Bonnie’s Market Update 8/29/25

A fourth winning month for the S&P 500. For the week, five of the eleven S&P SPDR sectors were higher. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were the strongest sectors, while Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) were the weakest. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) rose +0.29%.

S&P SPDR Sector ETFs Performance Summary 8/22/25 – 08/29/25

082925 weekly SPDR Sectors

Source: Stockcharts.com

Figure 2: Bonnie’s ETFs Watch List Performance Summary 8/22/25 – 08/29/25

082925 Bonnie’s ETF Watch

Source: Stockcharts.com

Gold and Silver led, while Small Cap Value and Small Cap Growth held onto significant gains from last week. International markets were under selling pressure, and Semiconductors and Technology stocks were out of favor for the second straight week.

Figure 3: 2025 Monthly Return

Jan-Aug 2025 SPY QQQ IWM Performance

Source: Statmuse

Technology underperformed as the AI stocks pulled back from their highs. IWM outperformed SPY and QQQ in August as a rotation into small caps began. Year-to-date through August 29, 2025, the S&P 500 has returned 10.72%, the Nasdaq-100 is up 11.87%, and the Russell 2000 has gained 6.96% (all including dividends).

Charts to Watch:

Figure 4: Fear & Greed Index

082925 CNN Fear and Greed Index

Source. CNN.com

Investor sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index (a contrarian indicator), rose slightly to 64, remaining in a Greed phase. If it rises to Extreme Greed, it would imply too much optimism and be considered negative.

NYSE New Lows remain in the Lowest-Risk Zone

Figure 5: NYSE New Lows

082925 NYSE New Lows

Source: Stockcharts.com

New Lows On The NYSE peaked at 1167 on 4/7/25, then contracted sharply as the market bottomed in April.

New Lows ticked up slightly to close Friday, 8/29 at 7, remaining in the very low-risk zone where prices tend to rise. It will remain positive in the short term if New Lows stay between 25 and 50. On the other hand, if new lows begin to increase and exceed 150, it would be a negative sign.

Learn more about the significance of New Lows in my book, Journey to Wealth, published on Amazon. For a chapter preview of Journey To Wealth, visit here.

 Figure 6: CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

082925 VIX Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of fear, peaked on April 7.

The VIX rose last week, closing at 15.36. A reading above 20.38 (8/1 VIX reading) would be the first sign that intraday volatility is more likely to increase. Above 25.00 would likely imply that the VIX will continue to rise and could jump between 32 and 40 quickly if there is any unexpected news.

Learn how to implement a powerful wealth-building mindset and charting strategies to help you grow your wealth in the comfort of your home in my eCourse Wealth Through Investing Made Simple. Learn more here.

CHARTS CHARTS AND MORE CHARTS FOR YOU TO REVIEW. GO HERE.

 The SPY Intermediate Trend Remains Up

 Figure 7: S&P 500 Weekly (SPY) and 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 SPY Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 (SPY) remains in an intermediate uptrend from October 2022. After hitting a low in April 2025, SPY consolidated its gains and then broke out of its channel, followed by SPY making new all-time highs. Not much movement for the SPY last week.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a buy, above 0, and rising.

The MFI Index remains extended above 80.

Summing Up:

After hitting the daily projection of 635.00, the SPY continues resilient, with only a minor retracement. The intermediate upside projection remains at 700.00. A weekly close below 632.95 would imply a pullback toward 620.00 and potentially more.

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 Figure 8: S&P 500 Daily (SPY) Price (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 SPY Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The S&P 500 (SPY) traded in a tight range, falling by -0.64% on Friday, while continuing to hold support and close above the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Support remains at 633.00, 622.00, 610.00, and 585.00. Two closes above 647.00 would imply further gains towards 670.00, followed by 700.00, the intermediate objective.

MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, above 0, and moving sideways. The negative divergence (a higher high in price with a lower high in MACD) persists. No fresh buy can occur until the MACD falls below 0.

The Money Flow Index (lower chart) has broken slightly below 50 and is falling, remaining unfavorable until it turns up and closes above 55.

Summing Up:

The S&P 500 continues to hold support on declines, despite the daily chart showing weakening momentum and declining Money Flow, which remains worrisome. The intermediate trend has a higher objective of 700.00 if SPY closes above 633.00. For now, the bulls get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

I invite you to join my Charting Facebook Group. Learn more about it here: Wealth Through Market Charts.

Small Caps continue to outperform 

Figure 9: Daily iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 IWM Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM) was up 0.14% for the week after gaining +3.39% the previous week. IWM has demonstrated strength, with a clear uptrend in August (black line), and closed above both the 50-day moving average (blue rectangle) and the 200-day moving average (red rectangle).

Support remains at 227.00, 220.00, 214.00, and 210.00. Resistance remains at 243.00.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, having just missed falling below 0 to generate a fresh buy signal.

The Money Flow (lower chart) reached 80 earlier in May and July, indicating an overbought condition; however, it did not reach 80 in August, and last week, MFI turned down. If interest rates are cut in September and later in the year, IWM is likely to continue rising.

In case you missed my interview with Ryan Redfern, brought to you by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), you can view it here.

Figure 10: Weekly iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Price (Top),12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 IWM Weekly

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Russell 2000 (IWM) remains in an intermediate uptrend, now close to the high made in December 2024.

Support is at 232.00 and 220.00. If IWM closes above 220.00, the bulls get the benefit of the doubt.

The Semiconductors Continue to Lag.

 Figure 11: Daily Semiconductors (SMH) (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 SMH Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The top chart shows the Daily Semiconductor (SMH) ETF, which is concentrated mainly in US-based Mega-Cap Semiconductor companies. SMH tends to be a leading indicator for the market when investors are willing to take on increased risk, and the opposite is true when the market is falling.

SMH fell -1.14% last week, its second consecutive decline, closing above the 290.00 support level with only a minor penetration. It continued to trade within a tight range, closing above both the rising 50-day MA (blue rectangle) and the 200-day MA (red rectangle).

Support is at 282.00, 272.00, 265.00, 256.00, and 249.00. Resistance is at 302.00 with an upside objective of 315.00. Two closes below 265.00 would negate the upside objective.

The MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal, not yet positioned for a fresh buy, but is approaching a potential buy signal. During strong moves, MACD sometimes will not fall below 0, and turn up.

The Money Flow (lower chart) has trended lower since June.

SMH can be highly volatile. If Semiconductors (SMH) continue to hold onto gains, consolidate, and turn higher, it would have a short-term positive impact and test the 303.00 level. On the other hand, if SMH is weak and closes below 282.00, a pullback to between 265.00 and 272.00 is possible.

Figure 12: Weekly Semiconductors (SMH) (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 SMH Weekly

The Semiconductors (SMH) have had a substantial run-up from the April Low (purple line) and have now broken the uptrend (purple rectangle). SMH remains in a tight range, and NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings are now out of the way.

MACD (middle chart), a measure of momentum, remains on a buy above 0, and is flattening and could turn up for a second leg higher on any strength towards its daily objective of 315.00.

As long as 282.00 support holds, SMH is likely to move higher.

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QQQ Cycle Bottom Due in Early September

 Figure 13: QQQ Daily Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) Price (Top), 12-26-9 MACD (Middle), and Money Flow (Bottom)

082925 QQQ Daily

Source: Stockcharts.com

The Chart shows the daily Invesco QQQ, an exchange-traded fund based on the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell -0.93% last week, after hitting its daily objective of 580.00 with a high of 583.32 on 8/13/22. QQQ closed at 570.00 support, coinciding with the May uptrend, and remains in an uptrend (purple solid line).

Support is at 558.00, 551.00, and 545.00. Resistance is at 575.00 and 583.00.

MACD (middle chart) remains on a sell signal above 0, in a downtrend with declining momentum, and has not fallen below 0. However, it is a sign of strength.

Money Flow (bottom chart) is also in a downtrend. A turn up breaking the downtrend would be bullish.

Although there is downside momentum and falling MoneyFlow, QQQ remains in a trading range with a cycle bottom expected in early September.

Summing Up:

A positive month of August for all the major averages. Small-cap stocks have been performing strongly and are gaining relative strength, which supports the broader market. The intermediate trend on the major averages and New Lows on the New York Stock Exchange remains low, implying low risk. Technology and Semiconductors have weakened recently and have stayed in a trading range. Although historically a down month, the market could surprise to the upside with a cycle bottom due in early September for Technology. For now, the bulls get the benefit of the doubt. Manage your risk, and your wealth will grow.

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Bonnie S. Gortler

Bonnie Gortler, Consultant, Coach, and Author specializing in Wealth and Well-Being, is a successful stock market professional who has been instrumental in managing multi-million-dollar client portfolios within a top-rated investment firm during her over 35-year corporate career. As the author of "Journey to Wealth" anand "Journey to Well-Being", Bonnie is dedicated to teaching the importance of risk management and achieving true financial well-being by integrating both the technical and mental aspects of investing. With an M.B.A. and certification as a life coach, Bonnie combines her passion for coaching, consulting, and blogging to inspire people globally. Her powerful techniques and winning mindset help others experience personal growth and financial success. Explore wealth-building tips, personal development strategies, and more at BonnieGortler.com, and discover how you can enhance your wealth and well-being.

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