Bonnie’s Market Update 8/15/25

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A positive week for the major indexes. Seven of the eleven S&P SPDR sectors were higher. Health Care (XLV) and Communications (XLC) were the strongest, while Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) were the weakest sectors. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose +0.98%.

S&P SPDR Sector ETFs Performance Summary 8/8/25 – 08/15/25

081525 weekly SPDR Sector

Source: Stockcharts.com

Figure 2: Bonnie’s ETFs Watch List Performance Summary 8/8/25 – 08/15/25

Source: Stockcharts.com

Biotechnology rose sharply, joined by Small Cap Growth and Small Cap Value. International markets moved higher, while Silver and Gold fell.

 Charts to Watch:

Figure 3: Fear & Greed Index

081525 CNN Fear and Greed Index

Source. CNN.com

Investor sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index (a contrarian indicator), rose over the past two weeks to 64, indicating a shift to Greed from neutral. If it rises to Extreme Greed, implying too much optimism, it would be negative in the short run.

NYSE New Lows are in the Lowest-Risk Zone

Figure 4: NYSE New Lows

081525 NYSE New Lows

Source: Stockcharts.com

New Lows On The NYSE peaked at 1167 on 4/7/25, then contracted sharply as the market bottomed in April.

New Lows contracted closing at 20 last week, falling into the very low-risk zone where prices tend to rise. It is positive in the short term if New Lows stay between 25 and 50. On the other hand, if new lows increase above 150, it would be short-term negative.

Learn more about the significance of New Lows in my book, Journey to Wealth, published on Amazon. For a chapter preview of Journey To Wealth, visit here.

Figure 5: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

081525 VIX Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of fear, peaked on April 07.

The VIX has fallen in August, closing at 15.09 after a rise to 20.38 on 8/1. A reading above would be the first sign that intraday volatility is likely to increase.

Above 25.00 would likely imply that VIX continues to rise if investors become cautious. VIX could jump between 32 and 40 quickly if there is no new information indicating there will be no cut in interest rates in September.

Learn how to implement a powerful wealth-building mindset and charting strategies to help you grow your wealth in the comfort of your home in my eCourse Wealth Through Investing Made Simple. Learn more here.

  MORE CHARTS FOR YOU TO REVIEW. GO HERE.

 Money Flow on the SPY Flow Turns Down

 Figure 6: S&P 500 Weekly (SPY) and 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

081525 SPY Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 (SPY) remains in an intermediate uptrend from October 2022. After hitting a low in April 2025, SPY consolidated its gains and then broke out of its channel, followed by making new all-time highs.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a buy, above 0. MACD can generate a sell signal if there is weakness. A weekly close below 634.66 would imply a pullback toward 620.00 and potentially more.

The MFI Index has turned down and appears to have peaked, closing at 76.50.

Summing Up:

After hitting the short-term projection of 635.00, the SPY retraced slightly and is rising again at a slower pace. The intermediate upside projection at 700.00 remains. That said, a weekly close below 620.00 would negate the intermediate upside projection of 700.00.

Discover how to cultivate a powerful wealth-building mindset and effective charting strategies to grow your wealth from the comfort of your own home in my eCourse, Wealth Through Investing Made Simple. Learn more here.

Figure 7: S&P 500 Daily (SPY) Price (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

081525 SPY Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The upside objective of 635.00 for the SPY daily was hit on Friday, August 25, followed by a test of the June breakout and 622.00 support.

The S&P 500 (SPY) rose +0.98% last week, making a new all-time high on 8/14/25. SPY remains above the 50 – and 200-day moving averages. Support is at 639.00, 635.00, 620.00, 610.00, 592.00, and 585.00. Two closes above 643.00 would imply further gains towards 670.00, followed by 700.00.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, rising above 0. The negative divergence (a higher high in price with a lower high in MACD) persists. No fresh buy can occur until MACD falls below 0.

The Money Flow Index (lower chart) broke on Friday the key 50 support level since April and is trending down, which is considered short-term negative.

Summing Up:

The bulls have been in control. SPY has hit its daily price objective, the upper channel, but weakening momentum and declining money flow continue to be worrisome. The intermediate trend is extended, the risk of a pullback is on the rise, and could occur at any time.

I invite you to join my Charting Facebook Group. Learn more about it here: Wealth Through Market Charts.

Small Caps were strong early last week.

Figure 8: Daily iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

081525 IWM Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

IWM had broken the November 24 downtrend (green line) and appeared to have successfully tested the breakout, but there was no significant follow-through to the upside. The sellers reappeared, but the buyers stepped in last week.

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) joined the rally, up +3.09%, last week, closing above the 50-day moving average (blue rectangle) and the 200-day moving average (red rectangle), implying underlying strength.

Support 221.00, 214.00, 212.00, and 205.00. Resistance is 235.00 and 243.00.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, above 0, not yet in position to generate a fresh buy.

The Money Flow (lower chart) reached 80 earlier in May and July, indicating an overbought condition but did not on the recent rise and is now turning down.

In case you missed my interview with Ryan Redfern, brought to you by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), you can view it here.

The pace of gains of Semiconductors has slowed.

Figure 9: Daily Semiconductors (SMH) (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

081525 SMH Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The top chart shows the Daily Semiconductor (SMH) ETF, which is concentrated mainly in US-based Mega-Cap Semiconductor companies. SMH tends to be a leading indicator for the market when investors are willing to take on increased risk, and the opposite is true when the market is falling.

SMH rose +0.72% last week, continuing to trade within a tight range and closing above the rising 50-day MA (blue rectangle) and the 200-day MA (red rectangle), indicating underlying strength. However, the pace of gains has slowed in recent weeks.

Support is at 290.00, 282.00, 272.00, 261.00, 256.00, and 242.00. Resistance is at 302.00 with an upside objective of 315.00. Two closes below 265.00 would negate the upside objective.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal. After sideways momentum above 0, and generating repeated sell signals, MACD is falling, suggesting that risk is on the rise.

The Money Flow (lower chart) has declined since June, after reaching above 80. Note that the intermediate chart of SMH (not shown) has also hit 80 and has fallen below.

SMH can be highly volatile. If there is leadership in Semiconductors (SMH), it would have a short-term positive impact. On the other hand, if SMH is weak and closes below 282.00, a pullback is likely to trigger stops and profit-taking.

Semiconductor Relative Strength Ratio vs. QQQ Peak?

Figure 10: VanEck Vectors Semiconductor/Invesco QQQ Trust (SMH/QQQ) Weekly Relative Strength Ratio

081525 SMH QQQ Relative strength ratio Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The top part of the chart is the weekly VanEck Vectors Semiconductor/Invesco QQQ Trust (SMH/QQQ) Index Ratio. A rising line indicates the SMH is stronger, and if falling, the QQQ is stronger.

The SMH/QQQ ratio peaked in July. If this relationship continues, look for potential weakness in SMH, which could spread to the Technology Sector.

Learn more about Relative Strength Ratios in my eCourse, Wealth Through Investing Made Simple, and more here.

 Figure 11: QQQ Daily Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Price (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Chart shows the daily Invesco QQQ, an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rose +0.49% last week, hitting its daily objective of 580.00 with a high of 583.32 on 8/13/22. QQQ remains above the 50-day MA (blue rectangle) and the 200-day MA (red rectangle).

Support is at 570.00, 564.00, 550.00, and 540.00. Resistance is at 583.00.

The daily MACD remains on a sell signal above 0, with repeat sell signals on declining momentum with a negative divergence.

Money Flow is falling and continues to make lower highs but holding support (brown line) from May.

Summing Up:

The major averages all finished higher, and the Dow made its first all-time high of the year. Small Caps participating in the advance are a positive if further gains can continue. There is no doubt that the market has been resilient. The buy-the-dip mentality persists. Since the April advance has created an overbought condition on a short, intermediate, and long-term basis. Speculation in memes, IPOs, and penny stocks is concerning. Most gains for the week were from Tuesday’s rally. This week is the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which could be a catalyst for a pullback and increased volatility if there is any hint of no rate cut in September, which investors are counting on. August, September, and October have historically been volatile months. Take a moment to evaluate your portfolio and ensure you’re not taking on more risk than fits your lifestyle. Manage your risk, and your wealth will grow.

If you would like to get to know each other better and grow your wealth, schedule your Wealth Building Free 30-minute Strategy Session today. Register Here.

Bonnie S. Gortler

Bonnie Gortler, Consultant, Coach, and Author specializing in Wealth and Well-Being, is a successful stock market professional who has been instrumental in managing multi-million-dollar client portfolios within a top-rated investment firm during her over 35-year corporate career. As the author of "Journey to Wealth" anand "Journey to Well-Being", Bonnie is dedicated to teaching the importance of risk management and achieving true financial well-being by integrating both the technical and mental aspects of investing. With an M.B.A. and certification as a life coach, Bonnie combines her passion for coaching, consulting, and blogging to inspire people globally. Her powerful techniques and winning mindset help others experience personal growth and financial success. Explore wealth-building tips, personal development strategies, and more at BonnieGortler.com, and discover how you can enhance your wealth and well-being.

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