments on this article, please feel free to contact me at bgortler@signalert.com; phone: 1-516-829-6444. I would love to hear from you.

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts February 3, 2017

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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Many stocks finished October down for the month.  The weakness extended early in November where the S&P 500 index was down 9 consecutive days with concerns about the outcome of the presidential election.  A two day bounce followed, alleviating the oversold condition that was created.  As the votes were gathered investors were nervous and the overnight futures were down sharply suggesting a lower opening on Wednesday.  During the night, Donald Trump was named president.  The panic was gone by the time the market opened.

Many market averages rallied strongly off their lows. There was a split market. Sectors such as Health and Finance moved higher, and other sectors were under pressure such as Utilities, Emerging Markets, Consumer Staples and Real Estate.   Many investors, institutions and hedge funds were surprised by the outcome and had to change their investments quickly, or decide they wanted to be invested now that the election was complete.  It’s still early to forecast what is ahead.  Our trading models are in a neutral positive condition entering the most favorable seasonal period of the year, suggesting downside risk is limited.

You can expect more wide intraday trading swings in the market until the dust settles. This could take some time.   A test of the lows over the next 3-6 weeks would be a safer buying opportunity if investors shift from buyers to seller.

What to Monitor Now for a Safer Entry

  • Monitor overseas markets to see if they move higher than 11/09/16 close.  Watch the following international ETF’s, Ishares China (FXI), Emerging Markets (EEM) and Mexico (EWW).
  • Look for intraday trading swings to be less than 1% in the S&P 500 (SPY) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM).
  • Long term interest rates stop rising.  Watch TLT iShares Barclays 20+ Yr. Treasury Bond (ETF).
  • High Yield Bond Mutual Funds turn up and take out their recent highs. Use (HYG) or (JNK) as a benchmark.
  • Momentum in intermediate and long term charts to turn more favorable, strengthening instead of weakening.
  • An improvement in market breadth daily and on a weekly basis.
  • Watch to see if the technology sector becomes a leader over the S&P 500. Watch the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Semiconductors HOLDR (SMH).  Also keep an eye on Apple, which has been under some selling pressure the past few weeks.
  • When the market declines notice the movement in VIX (an index that measures fear).  Look if VIX accelerates quickly or it moves up quietly.  When the market falls it would be a bullish sign if VIX moves lower.

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly Price And Channel

110916-weekly-newsletter

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. The S&P 500 (SPY) broke below its trading channel breaking the uptrend (green line). The SPY looked like it would go lower however; there was no follow through to the downside and after the election reversed sharply higher.

What a difference a few days can make. An explosive rally developed after making a low during the night of the presidential election, the S&P 500 (SPY) closed at 216.50 on 11/9/16. The SPY is in the process of testing resistance between 217.00 and 220.00 from July 2016 highs (blue circle).  If the S&P 500 (SPY) can get through resistance, it could potentially go to the upper channel at 228.00.  If the market turns down, support is at 214.00 followed by 212.00 and 197.00.

The lower portion of the chart is the 12-26-9 MACD, a measure of momentum. It was a good sign MACD confirmed the high in July before generating a sell suggesting another attempt at the high would be made.  Momentum has stopped accelerating downwards, and has started to flatten, both good signs. Notice however that MACD is not in an oversold condition where major bottoms take place.  If the S&P 500 (SPY) does rise and break out to a new yearly high and touch the upper channel, there is a good chance MACD will not confirm and form a negative divergence.

Summing Up:

Investors’ perception changed quickly from bearish to bullish after the election upset by our new President Donald Trump.  The S&P 500 (SPY) rose sharply and is again challenging resistance at 217-220 area.  The upside target for the S&P 500 (SPY) is 228.00. Intermediate momentum indicators are not in position for a major bottom and not likely to confirm the recent strength, therefore upside potential could be limited once the dust settles. Stock selection is very important now, as the market is split. Investors are moving out of defensive sectors, market breadth is weak and new lows are increasing. More wide intraday swings are expected to continue. I recommend reviewing your holdings and not being overweight in one particular sector. Don’t rush into buying stocks; look for a safer entry in 3-6 weeks to add to your investments.

I would love to hear from you. Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com to share your thoughts or ask me any questions you might have.

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts November 10, 2016

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Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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No drama has occurred in the stock market as October comes to a close.  Investors continue rotating assets among different sectors as the major averages remain within a fairly tight trading range. For the short term the market is oversold and has favorable momentum patterns suggesting another attempt toward the highs is possible.  Supporting the market is strength in the Technology (QQQ) sector, trading near their highs for the year.   A big concern I have is the weakening momentum oscillators on the intermediate and long term charts on many stocks and several market indices.

As long as the support levels remain in-tact, the bulls remain in control.  Each time the market trades near the top or bottom of their range, prices stall and move in the opposite direction.  On 10/13/16, there was a small scare when the S&P 500 (SPY) slightly violated support at 212.00 intraday, tripping stops by investors. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell to a low of 211.21, however no heavy selling followed.  On the same day the S&P broke below support, the Russell 2000 Index (IWM) held above its key support at 117.00. These are very important levels that need to hold.

Stock selection now is more important since market breadth has weakened considerably since the blast off from the February lows. There has been a lot of selling pressure in October by investors in health care (XLV), utilities (XLU) and real estate (IYR).  Recently there were 104 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange Index making new 52 week highs, diverging from their peak reading earlier this year in July when there were 414 new highs. This is not a sign of a healthy broad market.  The good news is 9/22/16, the New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance Decline Line made a new high.  It’s very rare a market top occurs without at least another rally attempt toward new highs.   As long as support levels hold, look for another attempt for the stock market to break out to the upside.

What Charts You Want To Watch Now:

 

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Daily With Channel (Top) and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

 102516-spy-daily-use

The chart on the top is a daily SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S.   The S&P 500 (SPY) is 1% from its lower channel and near its recent low.  On 10/13/16, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell below support at 212.00, and made an intraday low of 211.21. Since then, there has been an unconvincing rally staying within a tight range. There is resistance above at 217.00. If the S&P 500 goes above 217.00 this will get the bulls excited.  Under 212.00 the odds are likely the bears will rule and if the S&P 500 falls below 211.00 then expect heavy selling.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum.   One of my favorite technical patterns has formed a positive divergence suggesting the S&P 500 will go higher.   A positive divergence is when you make a low in price (top chart) and the oscillator doesn’t make a lower low, instead the oscillator reading is higher showing positive momentum.   This is exactly what is happening now in MACD.   An added bonus, there is not only a positive divergence but there is also a slight penetration of the down trend. Until the uptrend is broken, give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.

 The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly Price And Channel

102416-spy-weekly

The chart above shows that the S&P 500 (SPY) has broken out of its trading channel, penetrating resistance in July 2016 (red circle).   The S&P 500 moved higher at first and then pulled back retracing its breakout and now is moving sideways.  Notice on the recent sell off, the S&P 500 fell slightly below the channel making a low of 211.21 holding just the above up-trend line.  For now, the intermediate trend is intact (the green line) and the trend is up.   If violated it would not be a good sign for the final week of October or the start of November.  Next support is the middle channel at 197.00, 9.35% lower from today’s close at 214.12.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) Weekly Price With Channel

102416-iwm-weekly

The chart above shows the weekly iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) which is made up of companies with a market capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.   The Russell 2000 (IWM) rose sharply from its February bottom. The IWM failed on 9/19/16 at 125.88 to penetrate its high made on 06/22/15 at 129.10.  The IWM turned down but is holding above the middle channel and above the uptrend line (blue line).   Both the middle channel and the uptrend line are in the same area acting as support. As is the case with the S&P 500 (SPY) the intermediate trend remains up for the IWM. The upside channel objective is 138.00.    As long as the IWM is above 117.00, higher prices are likely, however if the IWM falls below for two days on a closing basis, the intermediate trend would turn negative and the odds of a potential decline rise dramatically.

Summing Up:

The tug of war between the bulls and bears has not been decided.  The S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remain in their trading range.   The market is short term oversold, and there is a positive divergence on the daily S&P 500 (SPY), bullish.   As long as the support level remains in-tact, I recommend giving the benefit of the doubt to the bulls.    If the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below 211.00 for two days expect the bears to come out of hiding and wider market intraday swings.   Another point of reference is watching the Russell 2000, (IWM) to hold above its key support at 117.00.  For now, the tug of war between the bulls and bears remain.

I would love to hear from you.   Please call me at 516-829-6444 or email at bgortler@signalert.com sharing your thoughts, or ask me any questions you might have.

If you like this article, then you will love this! 

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*******Article in Systems and Forecasts October 26, 2016

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Download a Free chapter of my book Journey To Wealth

 

Disclaimer: Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed that the information provided is a statement of fact. Nor can we guarantee the results of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels. Past performance does not guarantee any future results.

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The stock market has quietly advanced during the first half of August. The daily price movements over the past 25 days in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and the Nasdaq 100 have been extremely small, ranging from 0.28% – 0.43% as prices have moved higher. As long as this phenomenon continues of low day to day volatility, downside risk will be contained.

Tape action remains encouraging, many major indices have broken through resistance levels that were in place for over a year and have made new all-time highs. Market breadth has supported the advance with The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) advance-decline line also making a new high. A market top rarely happens at a final price high that is confirmed by the (NYSE) Advance-Decline Line.
The August through October period historically is not an ideal low risk environment to be invested in the stock market. During the third quarter of an election year, like now, the negative bias is not true.
Instead, it’s positive for the market.

Our models continue to suggest favorable market conditions, although not at the level where risk is
at its lowest. There are no blatant warning signs of a potential serious decline ahead; however there are a few small non-confirmations. I would like to see the transportation average confirm the Dow’s recent high and for the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index to outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) and make a new all-time high.

All in all, the tape remains favorable, the bulls remain in control and I believe the advance will continue.

What Are The Charts Saying?

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly With Channel (Top) and 12-26-9 Week MACD (Bottom)

081716 SPY WEEKLY

The chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) ETF that is comprised of 500 stocks of the largest companies in the U.S. As of 08/16/16 its top 4 holdings in the S&P 500 were Apple Inc. (AAPL) 3.12%, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 2.40%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), 1.92% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 1.79%. Investing in the S&P 500 (SPY) gives you a broad representation of the overall large-cap U.S. stock market.

The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke out of its trading channel beginning December 2014 after penetrating the 212-214.00 resistance on 07/11/16. Old resistance is now key support if a pullback would arise. It would be bullish if the S&P 500 (SPY) remains above this level, increasing the odds of the SPY reaching the upside target of 228.00, 5% higher. Another point of reference to watch is if the uptrend remains intact from the February lows. The green trendline in the chart shows that this uptrend remains intact. As long as 204.00 is not violated, the intermediate trend is up. Remember the trend is your friend.

On the other hand, if SPY breaks below 212.00 this would be an early warning that the intermediate trend is in process of changing, and risk increasing. If the uptrend is broken, the middle channel at 197.00 would act as the next support level.

The bottom half of the chart shows MACD, a measure of momentum. MACD is on a buy, rising, above 0, and has confirmed the price high made in the S&P 500 (SPY). MACD needs to be monitored to see if and when it turns down.

This would be an advanced warning that momentum is weakening and that a potential change of trend could occur.

MACD is now somewhat extended, but no negative divergences exist and the uptrend remains in effect.

Therefore, no need to worry yet, continue to enjoy the ride.

Summing Up:

The stock market advance quietly continues. Our models remain favorable. Market breadth and price action is positive. The advance decline line has confirmed new highs in the S&P 500 (SPY) suggesting a final top most likely hasn’t been made.

Major market averages have broken through resistance to the upside after many attempts earlier in the year.

The uptrend from the February lows remains in-tact. The trend is our friend.

In the near term, unless the S&P 500 (SPY) closes below 212.00 for two days, the benefit of the doubt goes to the bulls for the S&P 500 (SPY) to continue higher toward the upside objective of 228.00.

I would love to hear from you. Please feel free to share your thoughts, comments or ask any question you might have. Call me at 1-516-829-6444 or send an email to bgortler@signalert.com.

If you like this article, then you will love this!  Click here for a free report: Top 10 investing tips to more wealth.

 

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts August 18, 2016

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Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical result and is not meant to represent the actual performance of any particular investment. Future results cannot be guaranteed. Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed either in any form that the above information is a statement of fact, of opinion, or the result of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments discussed above for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels.

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For the first five months of 2015 the S&P 500 (SPY) traded within a tight trading range that resolved to the downside in May, not amounting to much, and short lived. No real follow-through to the upside occurred, and then a 13.4% decline occurred in August. Healthy pullbacks along the way occurred as the market consolidated its gains.

The wall of worry remains. Sharp, quick trading swings up and down would keep one up at night, leaving one on pins and needles wondering if and when a major correction would occur.

So far none has happened and all is well.

Since the last newsletter on 11/12/15, the S&P 500 (SPY) left some clues indicating a further rally, showing its best week since October 2014, gaining over 3%. The odds favor the bulls over the next several weeks, with favorable seasonality upon us now, but the tape action needs to improve for the rally to be sustained into the New Year.

It’s been a challenge to be profitable. Few stocks are making new highs, and many stocks are down more than 10% for the year. There is room to the upside for the S&P 500 (SPY) along with other major averages if the rally could broaden in scope and penetrate the overhead resistance. With favorable seasonality here, I am optimistic that resistance will be broken soon.

Let’s Review the Tape Action of the 10 Clues for Further Guidance
New 52-week lows on the New York Stock Exchange were mostly above 100 in recent trading sessions. On 11/24/15 the reading was 67, the lowest since 11/05/15. I would like to see new 52-week lows under 50. It would be even better if the new 52-week lows could fall and stay below 25.

An optimistic sign is that the 10 Day Ratio of NH / (NH+NL) on the NYSE has turned up from an oversold condition, with a bullish double bottom formation in place.

Market breadth on the New York Stock Exchange continues to be disturbing even with last week’s advance. A consistent reading of more than 500 advances is still needed and would be a good sign of further gains ahead for a broader sustainable rally.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (a measurement of fear) has gone below 19.00. The VIX as of 11/25/15 intraday is at 15.40. This is a good sign.

During the recent advance there was not a trading session when there was 9 to 1 more upside than downside volume on the New York Stock Exchange. On 11/16/15 the reading was close with 8.66:1.

Overseas markets appear stable but are not gaining in relative strength compared to the U.S.equity’s. Emerging Markets (EEM) as a benchmark remain above 33, but so far has not gone through the key level above 36.00. (On 11/25/15 intraday the EEM is at 34.67)

The Value Line Geometric Composite, an unweighted average of roughly 1700 U.S. stocks, remains below 473.00, the level that would imply another rally attempt will occur. (On 11/25/15 intraday the Value Line Geometric Composite was at 467.06).

More risky areas of the market are acting reasonably well. Healthcare (XLV), Biotechnology (XBI), Technology (QQQ), and Semiconductor stocks (SMH), are holding their ground well and look like they will move higher. No selling pressure in these areas is a plus for the overall market. Continue to observe if these sectors are stronger than the S&P 500 (SPY).

High yield funds and high yield ETF’s have been falling while U.S. equities were rising. The good news is December and January are historically good months for high yield bonds. I’m looking for more interest in this area from bond investors who are looking for yield. Continue to watch how the hi yield ETF’s (HYG) and (JNK) are doing intraday. They closed at 82.87 and 35.26 on 11/24/15.

A bullish signal of further advance ahead, is if the Russell 2000 (IWM) is stronger than the S&P 500 (SPY). In addition if the Russell 2000 (IWM) could get through resistance at 120.00, an upside objective to 130.00 is given. The intraday reading on 11/25/15 is 118.79.

What Do The Charts Say?

Daily (IWM)/ (SPY) Ratio (Top) MACD of IWM/SPY Ratio (Bottom)112515 iwmspy ratio daily

The top part of the chart on the right is the daily Russell 2000 /S&P 500 ratio (IWM/SPY ratio). A rising line means the IWM is stronger, and if falling, the S&P 500 is stronger.

As of 11/24/15 the ratio is rising. I am updating again because I feel it’s very significant for the small caps to participate for the rally to be sustainable. The Russell 2000 (IWM/SPY) ratio downtrend line was broken (orange line) to the upside.

Daily charts tend to give advanced notice of a potential trend change, however sometimes they are too early which was the case when a turn-up took place at the end of October. Once again, the ratio has turned up, but this time a bullish double bottom has developed. Another positive sign is the confirmation of the weekly ratio that has also turned up. (The chart is not shown).

The lower chart shows the MACD of the IWM/SPY ratio. A bullish rising double bottom is in place. The downtrend from June of 2015 (pink line) is close to being broken and could occur in a few days. The Weekly IWM/S&P ratio has also turned up, confirming the short term change in strength. As of 11/24/15 the IWM/SPY ratio is rising.

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Weekly with Operating Channels and MACD (Bottom)

112015 spy week channel
The top part of the chart above is the weekly SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) showing the operating channels that are acting as support and resistance areas. A break through the resistance area, above 211.50 and 213.78 would give further upside of the S&P 500 (SPY), to the channel objective of 229-230 (the green line). If the market were to decline now instead of going up, the next support area is 197.00. If this support area doesn’t hold, a more serious decline toward the old lows would occur near the lower channel at 180.00 (pink line).

The lower portion of the chart is the technical indicator MACD, (a momentum indicator). MACD is below 0, in oversold territory and now on a buy. The downtrend (green line) remains in effect for now and potentially could take 3-4 weeks of strength in the S&P 500 to be violated to the upside.

Summing Up:

The market has stabilized, as it rides along a wall of worry. U.S. equities are still digesting last week’s gains while investors position their portfolios for the final weeks of the 2015.

The market is not out of the woods yet, with market risk higher than I would like. Our equity models remain overall neutral, but if stocks continue to rise, the models would uptick to neutral-positive.

I am optimistic since we are in a time of the year that is historically very favorable for stocks. Tape action is starting to improve. Small caps are showing some signs of leadership over the S&P 500.

Many market indices are still below their overhead resistance, but could change soon. Follow the tape action that will give you clues to the strength of the advance. Watch the price levels of the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) to see if investors are more interested in buying for a potential year-end rally. A break through 211.50 and 213.78 on the S&P 500 (SPY) would give further upside to the channel objective of 229-230 and if the Russell 2000 (IWM) could get through resistance at 120.00, an upside objective to 130.00 is given.

I wish you and your family a very happy Thanksgiving and a healthy wealthy happy holiday season.

It’s almost the end of the year. Need a second pair of eyes to take a look at your portfolio? Please feel free to call me at 1-844-829-6229 or email me at bgortler@signalert.com. I’d be happy to help.

*******Article in Systems and Forecasts November 25, 2015

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This is a hypothetical result and is not meant to represent the actual performance of any particular investment. Future results cannot be guaranteed. Although the information is made with a sincere effort for accuracy, it is not guaranteed either in any form that the above information is a statement of fact, of opinion, or the result of following any of the recommendations made herein. Readers are encouraged to meet with their own advisors to consider the suitability of investments discussed above for their own particular situations and for determination of their own risk levels.